Sweet 16 Stats/Trends Since 2005

We’ve reached the Sweet 16! I would say the Round of 64 lacked the drama we like to see in the NCAA Tournament, but the Round of 32 was fantastic. There are some great matchups set for this week.

Let’s take a look at some Sweet 16 Stats/Trends

Sweet 16 Underdogs are 84-70 ATS. 

Sweet 16 underdogs who have covered 50% or less of their games for the season as a whole are 29-17-2 ATS. That is a 21.8% ROI.

Defensive underdogs have the best ATS records in this period. Teams who have relied on high shooting numbers have not fared as well.

John Calipari is 11-2 ATS in his last 13 Sweet 16 appearances

Tom Izzo is 4-6 ATS in his last 10 Sweet 16 games

Matt Painter is 3-5 ATS in his last 8 Sweet 16 contests.

The SEC conference is 27-14-2 ATS in their last 43 Sweet 16 games.

Favorites who average 15.5 assists or less per game are only 34-51 ATS in their last 85 Sweet 16 games.

Sweet 16 Games are 89-69 to the under since 2005. 

Sweet 16 totals of 141.5 or higher are 43-30 the under. 

Sweet 16 totals of 151 or higher are actually 15-10 to the over.

Tom Izzo coached teams have seen the under go 8-2 in the Sweet 16 Round

Kelvin Sampson’s teams are 5-1 to the under in the Sweet 16.

Rick Barnes coached teams are 4-2 to the over in the Sweet 16.

Nate Oats teams are 3-1 to the over in the Sweet 16

The under is 38-20 in the Sweet 16 when the spread is -6 or higher. 

The under is 27-12 in the Sweet 16 when the game spread is -7.5 or higher.

My thoughts- the underdog and under correlation makes sense. I believe at least part of the reason for the under being valuable during this round is we are once again seeing a new venue. Many of these are very large venues with difficult shooting backdrops too. The Elite 8 unders have not done nearly as well as Sweet 16 unders.

Enjoy the Sweet 16!