ASA NCAA South Region Projections

 

 

This is the toughest region in our opinion.  All team in the South Region are plus money and the top 3 seeds all sit in the top 7 of KenPom’s overall rankings.  We feel it’s toss up between 1-see Florida, 2-seed Houston, and 3-seed Illinois, and are all within 2 points of each other on a neutral court.  Because of that, let’s grab the best odds and the Illini at +325.  Half of the Illinois losses (4 of 8) have come in OT all vs solid NCAA teams Michigan St, UCLA, and Wisconsin (twice).  They fit the KenPom criteria (explained above) ranking 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency and 28th defensively.  They had some injuries during the season with starting PG Boswell and starting forward Stojakovic missing some games.  Both are back and this team is rested and healthy having played only 1 game since March 8th entering this tournament.  The Illini have some high level numbers in a number of key metrics including 3rd nationally in offensive rebounding, 10th in offensive turnover rate, and they send opponents to the FT line at the lowest rate in the entire country.  This is the tallest team in the country with two 7 footers and two 6’9 plus players that can all play inside and out.  They also have a top 10 NBA draft pick in Keaton Wagler, who KenPom rates as the 7th best player in the country.  The downside is they may have to get through both Houston and Florida to get out of this Region but they are definitely capable.  

 

 

Vandy fits the KenPom mold ranking 7th in offensive efficiency and 31st defensive and we’re getting them at 10 to 1 odds.  They have the 2nd most Quad 1 wins in the SEC (10) behind only 1-seed Florida and they are playing very well right now.  The Commodores in the last 2 weeks beat Tennessee twice and crushed Florida by 17 points.  They lost vs Arkansas in the SEC Championship game when the Razors simply got red hot making 15 triples hitting a ridiculous 63% from beyond the arc.  They have 2 high level guards, Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner, who combined to average 36 PPG and both shoot very well from deep.  This team  turns the ball over only 13% of the time (11th best nationally) and make almost 80% of the FT’s.  If they get by McNeese they’d most likely face a 4-seed Nebraska team that isn’t playing well and in fact, Vandy would be favored in that game.        

 

 

See above analysis.  They’d have to get through McNeese who thrives on creating turnovers and with Vandy’s great back court, they rarely turn the ball over.  The Commodores should control the glass and they are the much better shooting team.  Then it’s most likely Nebraska who is just 6-6 their last 12 games with 5 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tourney teams.