As I watched both conference championship games, my immediate reaction was to smash Seattle. My considerable concerns about the Patriots' regular season schedule were not assuaged during their playoff run — and I thought Drake Maye was overrated, given his MVP considerations after watching him in three playoff games. The lookahead line for this potential matchup had the Seahawks as a -3/-3.5 point favorite. When Seattle opened at -4.5, the urgency to invest in them dampened since they were far off a key number — I had the luxury to wait (and the objective is to get it right, rather than simply get it in quickly). Sharp and public money coming in initially on the Seahawks waved a potential red flag. But it should not be underestimated how much uncertainty the books encountered with this matchup. How much information was there to be gleaned from the Patriots' win in a second-half blizzard against a backup quarterback who had not played in two seasons? There were other questions that deserve consideration. How much better is the New England defense with defensive end Milton Williams and cornerback Christian Gonzalez fully healthy (and together) again? Williams missed five games late in the regular season before returning for the season finale. Gonzalez missed the first three games of the season. Additionally, what impact would the season-ending injury to Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet have? Furthermore, while Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold played great against the Rams in the NFC championship, did it really make sense to double down on him after perhaps the best game of his life? I thought I would make a decision, invest, and release my conclusions by midweek (which became Thursday) — and then Seattle’s rookie safety, Nick Emmanwori, got injured in practice. He was the key piece that unlocked this Seahawks defense since head coach Mike Macdonald can play a 4-2-5 base formation with two high safeties without adjusting for running situations, since the former South Carolina star is great against both the run and in pass coverage. So, since I had already gone this far into the second week, I wanted to make sure I was comfortable in all my answers before committing (as always). In reverse order, Emmanwori’s absence in practice to end the week appears precautionary as he was listed as probable, with him declaring he expects to play despite tweaking his ankle. On Darnold, the discourse bothers me so much since it is so much all-or-nothing “bust” or “GOAT” hyperbole. Unquestionably, he has played better under pressure in this postseason, which had been his main weakness in the past. Under pressure this postseason, Darnold had a 102.6 Passer Rating, going 9 of 19 while averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Against blitzing in these playoffs, he has a Passer Rating of 154.2 by completing 12 of 17 passes for 139 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even if I was not ready to lobby for Darnold to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he had now outdueled the league MVP, Matthew Stafford, in two straight games since December 18th. He was as confident as he has ever been — and everyone should get the benefit of the doubt of getting better on a learning curve. I was very impressed with the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator’s game calling against the Rams — not only putting Darnold in a position to succeed but also scheming wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba into advantageous situations. I like Darnold over Maye — and I like the Seattle defense and special teams over those Patriots’ units, so even if some warts reappear, I remain very comfortable with the Seahawks. I preferred them if Charbonnet was available to offer a change of pace — but Walker was a bell-cow running back in college who excelled in that role for Michigan State against top-level competition. He is fine in short-yardage — but Kubiak would likely turn to his A.J. Barner short-yardage packages when needed. Walker getting at least 15 carries offered more opportunities to unlock his unique explosiveness. He has 33 rushes of at least 10 yards and played with tons of energy as the bell-cow against the Rams. With two weeks' rest, he could handle even 25 or more carries.Regarding the improvement of the New England defense, I did think it was legitimate. However, as I will detail below, I didn’t think there was enough in the recent resume to conclude that the unit has become the 1986 Bears. For me, it is too much of a leap of faith to then conclude that unit will overwhelm the Seattle offense that has scored 36.0 Points-Per-Game in the playoffs. Finally, to answer the question about line movement and where the money is going, it has become fishy that the line remains -4.5 for the Seahawks despite the handle on their side. It sure began to look like the books were expecting late money on the Patriots — and that is exactly what is happening as I track the DraftKing numbers. So, I was not spooked by the line or the money movement on this game. My main argument was that I remain steadfast in my skepticism regarding how good this New England team is on both sides of the football. Not only did the Patriots enjoy the easiest regular season schedule this year, according to the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN), but their opponents represented the third-easiest slate of games in hindsight, going all the way to 1978. They set an NFL record by playing 14 opponents that ended the season with a losing record. Only Pittsburgh (in Week Two) and then their pair of games against Buffalo presented opponents that finished the season with a winning percentage over .500 — and the Steelers did not exactly sport the Greatest Show on Turf with their offense. Eleven of their 14 regular season victories came against quarterbacks who were either rookies, backups, or starters who eventually got benched. Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Justin Fields, Dillon Gabriel, Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley — so I was taking all the Patriots’ defensive numbers with a grain of salt — and there were plenty of red flags when looking at the efficiency numbers. Their Red Zone defense ranked 31st in the NFL. Their Run Defense DVOA ranked fifth in the league through the first nine weeks — but that unit dropped to 18th in that metric since (before the AFC championship game blizzard). Then let’s contextualize the Patriots’ three playoff victories. The Los Angeles Chargers were the lowest-rated team of all the AFC squads that made the postseason — and the score was still 9-3 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter before New England scored their final touchdown. It was a prehistoric rock fight before the Chargers’ injuries on the offensive line were simply too much for them to overcome. The Patriots were 0-5 in the Red Zone, which continued their mediocrity inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, where they rank 15th in DVOA. New England only managed 248 total yards. Then, in their 28-16 victory against Houston, they only managed 248 total yards in a game where the Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud hit rock bottom with four interceptions. New England deserved some credit for disrupting Stroud — but those who watched the game also know their eye-test suggests he was a disaster. That leaves us with their victory against the Broncos, where they scored their only touchdown after backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham’s amateur mistake of trying to force an incomplete pass instead of taking the sack, which resulted in a devastating turnover deep in their end. Denver head coach Sean Payton had previously passed up an easy field goal attempt to make the score 10-0. The Patriots secured a 23-yard field goal in the snow midway through the third quarter — and stopping a backup quarterback in a blizzard secured their place in the Super Bowl, despite them gaining only 206 yards. Sorry, not impressed. Frankly, in a transition in the NFL, I suspect Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore all beat this team. And that is all before my thoughts on Drake Maye. Some final comparative numbers I also found persuasive. Taking the cumulative win percentage of New England’s opponents this season, there have been only two teams to win the Super Bowl with a lower number than their -4.49 mark. On the other hand, only 11 of the 120 teams playing in the Super Bowl had a more difficult challenge than Seattle’s +1.61 mark. Eight of those teams then won the Super Bowl. Lastly, not only did the Seahawks have the best net DVOA in the NFL this season, they possess the sixth-best net DVOA mark in NFL history since 1978 (tied with the 1996 Brett Favre/Reggie White/Desmond Howard Green Bay Packers). So, it’s not only how suspicious I was about the Patriots, but I was also compelled by the possibility that this Seattle team may truly be historic. This analysis did not take into account the points we were laying — but the Super Bowl winner was 50-7-2 ATS through the first 59 Super Bowls, so the winner almost always covers. Make that 51-7-2 ATS after Seattle won this Super Bowl by a 29-13 score in a final result that failed to illuminate how much of a mismatch this game was. The Seahawks took a 19-0 lead in the fourth quarter and were later up 29-7 before the Patriots scored a late final touchdown. And we won our 25* National Football League Game of the Year with Seattle minus the points for the fourth time in the last five NFL seasons. Best of luck — Frank.
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