2025 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview
Regular Season Win Totals and ACC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Clemson: 9.5 Over -160 Under +135 ~ ACC Winner +115Miami: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160 ~ ACC Winner +400Louisville: 8.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ ACC Winner +800SMU: 8.5 Over +100 Under -120 ~ ACC Winner +800Georgia Tech: 7.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ ACC Winner +1,200Duke: 6.5 Over -160 Under +135 ~ ACC Winner +2,500North Carolina: 7.5 Over +130 Under -160 ~ ACC Winner +2,800Florida State: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ ACC Winner +3,000Virginia Tech: 6.5 Over +105 Under -125 ~ ACC Winner +3,000NC State: 6.5 Over +125 Under -150 ~ ACC Winner +5,000Syracuse: 5.5 Over +130 Under -160 ~ ACC Winner +6,500Pittsburgh: 6.5 Over +140 Under -170 ~ ACC Winner +7,000Boston College: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120 ~ ACC Winner +8,000Virginia: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130 ~ ACC Winner +10,000Cal: 5.5 Over -120 Under +100 ~ ACC Winner +15,000Wake Forest: 4.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ ACC Winner +50,000Stanford: 3.5 Over +120 Under -140 ~ ACC Winner +50,000
Coaching Changes
North Carolina: Mack Brown Out ~ Bill Belichick InWake Forest: Dave Clawson Out ~ Jake Dickert In
Clemson Tigers 10-4 ~ 7-1 ACC ~ 5-6-0 ATS ~ 3-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9
After missing out on the College Football Playoff for four consecutive seasons, Clemson got into the first expanded version last season as it backed in after Miami lost to Syracuse in its season finale to earn a spot in the ACC Championship. The Tigers defeated SMU to get into the CFP where they eventually lost to Texas by two touchdowns. It was still successful as Clemson hit double-digit wins after winning nine games in 2024, snapping a 12-season run of winning 10 or more games. They are pegged to possibly hit that mark again with a 9.5 O/U win total and are loaded on both sides. Eight returning starters are back on offense led by quarterback Cade Klubnik who is one of the early Heisman Trophy favorites and he welcomes back his three top receivers. Leading rusher Phil Mafah is gone but there is plenty of talent to find a replacement behind the top ranked offensive line in the ACC. The defense regressed by 86 ypg last season from 2023 but they are experienced and loaded at all three levels and we could see a 2021 type effort where they allowed 305 ypg and 14.8 ppg. The nonconference schedule includes South Carolina and LSU and the ACC schedule does not include Miami but they do have to travel to Georgia Tech and Louisville.
Miami Hurricanes 10-3 ~ 6-2 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Miami opened last season 9-0 and got into the top four of the CFP rankings but was shocked at Georgia Tech and the Hurricanes then lost to Syracuse in their season finale after blowing a 21-point lead, which knocked them out of the ACC Championship and an at-large bid to the CFP. They were relegated to the Pop Tarts Bowl where the roster was depleted with opt-outs and lost 42-41 to Iowa St. Miami lost a ton but they reloaded the best they could. Heisman Trophy quarterback Cam Ward is in the NFL but they were able to land Carson Beck from Georgia so they are just fine as long as his elbow is deemed ok but the Hurricanes lost their top six receivers and will rely on three big time transfers to fill the voids. The offensive line is going to be great again and while the top rusher is gone, both backups that combined for over 1,000 yards are back. Eight starters are back on defense (this includes four transfers that started at other schools) and five of the top six tacklers have departed yet the starting unit will be made up of seven juniors and seniors. All four nonconference games are at home but they open with Notre Dame and finish with Florida so it won’t be easy but the conference slate is fairly tame with the two tough tests against Louisville at home and at SMU.
