ASA MLB Win Total Projections

ASA's MLB WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS

Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 102.5 Wins (-105)

Despite winning the World Series and doing so in the most entertaining fashion in recent memory, we had to double check that this preseason line was correct. No team in the past two years has reached even 100 wins during the regular season. Los Angeles won the NL West with a respectable 93 regular season victories but even keeping a historic postseason front of mind, it remains a monumental task to reach triple digits over the course of 162 games. The Dodgers will enter the 2026 season as heavy favorites to repeat as World Series champions, with their win total currently more than a dozen games higher than any other team in MLB. Los Angeles does have arguably the most talented roster, also starting the season with the largest payroll in the league, yet lots will have to align for the Dodgers to reach their mark. Injuries are always a concern and LA has some aging veterans. Additionally, the NL West has four potential playoff teams and is by no means a cakewalk. Los Angeles should no doubt be favored but this season's win total is extremely inflated. 

Boston Red Sox OVER 87.5 Wins (-115)

The Red Sox had a solid year in 2025, making the playoffs with 89 wins, and eventually losing to the Yankees in the Wild Card round. Boston has been steadily improving each year since 2023, now in a prime position to make another postseason push. Having balanced roster construction ranking 7th in runs scored per game and 10th in runs allowed a year ago, all signs point to yet another year fighting amongst New York and Toronto for the AL East crown. With all three teams in the top seven for World Series odds, this is the most top heavy division in baseball. Still, Boston has the talent to compete alongside any team. Ace Garrett Crochet is a legitimate Cy Young candidate and rising star Roman Anthony just put the MLB on watch with his performance in the World Baseball Classic. The Red Sox are on an upward trajectory and even a repeat of last season will cash their win total. 

Milwaukee Brewers OVER 84.5 Wins (-120)

Milwaukee won 97 games a year ago en route to a fifth NL Central title in the past nine seasons. More impressive is the fact they have won at least 86 games in each of those campaigns (not counting the shortened 2020 season). The Brewers have become the prototype for how a small-market team can consistently compete regardless of being drastically outmatched in payroll. GM Matt Arnold and staff are the main reason for this sustained success, beefing up the arm talent any chance they get, developing prospects throughout the minors, and finding hidden gems for unforeseen run production. Ranking second in team ERA last season, Milwaukee is once again projected to have one of the best pitching staffs in all MLB. If the past nine seasons have proven anything, this team should once again be expected to excel even when oddsmakers doubt them.