2025 American Athletic Conference Preview
by Matt Fargo
Monday, Jun 30, 20252025 American Athletic Conference Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AAC Championship Odds (via DraftKings) Tulane: 8.5 Over +105 Under -135 ~ AAC Winner +260Navy: 8.5 Over -125 Under -105 ~ AAC Winner +380Army: 7.5 Over -150 Under +120 ~ AAC Winner +400Memphis: 8.5 Over +115 Under -150 ~ AAC Winner +550UTSA: 7.5 Over -115 Under -115 ~ AAC Winner +650USF: 6.5 Over +110 Under -140 ~ AAC Winner +900East Carolina: 6.5 Over +120 Under -150 ~ AAC Winner +1,800North Texas: 6.5 Over -120 Under -110 ~ AAC Winner +2,200FAU: 4.5 Over +105 Under -135 ~ AAC Winner +15,000Rice: 3.5 Over -140 Under +110 ~ AAC Winner +15,000UAB: 4.5 Over +120 Under -150 ~ AAC Winner +20,000Tulsa: 2.5 Over -175 Under +135 ~ AAC Winner +20,000Charlotte: 2.5 Over -150 Under +120 ~ AAC Winner +20,000Temple: 3.5 Over +105 Under -135 ~ AAC Winner +30,000 Coaching Changes Charlotte: Biff Poggi Out ~ Tim Albin InEast Carolina: Mike Houston Out ~ Blake Harrell InFlorida Atlantic: Tom Herman Out ~ Zach Kittley InRice: Mike Bloomgren Out ~ Scott Abell InTemple: Stan Drayton Out ~ K.C. Keeler InTulsa: Kevin Wilson Out ~ Tre Lamb In Tulane Green Wave 9-5 ~ 7-1 AAC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8 Tulane opened 2024 with a 1-2 record, the losses coming against Kansas St. and Oklahoma, and then reeled off eight straight wins which included a 7-0 start in the AAC to chinch its third straight trip to the championship game but lost its season finale to Memphis before falling to Army in the AAC Championship by 21 points and then got blown out by Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl for a disappointing 9-5 finish. The Green Wave are the favorites to win the conference despite having to rebuild an offense that lost its quarterback, top running back and top five receivers. They averaged over 35 ppg and over 400 ypg on offense and it could take time to gel so there should be regression. Tulane is going to have to rely on its defense to carry them as they have eight starters back including four of their top five tacklers from a unit that finished No. 24 in both total defense and scoring defense. The front seven will be the strength with five players back. Tulane has to face Northwestern, Duke and Mississippi in the nonconference schedule but those first two are at home and are also at South Alabama. In the AAC, they avoid Navy but face all of the other top teams and have to travel to UTSA and Memphis in consecutive weeks. Navy Midshipmen 10-3 ~ 6-2 AAC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5 Navy started last season 6-0 and snuck into the AP Top 25 before getting blown out against Notre Dame and then suffered a bad loss at Rice in its following game. The Midshipmen rebounded to win four of its final five games including a win over Army and then a solid win over Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl. The 10-3 season was the first winning campaign since 2019 and momentum is expected to carry over. They improved by 71 ypg and nearly 14 ppg on offense and have eight starters back including quarterback Blake Horvath, who also led the team in rushing, part of a group of seven of the top eight rushers returning. They also bring back every receiver that caught a pass, part of one of the best passing offenses in years for Navy. The defense was stout once again but only five starters return with the back seven getting hit the hardest. They open the season with VMI before going into three straight AAC games and then face Air Force, one of their final three nonconference games, the other two against Notre Dame and Army, the latter which counts as a nonconference despite Army being in the AAC. In conference action, Navy does have to travel to Memphis but misses Tulane and UTSA along with the Army game not counting in the standings. Army Black Knights 12-2 8-0 AAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 5 Army’s 12 wins last season were the most in program history and it was just the fourth double-digit winning season ever and that encompasses 131 years of Army football. The Black Knights went 8-0 in the AAC, its first time as a non-Independent in 20 years, so what do they do for an encore? The schedule was relatively easy last season and it is similar this year but there is a lot to replace and it starts on offense as quarterback Bryson Daly is gone. He led the team in rushing with 1,701 yards and 32 touchdowns while throwing for over 1,000 yards and that is irreplaceable. Army also loses another 1,000-yard rusher and three of five offensive linemen so it could take some time to gain some traction on an offense that was No. 1 in the country in rushing with over 300 ypg. The defense was outstanding last season as the Black Knights finished No. 8 overall and No. 5 in points allowed and that was with just three returning starters so losing six going into this year may not be a