Louisville Cardinals 9-4 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
Louisville has been close to really big things the last two seasons but failed in two different ways. In 2023, the Cardinals opened 6-0 before turnovers killed them in a loss to Pittsburgh and then were 10-1 before losing to Kentucky at home and then Florida St. in the ACC Championship. Last season, they had four losses strewn through the season but all were by one possession. The momentum is here in the third season under head coach Jeff Brohm who has won big games here and will have to do it again with a difficult slate but the pieces are in place to make that leap. The offense is loaded with playmakers led by quarterback Miller Moss who comes over from USC and he showed what he is capable of. The top receiver is gone as are two of the other top four but there is plenty of starting experience. The Cardinals have the No. 1 ranked running back unit with over 2,000 yards of returning production but a rebuilt offensive line will need to do its job. The defense was not great, No. 64 overall and No. 56 in scoring, and will need to be better to make a run but they are better up front. The nonconference schedule is cake and the bad news in the ACC is they face Clemson, Miami and SMU, the latter two on the road, but 2-1 here could get it done.
SMU Mustangs 11-3 ~ 8-0 ACC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5
SMU was the surprise of the ACC last season as in its first year in coming over from the AAC, the Mustangs ran through the conference with a perfect 8-0 record but its only real test was Louisville and they were upended by Clemson in the ACC Championship. They received a bid to the CFP but were no match for Penn St. in a 38-10 loss but they gained a lot of confidence and respect but will not be sneaking up on anyone. The transfer portal took its toll but SMU got some good pieces in return from it so while it will take a step back, it will not be a drastic one. The offense will revolve around quarterback Kevin Jennings who took over for Preston Stone early in the season and he flourished. He lost his top two receivers but there are four players back that combined for over 1,200 yards. Leading rusher Brashard Smith and his 1,365 yards is gone so someone has to step up behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense was surprisingly good, No. 26 overall and No. 32 in scoring which were both tops in the ACC and the defensive line will be the strength once again but the linebacking corps needs to be replenished. TCU and Baylor are in the nonconference slate while Clemson, Miami and Louisville are in the ACC mix, the latter two at home.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 7-6 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7
Georgia Tech opened the season in Dublin with what was thought at the time a big upset over Florida St. but we saw what the Seminoles were all about. The Yellow Jackets were up and down the rest of the way but they did upset Miami late in the season and nearly pulled off the upset over Georgia in an eight-overtime thriller and a loss in the Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt completed a second straight 7-6 season. Not bad considering they were coming off four straight losing seasons but things are in place to make a big move as these do not come up very often. Quarterback Haynes King led an offense that matched the 2023 numbers and if it plays out right, the Yellow Jackets could be better. The three top rushers are back, King was second, so the running game will be fine behind a strong offensive line. The receiving corps loses its top gainer as well as two others of the top four so they are thin and need players to emerge. The defense improved by 94 ypg from 2023 but they have to replace a lot up front with the transfer portal playing a big role. The secondary is solid but needs to create more turnovers. They open with Colorado and close with Georgia and in the ACC they miss everyone except for Clemson and Duke.
Duke Blue Devils 9-4 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7
It was a tough end to his 14-year run at Duke for head coach David Cutcliffe with three straight losing seasons but the Blue Devils went 17-9 in two years under Mike Elko and then 9-4 last season under Manny Diaz. There were blowouts against Miami Fl. and Mississippi in the Gator Bowl but they held their own against Georgia Tech and SMU and were fortunate to win all six coin flip games where the lines were between +3 and -3, five by one possession but that is something not sustainable. They are a longshot to win the ACC but have a 6.5 O/U win total which is due to a favorable schedule but we will likely see some regression. The offense should be better considering the Blue Devils were No. 108 overall and they should have an upgrade at quarterback in Darian Mensah who comes over from Tulane. The top two receivers are gone but there is help from the portal there as well. The running game will be strong behind an offensive line that returns four starters. The defense was adequate and should improve under Diaz and continue to attack. They get Elon and Illinois at home and Mensah gets to go back to Tulane and then to Connecticut for the nonconference schedule and the two games against ACC teams ahead of them are at Clemson and at home against Georgia Tech.
