Articles

Umpire Extremes in MLB - Will They Continue?

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Jun 27, 2025

I keep a close eye on home plate umpire statistics in a database. These home plate umpires have a major role in how the games go with the power they have behind the plate. I want to look at five umpire extremes so far this year. Are these extremes likely to continue or not? Let’s take a look. Cory Blaser (13 Unders 3 Overs) Blaser has been calling a bunch of low scoring games this year. He has a pretty high strikes called rate of 65.05%. He has a very high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.90. These are two key long term signs of an under umpire. Blaser also has a history of being a strike caller that dates back many years. While I don’t expect him to continue at this kind of a rate to the under, this is an umpire that the pitchers should be happy to see behind home plate. Marvin Hudson (13 Unders 3 Overs) Marvin Hudson has been an over umpire on the whole in the last 6-8 years. Hudson has a low 2.39 strikeout/walk ratio and has a called strike percentage of 63.57% this season. He has had a bunch of low scoring games this year, but based on his consistent history of calling fewer strikes than the average umpire, I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue. Scott Barry (10 Unders 3 Overs) To be completely honest, Scott Barry has gone back and forth frequently in recent years. He appears to be an over umpire at times, and at other times he looks like an under umpire. Barry has a strong under record this year, but his strikes called percentage is nearly the lowest in the majors at 62.46%. His strikeout/ratio is very low at 2.02. Barry carried just a 2.03 strikeout/walk ratio last year as well. I wouldn’t expect the under to keep doing too well with Barry. Andy Fletcher (10 Overs 7 Unders) Fletcher was a whopping 24-9 to the over last season. He has a relatively low called strike percentage and strikeout/walk ratio over the last three seasons. There has been an average of 10.18 runs per game in his games this year. The average amount of runs in his games last year was 11.56. Fletcher is at least a bit of an over umpire. Lance Barrett (11 Overs 3 Unders) Barrett’s games have seen an average of 10.73 runs per game this season. He is near the MLB average in strikes called percentage. Barrett was 20-12 to the over last year, but he had a very high strikes called percentage. His long term numbers don’t suggest that this kind of over run will continue. I would look for these numbers to even out.

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4 Teams With Regression Signs to Watch

by Kyle Hunter

Friday, Jun 27, 2025

It’s late June and we’re nearly halfway through the MLB season. It’s a long grind, and bettors have to be patient betting the bases. Let’s take a look at four key regression signs to watch for in the coming weeks/months. Tampa Bay Rays Offense- The Tampa Bay Rays offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. Tampa Bay’s offense is better than almost anyone expected it would be, but they are going to regress toward the mean. The key here is Tampa Bay has a whopping .342 batting average on balls in play in the last 30 days. The league average is about .290, and the second highest BABIP in the last 30 days is .326. The Rays offense might be good, but they aren’t this good! Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching- The Pittsburgh Pirates have the sixth best ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. They are carrying a ridiculously low BABIP allowed though. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of just .241 in the last 30 days. The second lowest BABIP allowed is .258 during that same time period. The Pirates pitching staff will regress toward the mean. New York Mets Offense With Runners in Scoring Position (Positive Regression) The Mets offense has been dreadful with runners in scoring position in the last 30 days. The Mets have a .220 batting average with runners in scoring position, but they have a brutal .244 batting average on balls in play in these spots in the last 30 days. The Mets offense is good, and I think they will get back on track in key spots in the coming weeks. LA Angels Bullpen ERA- The Angels bullpen has been lights out in the last month. The Angels bullpen has been a major weakness for years, and I still believe they are far weaker than recent statistics appear. The Angels have a 2.77 bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is 3.91. They have an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .240 during this time. Expect the Angels bullpen numbers to get worse. 