huge issue. Three of four nonconference games are away from home, both Air Force and Navy, along with Kansas St. There is no Memphis on the AAC slate but three road games include Tulane, UTSA and East Carolina and the toughest home game is North Texas. Memphis Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 AAC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 4 It was another successful season for Memphis as it posted its second straight double-digit win season at 11-2 including a 6-2 record in the American Athletic Conference but failed to make the AAC Championship for a fifth straight time. They have an O/U win total of 8.5 which is tied with Tulane and Navy but they are not the betting favorite as there are questions on offense. They have five returning starters on offense which includes Nevada transfer quarterback Brendon Lewis and they have to replace All-AAC quarterback Seth Henigan along with their top five receivers and top two running backs from an offense that finished No. 16 overall and No. 13 in scoring. The defense improved from 2023 but was still just average and now only four starters are back and they have to replace the entire defensive backfield. The nonconference schedule is pretty tame as they face two Sun Belt Conference teams while opening with Chattanooga of the FCS and while they also have to play Arkansas, they get that at home. The AAC slate is in their favor as Memphis catches Tulane and Navy at home while avoiding Army and UTSA. The toughest road game is at East Carolina with the other three coming against teams with wins totals of 4.5 or fewer. UTSA Roadrunners 7-6 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7 UTSA was one of the favorites to take the conference last season and while it controlled its home field, going 7-0, the Roadrunners were winless outside of San Antonio by dropping all six games and the .538 winning percentage was the worst since 2019. They started slow at 2-4 that included losses at Texas and Texas St. but they won four of five after that to become bowl eligible and it could have been better as three of their losses were by eight combined points. The offense averaged over 33 ppg despite missing seven-year quarterback Frank Harris and this season they bring back quarterback Owen McCown, part of nine offensive starters coming back. He threw for over 3,400 yards and is one of the top three rushers returning to go along with 4/5 of the offensive line. The defense is the concern as UTSA allowed over 30 ppg with the core of 2023 coming back and this season, only two starters are back, with eight of the top nine tacklers, including the top five, not returning. The Roadrunners face Texas St. again in the nonconference while having to travel to Texas A&M and Colorado St. There is no Memphis or Navy in the AAC and the two toughest games, Tulane and Army are both at home so the conference slate is doable. USF Bulls 7-6 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8 After four combined wins in three seasons, including a 0-17 road record, South Florida has put together back-to-back 7-6 campaigns, including seven non-home wins, that were capped off with bowl wins. Their last bowl game before this was in 2018 so there is positive energy with this once proud program under head coach Alex Golesh, now in his third season. The Bulls are not the favorites but are one of six teams with conference odds less than +1000 and a lot of that is due to having eight starters back on each side of the ball. The offense has been above average for the last three seasons but nothing spectacular, finishing No. 46 overall and No. 33 in scoring last season. Quarterback Byrum Brown missed the second half of the season and he is back but the Bulls lost their top three rushers and four of their top five receivers. They have five senior starters across the offensive line to give them a good foundation. The defense has been consistent as well but still ranked No. 119 in total defense yet are very experienced across all three levels. USF faces Boise St., Florida and Miami Fl. in the nonconference and three of their four toughest AAC games are on the road (Memphis, UTSA, North Texas) so this brutal schedule could hold them back. East Carolina Pirates 8-5 ~ 5-3 AAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7 East Carolina got off to a 3-4 start last season which led to the firing of head coach Mike Houston and defensive coordinator Blake Harrell took over as interim head coach and led the Pirates to a 5-1 close to the season and was rewarded to take over full time. Since winning 10 games in 2013, East Carolina has not won more than eight games in a season, which it has done three times, and it does not look to surpass that in 2025 although the Pirates could be trouble for some teams. They bring back only four starters on offense but this includes quarterback Kaitin Houser who took over in the second half of the season and the offense