North Carolina Tar Heels 6-7 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 2-9-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5
The biggest storyline in the ACC is Bill Belichick taking the job at North Carolina, his first ever college job, who follows Mack Brown who was decent but could not get the Tar Heels over the top. Belichick brought in NFL offensive and defensive coordinators so it will be an unorthodox approach to make the Tar Heels a contender. North Carolina has not had a 10-win season since 2015 which was its first since 1997 so there has not been much to get excited about in Chapel Hill so this high profile hire will at the very least cause some enthusiasm. The offense was No. 48 overall and No. 44 in scoring so it was far from horrible but it was inconsistent with 133 points coming in three games against Charlotte, NC Central and James Madison and now it is an overhaul. Quarterback Gio Lopez is a transfer from South Alabama so with a new signal caller, it lessens the blow of the top three receivers being gone. Also departed is All-ACC running back Omarian Hampton and that is a big loss. The offensive line is intact which helps. The defense will be fine with solid transfers coming in. A home game against TCU is the biggest nonconference test and within the ACC, they host Clemson and Duke and miss everyone else so they have to take advantage.
Florida State Seminoles 2-10 ~ 1-7 ACC ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
The Seminoles were shafted in 2023 when they went 13-0 and were not picked to go to the CFP with a lot of that due to quarterback Jordan Travis getting injured and they were expected to contend last season but it was a miserable fall as a 14-9 win over California was their only FBS victory. Things cannot get any worse and things can get a whole lot better if the new pieces fall into place and there are a lot of them. Returning starters are skewed somewhat because it includes players who also could have started at other schools so Florida St. is counting on a lot of transfers. It starts with quarterback Tommy Castellanos who was a solid dual threat at Boston College. The receivers will all be new as well so early chemistry could be an issue or it could click right away at camp. The offensive line was the worst in the country and has gone through an overhaul. The defense did the offense no favors as they allowed 28 ppg and there are new faces all over the place on this side as well. The defensive line should be a big upgrade which will help the secondary that you guessed, is relatively new as well. The test will be Game One when they host Alabama and they then host Miami four games later. Three of the last four games are on the road including Clemson and Florida.
Virginia Tech Hokies 6-7 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 7
From 1993 to 2017, 25 years total, Virginia Tech had no seasons of fewer than seven wins. In seven seasons since 2018, the Hokies have had five such seasons featuring six three times, a five and a three. The slide started with head coach Justin Fuente with three of those and Brett Pry has added the other two including the 6-7 record last year. It could have been a lot better as of the six regular season losses, two were in overtime, three others by 10 points combined and the last by 10 points against Clemson. The disappointing part was that Virginia Tech had 21 returning starters coming back last year and they nearly made it special so things could be more difficult with this less experienced version. Quarterback Kyron Drones is a playmaker that can be dangerous with his arm and his legs but he needs protection from the offensive line that comes in with no returning starters as a Hokie. The transfer portal should make the receiving corps improve and the running back room is fine. The defense has improved in scoring each of the last five seasons and could do it again with new coordinator Sam Siefkes. If everything clicks, a 6-0 start is possible but so is a 3-3 start before a stretch of Georgia Tech, Louisville, Florida St. and Miami in five games.
NC State Wolfpack 6-7 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7
NC State had a run of four straight winning seasons come to an end after a loss to East Carolina in the Military Bowl to drop it to 6-7. It was an odd season of blowout wins, blowout losses, close wins and close losses with nothing really coming together as the Wolfpack finished No. 76 in total offense and No. 88 in total defense. Injuries did play a big part in the underachievement so there is added experience for the players that did not transfer out and they could be in better shape than what the odds are saying. Head coach Dave Doeren is in his 13th season so there has been plenty of success, just not enough to make much noise. The offense needs the line to grow up in a hurry because if it can succeed, this unit can flourish. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a freshman and that season will pay huge dividends and he has his top two receivers back along with the leading rusher so they could pop. The defense allowed 10 ppg more than it did in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and they have four true starters back from the front seven and will play a huge part in improvement. The nonconference schedule includes a game at Notre Dame and a home game against Virginia is being counted as nonconference. Miami is the only real big test in the ACC.