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Betting on Home Underdog Teams

by Wayne Root

Friday, Jun 27, 2025

Based on my research, here are some potential examples of undervalued home underdogs in the 2025 MLB season, along with the factors that might make them undervalued:Teams Identified as Undervalued Home Underdogs:1.  Kansas City Royals:Why:The Royals are exceeding expectations and injecting volatility into the betting landscape. They have a rising star in Bobby Witt Jr.Supporting Data:Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate. 2.  Boston Red Sox:Why:Strategic signings like Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler show promise, overshadowing durability concerns. Prospects like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell could also change the game mid-season. Supporting Data:Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.3.  Seattle Mariners: Why:The Mariners have been especially reliable covering the spread at home.Supporting Data:Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate.4.  Toronto Blue JaysWhy: Consider betting on home underdogs like Toronto for better moneyline valueSupporting Data:Divisional road underdogs as they offer value against public perception and favorites 5.  New York MetsWhy:The Mets have been especially reliable covering the spread at home.Supporting Data:Home underdogs are winning at a striking 45.9% rate. General Factors Contributing to Undervaluation:Public Bias:The public loves betting favorites, especially popular teams like the Yankees or Dodgers. Sportsbooks know this and may inflate the lines on those teams, creating value on underdogs.Strong Matchup Value:Smart bettors target underdogs with strong matchup value and lowerUnderrated Pitching:Strong pitchers on underdog teams offer opportunities for straight-up wins despite the team's overall.Better Bullpen:Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings can be profitable. Market Misperceptions: Teams with underestimated projections highlight market inaccuracies in win forecasts. Mid-season Performance Shifts: Player performance shifts can drastically alter the betting landscape for underdogs. Home/Road Splits:Some pitchers perform significantly better at home, which may not be fully reflected in the betting line. Reverse Line Movement: Keep an eye on overnight lines and reverse line movement, which may signal that sharp bettors see an edge.Strategies for Identifying Undervalued Home Underdogs:Focus on Home Underdogs: Home underdogs boast a win rate of 45.9%, defying typical betting market trends. Analyze Pitcher Matchups:A ground ball pitcher with good command is less likely to get shelled. Digging into how a pitcher's style fits the weather and park can uncover value the books can't fully adjust for.Leverage Market Trends:Use market analysis to pinpoint underdog value. Check Splits:Check splits on ESPN or Baseball-Reference for day/night, stadium, and especially home vs away. Monitor Bullpen Ratings:Look for money line underdog teams with better bullpen.By considering these factors and monitoring team performance throughout the season, you can potentially identify undervalued home underdogs and capitalize on profitable betting opportunities. 

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Will the Dallas Cowboys Make the 2025-26 Playoffs

by Wayne Root

Friday, Jun 27, 2025

It's difficult to definitively say why the Dallas Cowboys *will* win the NFC East in 2025, but here's a breakdown of factors that could contribute to them winning the division, as well as some opposing viewpoints:Arguments for a Cowboys Victory:Potential Rebound:After a disappointing 7-10 season in 2024, some analysts believe the Cowboys are due for a turnaround. A key factor will be the health of quarterback Dak Prescott. If he can remain healthy throughout the 2025 season, Dallas might surprise many. Offensive Firepower:The Cowboys offense could be "electric" with a strong wide receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Defensive Improvements:The Cowboys are hoping for a defensive resurgence. They've added talent on the edge, and if key players like Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are healthy, the defense could improve significantly. Some believe Dallas' defense might even flirt with being a top-10 unit.Coaching Change:The appointment of Brian Schottenheimer as head coach could bring a "breath of fresh offensive thought".Schedule:One source suggests that the Cowboys have a relatively easy schedule outside of their divisional games. If the Cowboys see defensive improvement, they could challenge for the division.Oddsmakers:One source predicts the Cowboys will win the NFC East, based on expected regression from the Eagles and Commanders. Draft:Some analysts believe that the Cowboys "crushed" the 2025 NFL Draft.Counterarguments and Concerns:Tough Competition:The NFC East is considered a tough division with strong teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders.Super Bowl Hangover Effect on Eagles:It is believed that the Philadelphia Eagles may experience a Super Bowl "hangover", potentially opening the door for another team in the division to win it. Commanders on the Rise:Some predict the Washington Commanders will win the NFC East in 2025. Cowboys' Weaknesses:One source cites a soft defense up the middle and just an "OK" run game as potential weaknesses for the Cowboys. New Coach Uncertainty:It's uncertain if Brian Schottenheimer will succeed where other past coaches have failed in leading the Cowboys to the NFC Championship Game.Prescott's Age:Dak Prescott is getting older, which is a factor to consider.Tough Schedule:Some sources indicate the Cowboys face a difficult schedule, including multiple Thursday games, which could hinder their playoff chances. Odds:As of May 2025, oddsmakers view the Cowboys as long shots to win Super Bowl LX. Their odds to capture the NFC East trail behind division favorites like the Philadelphia Eagles. Current Odds as of June 25, 2025The Cowboys are +4500 to win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are + 2000 to win the NFC Conference The Cowboys are + 600 to win the NFC EastThe o/u on total wins is 7.5Will Dallas make the Playoffs:Yes is +200

