The Houston Cougars Under Head Coach Kelvin Sampson: Still Not Reliable to Score Enough Points
I was on Duke against the Cougars in the Final Four — and despite getting that call wrong, much of my concern about Kelvin Sampson’s Houston team played out as I expected. As I wrote for that Report: “Houston’s offense can still go cold because of their inefficiency inside the arc.” Sure enough, the Cougars only made 13 of their 39 shots from inside the arc for a rough 33.3% shooting percentage. Houston ranked 292nd going into the National Championship Game by making only 48.0% of their shots inside the arc — and that mark dropped to a 46.1% clip on the road which ranked 283rd. They were scoring -2.7 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. But the Cougars were one of Sampson’s best scoring teams because they lead the nation by nailing 39.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they nailed 10 of their 22 shots from behind the arc against the Blue Devils at a 45.5% clip. Could they come close to that in the National Championship Game? The Gators ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 29.5% shooting from behind the arc. The other area where Houston dominated was on the offensive glass as they pulled down 18 offensive rebounds on a remarkable 46.2% of their missed shots — despite Duke’s significant size edge. Credit goes to box-out fundamentals this team has been taught — but the Cougars once again are at a size disadvantage since the Gators have four players in their forward rotation that are taller than 6’8 which is how big Houston gets on their front line from their regulars. Florida ranked 133rd in the nation with their opponents rebounding 29.0% of their missed shots — but that number is reflective of head coach Todd Golden’s desire to play at a fast pace and get up-and-down in transition from their opponent's missed shots. Given what the Cougars did to Duke, Golden may have his team focus more on limiting second-chance opportunities. They limited Auburn to pulling down only 25% of their missed shots despite the Tigers ranking 50th in the nation in offensive rebounding (34.2%). In the SEC Tournament Championship Game, they held Tennessee to rebounding only 17.4% of their missed shots despite the Volunteers ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding (35.6%). Clearly, Florida can frustrate great offensive rebounding teams if they want to — but the choice to do it requires them to slow the pace of the game down. Houston’s scoring can dry up if their 3s are not falling and they are not getting second-chance looks. In their regular season loss to Auburn, they made only 41.4% of their shots which resulted in 69 points. In their last overtime loss against the Crimson Tide who play at the fastest pace in the nation, they only made 36.9% of their shots. In their loss to San Diego State, they only made 37.1% of their shots. In their narrow 62-60 victory against Purdue in the Sweet 16, they only made 37.7% of their shots. A theme is emerging: if Houston is missing their shots, they can be beaten — and they did not make more than 42.1% of their shots in 11 of their games this season after only making 37.7% of their shots against Duke. On the road, the Cougars' 3-point shooting drops to a 38.0% clip which ranks 15th in the nation (still great, but no longer the best). To compound matters, they do not make things easier for themselves by getting to the free throw line — they rank 327th in the nation in getting to the free throw line. Just not enough easy shots spell trouble — and they were fortunate to get past the Blue Devils with some fortunate whistles late in the game. Houston only scored at a 0.91 Points-Per-Possession rate in the National Championship Game against Florida in a 65-63 loss. They made only 24 of their 69 shots from the field for a 34.8% field goal percentage — and they hit only 6 of their 25 shots from behind the arc for a 24% clip. They only got to the free throw line 14 times where they made nine of their shots. One would think that holding Florida to 65 points would be enough to win the national championship, but Sampson’s teams continue to struggle to score points in big games. Best of luck — Frank.
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