Syracuse Orange 10-3 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 6
Syracuse is coming off its first 10-win season since 2018 and finished in the Top 25 for just the second time since 2001 so it’s safe to say the first season under head coach Fran Brown was a huge success. Losses to Stanford and Boston College were by eight points combined and the loss to Pittsburgh was a turnover-fest while the win over Miami Fl. was a culmination of where the program is looking to go. The problem now is lack of experience as there is not much back after having 18 returning starters last season and the Orange are the second least experienced team in the ACC, ahead of only California. The late decision of quarterback Kyle McCord to enter the NFL Draft was a huge hit but a pair of transfers that saw time at LSU and Notre Dame could lessen the blow. The offensive line is a complete rebuild while nearly 2,900 receiving yards are gone as is a 1,000-yard rusher. The defense kept games closer than they should have been and now it will be up to this unit to step up until the offense can find its identity. Three of the top five tacklers are back so there is experience. Tennessee opens the season and then a trip to Notre Dame late highlights the nonconference and then games at Clemson, at SMU and at Miami are not ideal in the ACC.
Pittsburgh Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
Pittsburgh went 20-7 in 2021 and 2022 and then came a brutal 3-9 season that included a FCS win over Wofford but the Panthers came out strong in 2024 with a 7-0 start and then the wheels fell off with five straight losses to close the regular season and a 48-46 loss to Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in six overtimes added salt to the wound. That is not a finish a team wants heading into the offseason but there is guarded optimism with a very experienced team within as of the 16 projected returning starters, 13 have been starters at Pittsburgh. There is a big rebound possibility here behind a favorable schedule and it starts with quarterback Eli Holstein who had a solid season in his first after coming over from Alabama and he can flourish in his second season. His leading receiver is gone but the next three return as does 1,000-yard rusher Desmond Reid. The offensive line is made up of all upperclassmen. The defense imploded during the losing streak but there is experience everywhere with one of the best pass rushes in the country and nine of the top 13 tacklers return. They get Notre Dame at home and travel to West Virginia and in the conference, the two really big tests against Louisville and Miami are both at home.
Boston College Eagles 7-6 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
When you think of recent Boston College seasons, average has to come to mind. The Eagles have had six or seven wins in eight of the last nine seasons, a 3-9 campaign in 2022 being the lone exception so considering this is an ACC team from the northeast, this isn’t too bad. From 2001 to 2009, Boston College had nine straight seasons of eight or more wins including six of nine or more with a pair of double-digit winning campaigns so it is possible to win here. There is a lot to work around but there is also a lot to fix and the schedule may be too much to overcome. The Eagles lost quarterback Thomas Castellanos to Florida St. but Grayson James started five games last season and it will be his job to lose. The top two and three of the top four receivers are back so there is continuity but the running game will have to do its part. The top two rushers are gone and the offensive line will likely regress with only two starters back. The Eagles defense was pretty solid, finishing No. 55 overall and No. 53 in scoring but only two starters return from the front seven as the secondary will be the strength. Michigan St. and Notre Dame highlight the nonconference slate and in the ACC, they have to face Louisville, Clemson and SMU although the latter two are at home.