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Big Al's Daily Angle: CFL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/27/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jun 27, 2025

The Friday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. The New York Mets travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Mets send out David Peterson to pitch against the Pirates' Mitch Keller. New York is a -169 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay plays in Baltimore on Apple TV+ with Ryan Pepiot getting the ball for the Rays to face Tomoyuki for the Orioles. The Rays are a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. New York hosts the Athletics with the Yankees turning to Will Warren to face the Athletics’ Mitch Spence. The Yankees are a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Four MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. Toronto is in Boston with Jose Berrios taking the mound for the Blue Jays to take on Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. The Blue Jays are a -114 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. St. Louis visits Cleveland on Apple TV+ with the Cardinals tapping Sonny Gray getting the ball to challenge the Guardians’ Luis L. Ortiz. The Cardinals are a -131 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Diego plays in Cincinnati with Dylan Cease taking the hill for the Padres to face Nick Martinez for the Reds. The Padres are a -144 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Detroit plays at home against Minnesota with the Tigers tapping Sawyer Gipson-Long to pitch against a Twins starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Atlanta Braves are home against the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:15 p.m. ET. Bryce Elder gets the starting pitcher assignment for the Braves to battle Mick Abel for the Phillies. Atlanta is a -135 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 9. The San Francisco Giants are in Chicago to face the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Giants send out Landen Roupp to pitch against the White Sox’s Aaron Civale. San Francisco is a -174 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners travel to Texas to take on the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Mariners to face Nathan Eovaldo for the Rangers. Both teams are priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Three MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. Chicago plays in Houston with the Cubs turning to Cade Horton to challenge the Astros’ Brandon Walter. Both teams are priced as a -110 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Los Angeles is in Kansas City with Dustin May taking the hill for the Dodgers to take on Noah Cameron for the Royals. The Dodgers are a -158 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Milwaukee hosts Colorado with the Brewers turning to Jose Quintana to battle a Rockies’ starting pitcher yet to be named. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Washington Nationals at 9:38 p.m. ET. Jose Soriano takes the mound for the Angels to go against Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Los Angeles is a -164 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the Miami Marlins at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks send out Merrill Kelly to pitch against the Marlins’ Eury Perez. Arizona is a -176 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Montreal Alouettes visit Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Alouettes are a -1.5 point road favorite with an over/under of 48.5.

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June Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Jun 26, 2025