clicked, averaging 38.1 ppg over those final six games. They do lose their top rusher and only two receivers that caught a pass return to go along with an inexperienced offensive line so this could take some time. The defense is in worse shape with only two starters back from a unit that finished No. 100 overall and No. 83 in scoring. There is experience and the transfer portal will help but there will be early struggles. NC State and BYU highlight the nonconference schedule and as for the AAC slate, the only top team they miss is Navy and overall they play four games against teams off a bye week. North Texas Mean Green 6-7 ~ 3-5 AAC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 9 North Texas has not finished above .500 since 2018 following a 6-7 season in 2024 which resulted in a bowl loss, its seventh straight since its last bowl win in 2013. It was a solid start last year as the Mean Green started 5-1 but lost five straight games and needed a win over Temple to become bowl eligible so they need more consistency. This is the third season for head coach Eric Morris and it is a pivotal one as this is the typical year a team takes off or falls the other direction. The offense has led the way the last three seasons and last year, they were No. 3 overall and No. 23 in points scored but they lost a ton. Five starters are back along the offensive line but gone is quarterback Chandler Morris, their top three receivers and their leading rusher. It will be a battle between Reese Poffenbarger and Drew Mestemaker at quarterback and there should be enough pieces around for success. The defense was atrocious once again as they finished No. 128 in total defense but there is experience with nine starters in play. A 3-1 nonconference record looks realistic but the game against Washington St. is at home so a 4-0 is out there. They avoid Memphis and Tulane and the mix of home and road games is fair for a decent run. Florida Atlantic Owls 3-9 ~ 1-7 AAC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 2 It has been a rough stretch in Boca Raton since Lane Kiffin left as Florida Atlantic has had only once winning season and that was a 5-4 record in the shortened 2020 COVID year. The Owls bottomed out at 3-9 last season with the wins coming against Wagner of the FCS and FIU and Tulsa, which were a combined 7-17. It was time for a change as Zach Kittley takes over for Tom Herman and he has run some potent offenses at Texas Tech, Western Kentucky and Houston Baptist. The Owls were No. 57 in total offense and No. 87 in scoring offense but only five starters are back and the quarterback change should be a wash with Cam Fancher transferring out and Caden Veltkamp transferring in from Western Kentucky. The offensive line needs to protect better because there will be a lot of throwing despite only one of the top six receivers returning. The three top rushers also have to be replaced. Defensively, only two starters are back which is not necessarily a bad thing from a unit that was No. 112 overall and No. 104 in scoring. The Owls open at Maryland but the other three nonconference games are winnable and while they miss Army and UTSA from the AAC, they have to travel to Tulane, Navy and South Florida in a span of four games. Rice Owls 4-8 ~ 3-5 AAC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4 In 2023, Rice was coming off its first six-win season since 2014 but lost its bowl game to finish below .500 and its 4-8 record last season made it 10 straight losing seasons. The last seven belonged to Mike Bloomgren who was let go and the program hired Scott Abell who was the head coach at Davidson the last seven seasons and brings in no FBS coaching experience. He is bringing in a spread option rushing attack to an offense that was No. 114 in rushing last season and it could be for the best as it cuts down on mistakes. The quarterback position is up for grabs as are the running back options but the fact only one of the top eight receivers returns is not a big deal in this offense. The young offensive line will have to step up. The Owls have improved upon their defensive numbers each of the last four years and while only four starters are back, they could improve once again with the offense spending more time on the field. All three linebackers return, including two of the top three tacklers but they need help in the secondary. Three of the four nonconference games are at home with the lone road game being at Louisiana so that is far from horrible. There is no Army or Tulane but they have to travel to Navy, UTSA and South Florida. UAB Blazers 3-9 ~ 2-6 AAC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4 If there is a coach at the top of the hot seat list in the AAC, it is likely Trent Dilfer who is off to a 7-17 start in two seasons with 14 of those losses coming by double digits. Dilfer was a high profile hire whose previous experience was high school ball and while it has yet to pan out, this is