The Copa Sudamericana groups are set with the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 7. Lanus is the defending champion of the competition from last season and the competition has been dominated by clubs from Argentina in recent years. An Argentinian club has won this competition the last 2 straight seasons as well as 3 of the last 6 and an Argentinian club has also made the Final in 4 of the last 7 seasons as well. Now with the start of the group stage just around the corner, it is time to see who has the best chance at bringing home the trophy this season.
To Win Outright
Atlético Mineiro +550: Atlético Mineiro is coming into this competition as the team with the best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They are coming off of a season in which they went to the Copa Sudamericana Final and lost to Lanus in penalties after a 0-0 draw. They are going to be a threat to get there once again, but they are certainly not the strongest team in this tournament despite the listed odds. They are not off to a great start in the Brasileirao and they are a very inconsistent team as well. They have a very good defense which will take them far in this competition, but they struggle to score goals with a weaker attack and that will be a problem for them as that led to them losing in the Final last year. Atletico Mineiro has the quality to make a deep run this year, but they are not a great option to take as the favorite as there are better options with more value. Brasilian clubs have not done well winning this competition over the years as well, Athletico PR being the last team to do it in 2021 and being the only team to do it in the last 7 seasons. Atletico Mineiro is not a bad option to take here, but there are better options to go with in this competition.
Racing Club +650: Racing Club is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They are coming off of a season in which they fizzled out of Copa Libertadores, but they made a very deep run to the Semifinals before losing to the eventual champion Flamengo. They also did very well the last time they were in this competition as they won the 2024 Copa Sudamericana Title with a 3-1 win over Cruzeiro in the Final. They did not have a great start to their domestic season in the LPF, but they have been in much better form recently and this will be a competition that they are focused on since they did win it the last time they were in it. Clubs from Argentina have done very well over the last few years as well, so Racing Club is going to be a big threat here. They have a good defense that will lead them to a deep run in this competition and they have a good attack as well. Racing Club has the quality to make a deep run in this competition and they have the experience of being very successful in these CONMEBOL competitions over the last 2 years. They also play in one of the stronger leagues in all of South America so they have a lot more quality than a lot of the smaller clubs they are going to see here, and they have the willingness to spend money if they need to make moves in the summer to make a big push. Racing Club is not a bad option here and there is some value in them at this price as they should be the favorite in this competition, but they are still not the best option.
River Plate +900: River Plate is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They did not have a good start to the season, but recently they have been rounding into form and have been surging their way up the table. They are one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina and normally they would not be too focused on a competition like this as Copa Libertadores is the competition that they desire to win, but the trophies have really dried up for River Plate in all competitions over the last few seasons, so this would be a good stepping stone for them to reassert their dominance in Argentina. They are supposed to be the team to beat in Argentina every year, but they have not won a trophy in any competition since winning their domestic league back in 2023, and they have not won a South American competition since winning Copa Libertadores back in 2018. This is a competition that River Plate can win though with the strength of the competition and they will be focused on doing well as they can finally add another title to the trophy case while also getting themselves back in Copa Libertadores for next season. They are also a very big club in Argentina that has lots of money to spend and will make the moves needed in the summer to make a deep run in this competition. There is a lot of value in River Plate at this price for what might be the best team in this competition this season.
Botafogo +1000: Botafogo is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They have been one of the better teams in Brasil over the last few years, winning the Brasileirao and even picking up a Copa Libertadores Title in that span, but they have not had a good start to this season and they look to be taking a step back this season. They lost a lot of quality from those teams that were so dominant and they have not done a good job at replacing that quality for this season. They are in line to take a step back this season as they are not as dominant as they once were, and this is not a competition they are going to be focused on this year, especially if they are struggling in the Brasileirao. Clubs from Brasil have already struggled a lot in this competition over the years and Botafogo is a club that has never won this competition nor have they even made the Final. Botafogo does not have the quality this season to be stretched thin by multiple competitions and they also have an awful defense this year that concedes a lot of goals, and that is going to prevent them from making a deep run in this as they will run into trouble eventually. There is not a lot of value in Botafogo at this price with their lack of focus in this competition and they could be a surprise team that fizzles out quickly.
Sao Paulo +1100: Sao Paulo is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They are having a great start to the season in Brasil and they have a lot of quality in their squad which could help them make a deep run in this competition. They are one of the bigger clubs in all of Brasil and they have struggled to compete with some of the other giants in recent years, but this season they have a great squad that can certainly compete. They are the best team from Brasil in this competition this season, but clubs from Brasil have not done well in this competition over the years, including Sao Paulo. Copa Libertadores is the more desired title for a club like Sao Paulo and as a result they have never won Copa Sudamericana nor have they even made it to the Final. They have a good attack as well as a very good defense that does not concede a lot of goals and they have the tools needed to make a deep run here. Sao Paulo is the club from Brasil with the best chance to make a deep run so there is certainly value in them here, but their focus could also come into question later in the season. This competition has not been a focus for them in the past and if they continue on their current trajectory as one of the better teams in Brasil this year, they are going to be in the title race in the Brasileirao which is going to take focus away from this competition. They are still going to be a threat though with the quality they have, so there is some nice value in Sao Paulo at this price as the Brasilian club with the best chance at making a deep run, but they are still not the best option overall.
Vasco da Gama +1200: Vasco da Gama is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at bringing home the Copa Sudamericana Title this season, according to the oddsmakers. They are off to a decent start in the Brasileirao this season, but they have not been a good team in Brasil in recent years. They earned this spot by finishing in 14th place in the Brasileirao last season which was the final Copa Sudamericana spot. They have struggled a lot in recent years though, getting relegated once in the last 5 years, and they have finished in the bottom half of the Brasileirao every year since getting promoted again. They do not have the quality to make a deep run in this competition as they struggle in their own domestic league, and they have also been fighting off relegation a lot so that will take focus away from this competition if they start to slip down the table. They do not have nearly as much quality as the teams ahead of them on this list and there are also plenty of stronger teams behind them who dominate weaker leagues that will give them trouble in this competition. They have a good attack that can score, but their defense is not good as they concede a lot of goals and they will eventually get themselves into trouble with that defense. This has never really been a competition that they have done well in either, never winning the Copa Sudamericana Title in their club history and never even making it to the Final either. Vasco da Gama is not a true contender to win this competition so there is no real value in them at this price.
Recommendation
There are a few very good clubs that look like they could dominate this competition this season, but Copa Sudamericana is also a very difficult tournament to predict from the start. It is better to take a team with a lot of value at this stage in the competition as there is a chance that the Copa Sudamericana winner this season is not even in the competition right now due to the Copa Libertadores drop downs. With the current field of teams though, River Plate at +900 has the most value as they are one of the biggest clubs from a country that has done very well in this competition over the years, and River Plate also has the best squad in the competition. Sao Paulo at +1100 also has some value as they are a very good team this season and even though clubs from Brasil have not done well in recent years, Sao Paulo is the best Brasilian club currently in this competition and they have the quality to make a deep run as well. River Plate at +900 is the best option to go with here followed by Sao Paulo at +1100.