As the All-Star Break approaches, a more complete statistical snapshot is available for most starting pitchers. Here are four National League starters that continue to look like overachievers for the 2025 season and should be considered with caution for the rest of the season.  David Peterson – New York Mets David Peterson isn’t a bad option on the mound but with a 2.98 ERA pitching for a popular Mets team with a great home record, his valuation is climbing a bit too high. Peterson has a 2.22 ERA at home this season and he has benefited from three of his last four home starts coming against some of the wort teams in baseball. Peterson has allowed at least three runs in each of his last three road starts and the Mets have slipped in June to fall back into a tight NL East race with the Phillies while opening the door for the team to be caught in the competitive NL Wild Card picture. The July schedule is rather difficult for the Mets and Peterson has rather average numbers with a 7.7 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9. Peterson has been fortunate to allow only six home runs in over 90 innings this season to keep his overall season line in check. Peterson is a great groundball producer, but his current 57 percent groundball rate is well above his typical rate with a career average closer to 51 percent. The Mets are just 1-4 in Peterson’s last five starts and 3-6 in his last nine even while he has been a hefty favorite in several home starts after the Mets won five of his first six starts early in the season.  Freddy Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers The Brewers are closing the gap with the Cubs in the NL Central race and looking like a viable NL playoff threat. There have been suggestions that Milwaukee might trade Peralta in the coming weeks even with a favorable team option available for next season, looking to maximize its return. While it wouldn’t be a popular decision for fans with Peralta being a solid starter since 2018 for the Brewers, the numbers suggest he has been getting away with better results than he deserves this season and last. Peralta has the lowest K/9 of his career this season and his FIP of 3.90 is a run higher than his 2.90 ERA, which would be his second best in eight MLB seasons. Peralta has stranded almost 85 percent of his baserunners in 93 innings in 2025, a full 10 percent better than his career strand rate as a lot of things have gone right this season. Peralta has been pulled prior to six innings in five of his last eight starts with an eye on keeping his numbers strong and with Jacob Misiorowski dominating, Jose Quintana pitching well, and Brandon Woodruff nearing a return from the IL, Peralta might not be in Milwaukee’s postseason rotation plans.  Jameson Taillon – Chicago Cubs With seven wins pitching for a first place team Jameson Taillon has held a steady presence in the Chicago rotation. His FIP of 5.17 is the second highest of any qualified starter in the National League however, while he has the highest HR/9 in that group, at nearly 2.1 with 21 home runs surrendered in 16 starts. Warm summer temperatures are Wrigley Field are not likely to help his cause with just a 33 percent groundball rate this season and August has been Taillon’s worst month in his career splits. Taillon has a 5.56 road ERA this season and posted far worse numbers in June to erase good results in April and May to start the season. If Chicago is serious about holding off the surging teams chasing them in the NL Central race, finding a replacement for Taillon in the rotation would be wise.  Randy Vasquez – San Diego Padres In 20 starts last season Vasquez had a 4.87 ERA with a 4.70 FIP but this season he has escaped with a 3.60 ERA in 16 starts despite a 5.51 FIP. Vasquez has a 5.1 K/9 next to a 4.2 BB/9 this season but he has found ways to compete with a .235 BABIP and an 83 percent strand rate. Petco Park has helped his cause with a 3.14 home ERA, and more innings pitched at home this season than on the road so far. Only twice in his last seven starts have the Padres allowed Vasquez to pitch more than five innings as Mike Shildt seems to know what the numbers also are suggesting; that the strong run for Vasquez in May and June is a mirage and his results are a time bomb that are likely to explode in future starts.   

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June Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Jun 26, 2025