the year they are hoping for a massive jump. The Blazers had six straight winning seasons when the football program returned in 2017 prior to Dilfer coming aboard so this could be the final chance. UAB lost a lot to the transfer portal but also brought a lot in to fill some holes with the top two rushers and top two receivers gone. Four starters along the offensive line need to be replaced but quarterback Jalen Kitna returns, he just has to improve his efficiency. The defense also has four starters coming back for a third straight season and it has not been good the past two seasons as UAB finished outside the top 120 in scoring both years. All four returning starters are in the back seven and a new defensive coordinator could make a difference. The Blazers open against Alabama St. but then four of the next six games are against Navy, Tennessee, Army and Memphis and they follow that stretch with two straight road games. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 3-9 ~ 1-7 AAC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5 Head coach Kevin Wilson did not even last two seasons as he was fired with one game remaining last season after a 7-16 run in 23 games. He is being replaced by Tre Lamb who comes over from East Tennessee St. after one season following four years at Gardner Webb, part of the latest trend of FCS coaches being hired following success there. He has his work cut out for him and will be out to change the culture first and foremost, part of the reason Wilson was fired, as the talent is not here for an immediate turnaround. The offense has four starters returning led by quarterback Kirk Francis who started seven games and was not very efficient. The leading rusher is gone as are the top three receivers so playmakers need to be found on an offense that was not horrible but needs an identity. The defense was in fact horrible, as the Golden Hurricane finished No. 132 overall and No. 133 in scoring. Five starters are back on that unit as well and help is on the way via the transfer portal but it will take a minor miracle for sustained success. The schedule does them no favors as they have Oklahoma St. and Oregon St. in the nonconference portion while having to face Tulane, Army, Navy and Memphis in the AAC. Charlotte 49ers 5-7 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 5 Head coach Biff Poggi was another coaching casualty after less than two seasons as he came into nothing, matched the previous season with a 3-9 record and was 3-7 last year before being fired with two games remaining. This could have been related more to a locker room issue than a win/loss issue and now it is up to Tim Albin to try and turn things around for a program that last had a winning season in 2019. He had success at Ohio where he went 31-10 the last three seasons but he is walking into a tough situation here. This is going to take some time to rebuild but Albin proved his worth in Athens and will be given that time. Two players are back with starting experience on the offensive line but everywhere else is going to be new with the quarterback, the top four running backs and top six receivers having to be replaced. They are in better shape on defense but not by much as they return their leading tackler Reid Williford at linebacker but eight of the next nine top tacklers are gone. The two co-defensive coordinators from Ohio followed Albin to Charlotte. The 49ers open with Appalachian St. and have North Carolina and Georgia on the nonconference slate and while they avoid Memphis and Army, it is too tough to overcome. Temple Owls 3-9 ~ 2-6 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 3 Temple is the sixth AAC team with a new head coach as K.C. Keeler takes over for Stan Drayton who produced three straight 3-9 seasons in his three-year tenure. Keeler spent 11 years at Delaware where he won a FCS national championship in 2014 and then spent another 11 years at Sam Houston where he won a FCS national title there as well in 2021. It was a tough first year at the FBS level before a 9-3 record last year prior to leaving before the New Orleans Bowl. Seven returning starters are on offense, some from other schools including running back Jay Ducker who was the starter at Sam Houston and followed his coach over. The quarterback position will likely not be decided until late in fall camp while the top three receivers are gone so the passing game could struggle early. The Temple defense was bad at No. 113 overall and No. 124 in points allowed and only three starters are back. Tyquan King and D.J. Woodbury who combined for 214 tackles are gone and that will be hard to come close to replacing. Nonconference games against UMass and Howard could start the Owls 2-0 but then it is Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. In the AAC, they miss Memphis and while they travel to Army, they get UTSA, Navy and Tulane at home.
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