Virginia Cavaliers 5-7 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Virginia has not had a winning season since 2019 which was its last bowl game, the 2021 Fenway Bowl was cancelled, so the Cavaliers have been in a drought. Going back further, over the last 17 seasons, Virginia has just three winning seasons and only four bowl invites after 15 bowl games the previous 19 seasons so this may be considered more than a drought. They started 4-1 last season and then it got real ugly with a 1-6 finish with five of those losses by at least 17 points. The offense finished No. 93 overall and No. 107 in scoring and with a defense just as bad, not many games can be won. Bring in quarterback Chandler Morris from North Texas who threw for 3,774 yards and 32 touchdowns following three years at TCU. Four of the top five receivers have departed including the top two but there is returning depth and transfer help. The running game will be fine as long as the offensive line can overcome the loss of three starters. The defense allowed over 34 ppg during those last seven losses but the front seven should be better as long as they can get a push. All four nonconference games are at home, this includes Virginia Tech which is considered nonconference this season and they miss all of the big boys in the ACC except for Louisville.
Cal Golden Bears 6-7 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8
California was a pleasant surprise in its first season in the ACC and while it went only 2-6 in conference games, five of the losses were by one possession and by an average of just 3.4 ppg so while losses are losses, the Golden Bears were the most competitive losing team in the ACC. That is not an ideal slogan to be given but it shows they were close and if the offense can overcome a lot of big losses to the transfer portal, there is potential to claim its first winning record since 2019. The offensive line was one of the worst in the country but the good news is that only one starter is back which is not usually a good thing but it is in this case. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza transferred out and he will be missed but the Golden Bears are hoping Ohio St. transfer Devin Brown can fill the void. Additionally, every running back is gone as are seven of the eight receivers that caught a pass. The defense can keep them hanging around until the offense finds its rhythm as they were No. 36 overall and in points allowed and the front seven has six returning starters. Winnable road games at Oregon St. and San Diego St. could have them 4-0 going into conference play and the ACC schedule is as good as it could be with a trip to Louisville and hosting SMU the two big tests.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 4-8 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 3-7-2 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6
It has gotten ugly fast at Wake Forest as six straight winning seasons, not counting the 2020 COVID 4-5 record, has ended with back-to-back 4-8 campaigns. It cost head coach Dave Clawson his job after 11 seasons so it will be up to Jake Dickert, who previously coached at Washington St. where he went a respectable 23-20, to turn things around. One key factor is playing well on their home field as the Demon Deacons went 23-6 at Truist Field from 2019-2023 but went 1-6 last season, the only win coming against North Carolina A&T of the FCS. The offense had its moments but it was inconsistent and eventually finished No. 84 overall and No. 87 in scoring. Dickert will bring in a faster paced offense similar to his days at Washington St. and he brought in offensive coordinator Rob Ezell from South Alabama. The quarterback position is up for grabs, the offensive line is a work in progress and the top four receivers are gone so this project could take time. The defense will no doubt improve with its experience and only because the unit was the worst in the ACC. Two FCS games and Kennesaw St. should provide three nonconference wins and the ACC schedule is not bad as they miss Clemson, Miami and Louisville but it might not be enough.
Stanford Cardinal ~ 3-9 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8
The Stanford fall has been one of the biggest and fastest for a Power Four program that we have seen in sometime. From 2010 through 2018, the Cardinal went 94-27 and over the last six seasons, they have gone 20-46 with the only winning season being the 4-2 COVID year in 2020. They hired Stanford alum Andrew Luck to oversee the program and things are so bad, the head coach this season is Frank Reich and he was given the interim tag. There is no structure right now and this downward spiral could last a bit longer. Last season included a win over Cal Poly of the FCS and a last second win over Syracuse and somehow Stanford defeated Louisville as a 21-point underdog. The offense actually wasn’t horrible down the stretch last season and the offensive line is capable but the quarterbacks are raw with little receiver talent to throw to. Defensively, the Cardinal were No. 107 overall and No. 116 in points allowed and while they do have experience returning, the struggles will continue as it has been five straight seasons of allowing at least 31 ppg. The nonconference schedule includes consecutive road games at Hawaii and BYU to open the season and at home against Notre Dame to close it. They have to make three trips to the east coast in the ACC.
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