As the All-Star Break approaches, a more complete statistical snapshot is available for most starting pitchers. Here are four American League starters that continue to look like overachievers for the 2025 season and should be considered with caution the rest of the season.  Drew Rasmssen – Tampa Bay Rays Few teams have been hotter in the last month than the Rays and Rasmussen has benefited, picking up six wins in his last eight starts. Rasmussen had a dominant scoreless run over four starts from mid-May to early June and that run will keep his numbers looking good for the foreseeable future. A 3.45 FIP sits next to his 2.45 ERA and with a 7.7 K/9, Rasmussen isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher. Rasmussen has enjoyed the Rays temporary home ballpark in Tampa this season with a 2.16 ERA at Steinbrenner Field but incredibly over 69 percent of his innings this season have been at home with Tampa Bay having a home-heavy first half schedule. A greater proportion of his future starts are likely to be on the road while his season BABIP of .242 with an 84 percent strand rate will be difficult to maintain. Last season Rasmussen had a .333 BABIP while stranding fewer than 68 percent of his baserunners.  Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays Now approaching four years since Berrios was traded from the Twins to the Blue Jays and getting a significant long term contract, the deal is looking better for Toronto has Berrios has shaken off a tough 2022 season and pitched decently the past two and a half seasons. Since 2023 Berrios has a 4.34 FIP and a 3.60 ERA and his strikeout rate and walk rate are far worse than his best years in Minnesota. Berrios has improved the gap between his home and road splits, but a lot of the improvement boils down to leaving runners on base, with an 81 percent strand rate last season and a nearly 80 percent strand rate this season. Part of that has been a decent Toronto bullpen but there has been an element of luck keeping Berrios looking like a slightly above average starter since the start of last season when in reality, his stuff suggests he is close to the league-average in most areas. As a recognizable two-time All-Star with a reputation for great home results, Berrios is likely to be overpriced in his Rogers Centre starts the rest of the season.  Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers After flirting with a no-hitter last week and posting a glowing 8-2 record with a 2.08 ERA, deGrom is going to start to be valued similar to how he was in his time with the Mets before all the injuries have mostly kept him off the mound in recent seasons. At his best, deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball, but he is now nearly 38 years old and having battled through multiple injuries. His FIP is nearly a full run higher than his 2.08 ERA and while an 8.9 K/9 is nothing to scoff at, his career K/9 is 10.8. So far in 2025 deGrom has enjoyed a .231 BABIP and an absurd over 87 percent strand rate, with both figures way off his career norms even in his best seasons with the Mets. While deGrom can certainly continue to be an effective pitcher that can give the Rangers a second half spark, he is going to be consistently overpriced following a 5-0 run in his last five starts for Texas, a run that has included him pitching against the Nationals, White Sox, Pirates, and Orioles, also known as four of the worst seven teams in baseball by record.  Gavin Williams – Cleveland Guardians Cleveland is a difficult team to fade with great potential in the bullpen and a great track record in close games, but Gavin Williams is emerging as something resembling a staff ace in his third season and he isn’t likely to live up to that billing. Williams has a 4.61 FIP next to a 3.68 ERA in 16 starts, basically the opposite of what happened to him in 16 starts last season when he had a 4.86 ERA and a 3.67 FIP. He has had more groundballs this season and more stranded runners even with a dangerous walk rate at 5.0 BB/9. Williams does have nearly identical home and road splits, but he has thrown almost 12 more home innings so far this season. A concern is also that Williams has not made more than 16 starts in a season in his career as he will likely reach a career high in MLB innings in his next start. A 1st round pick in 2021 Williams hasn’t blossomed into a dominant strikeout producer and he has likely been a bit fortunate in his career in terms of home runs allowed. With a couple of recent scoreless outings and four quality starts since late May, Williams is likely at his peak, and he has been helped by six of his last nine starting efforts being at home. In June Williams has a 2.57 ERA in five starts but he has a 4.64 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio well below 2:1 as a correction is likely on the horizon. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL, and FIFA Club World Cup Previews and Odds - 06/26/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jun 26, 2025

The Thursday sports card features MLB, CFL, and FIFA Club World Cup action.Major League Baseball has nine games scheduled. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. Cleveland hosts Toronto, with the Guardians sending out Tanner Bibee to pitch against the Blue Jays Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays are a -112 money-line favorite, with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings). Minnesota plays at home against Seattle, with Simeon Woods Richardson taking the ball for the Twins to face Emerson Hancock for the Mariners. The Twins are a -121 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Detroit is home against the Athletics, with the Tigers tapping Dietrich Enns to take on the Athletics’ Jeffrey Springs. The Tigers are a -164 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 2:10 p.m. ET. Houston hosts Philadelphia, with Hunter Brown getting the ball for the Astros to battle Cristian Sanchez for the Phillies. The Astros are a -149 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Tampa Bay travels to Kansas City, with the Rays turning to Shane Baz to go against the Royals’ Michael Lorenzen. The Rays are a -126 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The Chicago Cubs play in St. Louis against the Cardinals. Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs to challenge Andre Pallante for the Cardinals. Chicago is a -137 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to take on the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers send out Clayton Kershaw to face the Rockies’ Austin Gomber. Los Angeles is a -294 money-line road favorite with a total of 12. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Miami Marlins at 3:45 p.m. ET. Hayden Birdsong gets the starting assignment for the Giants to pitch against Janson Junk for the Marlins. San Francisco is a -176 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.The New York Mets are home against the Atlanta Braves at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Mets turn to Griffin Canning to battle against the Braves Grant Holmes. New York is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League kicks off with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Edmonton Elks on the CBS Sports Network at 8:30 p.m. ET as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 51.5.The FIFA Club World Cup continues with four matches. Two matches start at 3:00 p.m. ET. Manchester City plays Juventus at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on TNT/truTV/DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Wydad Casablanca challenges Al Ain at Audi Field in Washington, D.C., on DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.Two more FIFA Club World Cup matches begin at 9:00 p.m. ET on DAZN. Al Hilal takes on Pachuca at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee, as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Real Madrid faces Salzburg at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and FIFA Club World Cup Previews and Odds - 06/25/2025

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 25, 2025

The Wednesday sports card features MLB and FIFA Club World Cup action.Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Chicago to play the White Sox as a -144 money-line road favorite, with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Pittsburgh Pirates play in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -117 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -126 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Washington Nationals at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -150 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Texas Rangers are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -157 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games start at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays visit Cleveland to face the Guardians as a -111 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers are home against the Athletics as a -169 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees host the Atlanta Braves as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Yankees play in Cincinnati against the Reds as a -223 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Two MLB games start at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Kansas City to challenge the Royals as a -126 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Seattle Mariners as a -127 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs travel to St. Louis to go against the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET as a -132 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play in Houston against the Astros at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -163 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to battle the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -314 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The San Francisco Giants are home against the Miami Marlins at 9:45 p.m. ET as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The FIFA Club World Cup continues with four matches. Two matches start on DAZN at 3:00 p.m. ET. Borussia Dortmund plays Ulsan HD FC at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Fluminense takes on Mamelodi Sundowns at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Two more FIFA Club World Cup matches begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Inter Milan challenges River Plate at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, on TNT/truTV/DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Monterrey faces the Urawa Red Diamonds at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5.  

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Top 5 WNBA Betting Observations Heading Into Week 6

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025

Time for my monthly update from the WNBA, as things are getting interesting league-wide.I would think everyone knew the top teams in each conference would be New York in the East and Minnesota in the West. From there, it's been a crapshoot, and that includes the betting numbers.Now that we're about six weeks in, it's time for an update with how certain teams are doing against the spread and with their totals, and which teams to look for value with, especially as underdogs.TOP 5 WNBA SIDES, FADES, TOTALS:VALKYRIES (7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS) - Did anyone have Golden State on their bingo card for No. 1 ATS team in the WNBA at any point in the season? Here we are just past the quarter-pole, and sure enough the defensive-minded Valks who head into the week having won five of their last six games with the best ATS mark.ACES (6-7 SU and 4-9 ATS) - Equally surprising but in an opposite manner, Las Vegas is the worst team to bet on this season. The Aces scored a huge, momentum-building win over Indiana on Sunday, but it was just their fourth cover of the season. Las Vegas has two very winnable home games before leaving for five, but be very wary of inflated numbers.DREAM (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) - Karl Smesko's group has been getting things done a bit under the radar, with WNBA fans far too intoxicated with what the Fever and Caitlin Clark are doing. The Dream enter the week one-half game behind the defending champion New York Liberty in the Eastern Conference, and had covered eight of nine before losing their last two at the window. Still a team to watch with reasonable numbers.STORM (9-5 SU and ATS) - With its 89-79 win over the Liberty this weekend, Seattle became the first WNBA team this season to have wins over the league's top two teams (Minnesota and New York). Coach Noelle Quinn has her team playing exceptional defense, so it's advisable to keep an eye on lower point spreads with the Storm.LIBERTY (10-3 SU, 8-5 O/U) - Speaking of New York, which comes into the week having lost three of four, including its last  two, it's still playing higher-scoring games. New York, which has failed to cover its last four games, saw all four of those contests go over the posted number. Without Jonquel Jones in the lineup, a weakened defense could lead to a few more overs during this four-game road trip.LYNX (12-1 SU, 5-8 O/U) - Minnesota opened the season by staying under in three of its first four games, and has done the same in its last two games. But here is something to keep an eye on this week, 12 of the Lynx's first 13 games have been against Western Conference teams. Their next four games will be against Eastern Conference foes Washington, Atlanta, Connecticut and Washington a second time. Atlanta has gone over in three straight, Connecticut has ended up high in two of its last three, and Washington has landed north of the number in its last two.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, FIFA Club World Cup and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 06/24/2025

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 24, 2025

The Tuesday sports card features MLB, FIFA Club World Cup, and the CONCACAF Gold Cup action.Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled. The Baltimore Orioles host the Texas Rangers at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -137 money-line favorite, with the total set at 10 (all odds from DraftKings). Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Cleveland to play the Guardians as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the as a -303 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves play in New York against the Mets as a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The New York Yankees are in Cincinnati to take on the Reds as a -168 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Four MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Chicago to face the White Sox as a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Seattle Mariners as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays as a -144 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.  The Chicago Cubs play in St. Louis to face the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET as a -117 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros are home against the Philadelphia Phillies at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -144 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to challenge the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox travel to Los Angeles to battle the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -199 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -169 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Miami Marlins at 9:45 p.m. ET as a -187 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The FIFA Club World Cup continues with four matches. Two matches start at 3:00 p.m. ET. Boca Juniors play Auckland at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee, on DAZN as a -5.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Bayern Munich takes on Benfica at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, on TNT/truTV/ DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more FIFA Club World Cup matches begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Chelsea challenges Esperance Sportive Tunis at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on DAZN as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Flamengo FC faces Los Angeles FC at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on DAZN as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. The CONCACAF Gold Cup resumes with four matches. Two matches start at 7:00 p.m. ET. Guatemala battles Guadeloupe at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas, on FS2 as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Panama takes on Jamaica at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas, on FS1 as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Two more CONCACAF Gold Cup matches begin at 10:00 p.m. ET. Canada plays El Salvador at Shell Energy Stadium on FS1 as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Honduras faces Curacao at PayPal Park in San Jose, California, on FS2 as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

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NBA Draft Wagers

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Jun 23, 2025

2025 NBA Top 5 Pick - Kon Knueppel (-160)This year's draft has Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper locked into the first two picks with heavy odds on both. After that, it becomes wide open at pick three and beyond. Kon Knueppel has been mocked anywhere in the three to ten range but the consensus around the league is that he is one of, if not the best shooter in the draft, while also bringing solid defense, ball handling, and passing to the table. At Duke, the 6’5 220lb SG/SF shot 48% from the field, 41% from three, and 91% from the free throw line while playing about 30 minutes per game with relatively high usage. Knueppel can bring the ball up when needed, initiating the offense, and also has savvy footwork to get isolation buckets inside the arch. There may be some higher upside players available in the three to five spot, but Knueppel is about as solid as it gets in terms of pro readiness. 2025 NBA Top 10 Pick - Kasparas Jakucionis (-105)Jakucionis was thought to be a lottery pick since he arrived at Illinois for his freshman year. He met expectations in his one collegiate year averaging a respectable 15ppg, on 44% from the field and 32% from three in a very difficult Big 10. A 6’5 point guard could be utilized by quite a few top ten teams this year. There is room for improvement with his shooting but he did take over five three pointers per game showing his aggressiveness to score. Kasparas averaged just under five assists per game as well but could clean up his turnover numbers. Regardless, he and Jeremiah Fears are the next two point guards likely to go after Dylan Harper. Both are favored to go in the top ten but Jakucionis would return more than Fears on investment. 2025 NBA Number 3 Overall Pick - Ace Bailey (+450)VJ Edgecombe is the favorite to go here (-280), but plenty of experts have Bailey sneaking up to the third pick. Bailey is a 6’8 small forward who can fill up the scoring column, averaging about 18ppg for Rutgers and also collecting over 7rpg. A three level scorer who has tons of potential should translate well at the next level. The 76ers, who own the third pick, need to provide Tyrese Maxey some scoring help with Joel Embiid’s playing time always uncertain. Edgecombe is a defensive stopper while Bailey a scoring machine, and at the current value, a flyer on Bailey may pay dividends. 

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