by Hollywood Sports
Tuesday, Mar 31, 2026The Tennessee Volunteers are a very good college basketball program under head coach Rick Barnes. Reaching the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament is a very impressive accomplishment. But the writing was on the wall that they would struggle to stay competitive against the Michigan Wolverines in the Elite Eight of this year’s Big Dance.
Michigan had demonstrated that they can still thrive despite the season-ending injury to off-the-bench spark plug L.J. Cason. The Wolverines had scored at least 90 points in each of their three NCAA Tournament games — becoming just the eighth team in the history of the Big Dance to accomplish that feat in their first three games in the tournament. They reached the Elite Eight with a 90-77 victory against Alabama in the Sweet 16. Teams coming off high-scoring efforts in the NCAA Tournament are reliable bets in their next game, as 44 of the last 71 games in the Big Dance have covered the point spread after scoring 88 or more points in their previous game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They had also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on the road for the second time in three days.
Michigan is one of the most balanced teams in the nation — they rank sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they had defeated three teams in Ken Pomeroy’s top ten rankings for Adjusted Net Efficiency — Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State — and all three of those victories were by double-digits. The Wolverines had covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court when the Total is set in the 140s — and they had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 tournament games since Dusty May became their head coach. Furthermore, in May’s 33 games in his head coaching career, when his team was favored by six or more points against a non-conference opponent, his teams had covered the point spread in 26 of those contests.
Tennessee held Iowa State to just 21.7% shooting from behind the arc in their 76-72 upset victory against them as a 2.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16, which was their best perimeter defensive effort in their last 25 contests. But the Volunteers had failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after an upset victory — and head coach Rick Barnes’ teams had failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their 28 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tennessee had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road after winning three or more games in a row.
The Volunteers were a great rebounding team — and they led the nation by pulling down 45.0% of their missed shots. But Michigan’s size was going to disrupt them. Aday Mara is 7’3 and joined by two other players at 6’9 in the Wolverines’ starting front-line. They ranked 38th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 27.0% of their missed shots. Away from home, Tennessee saw their offensive rebounding drop by -8.6%, which is the fifth biggest decline in Division I.
The Volunteers’ weakness was that they are not a good shooting team. They ranked 175th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They also only made 69.4% of their free throws, ranking 287th. Their efficiency was not helped by a turnover rate of 17.5%, ranking 235th in the nation. On the road, their shooting inside the arc declined by -7.3% to a 49.1% clip, which ranks 239th. Their free throw shooting dipped to 67.1%, ranking 326th — and they could afford to be giving away points against Michigan. The Wolverines were outscoring their opponents by +17.7 Points-Per-Game — and Tennessee had failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.
The Wolverines were shooting 51.1% from the field and holding their opponents to 38.6% shooting — and the Volunteers had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against teams that make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. Tennessee was making 46.6% of their shots and holding their opponents to 40.7% shooting — and Michigan had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road against teams who made at least 45% of their shots and were holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting.
The Volunteers held things tight early, but a 31-10 run in the final ten minutes of the first half gave the Wolverines a 48-26 lead going into halftime. Given Tennessee’s struggles to make baskets, it was going to take a Herculean defensive performance in the second half to get them back into the game. But Michigan scored another 26 points in the first ten minutes of the second half and cruised to a 95-62 victory to advance to the Final Four. And Hollywood Sports won our 25* College Basketball Game of the Month.
Best of luck — Frank.
Michigan had demonstrated that they can still thrive despite the season-ending injury to off-the-bench spark plug L.J. Cason. The Wolverines had scored at least 90 points in each of their three NCAA Tournament games — becoming just the eighth team in the history of the Big Dance to accomplish that feat in their first three games in the tournament. They reached the Elite Eight with a 90-77 victory against Alabama in the Sweet 16. Teams coming off high-scoring efforts in the NCAA Tournament are reliable bets in their next game, as 44 of the last 71 games in the Big Dance have covered the point spread after scoring 88 or more points in their previous game in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. They had also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing with one day or less of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on the road for the second time in three days.
Michigan is one of the most balanced teams in the nation — they rank sixth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, they had defeated three teams in Ken Pomeroy’s top ten rankings for Adjusted Net Efficiency — Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State — and all three of those victories were by double-digits. The Wolverines had covered the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They had covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court when the Total is set in the 140s — and they had covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 tournament games since Dusty May became their head coach. Furthermore, in May’s 33 games in his head coaching career, when his team was favored by six or more points against a non-conference opponent, his teams had covered the point spread in 26 of those contests.
Tennessee held Iowa State to just 21.7% shooting from behind the arc in their 76-72 upset victory against them as a 2.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16, which was their best perimeter defensive effort in their last 25 contests. But the Volunteers had failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after an upset victory — and head coach Rick Barnes’ teams had failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their 28 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tennessee had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road after winning three or more games in a row.
The Volunteers were a great rebounding team — and they led the nation by pulling down 45.0% of their missed shots. But Michigan’s size was going to disrupt them. Aday Mara is 7’3 and joined by two other players at 6’9 in the Wolverines’ starting front-line. They ranked 38th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding just 27.0% of their missed shots. Away from home, Tennessee saw their offensive rebounding drop by -8.6%, which is the fifth biggest decline in Division I.
The Volunteers’ weakness was that they are not a good shooting team. They ranked 175th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%. They also only made 69.4% of their free throws, ranking 287th. Their efficiency was not helped by a turnover rate of 17.5%, ranking 235th in the nation. On the road, their shooting inside the arc declined by -7.3% to a 49.1% clip, which ranks 239th. Their free throw shooting dipped to 67.1%, ranking 326th — and they could afford to be giving away points against Michigan. The Wolverines were outscoring their opponents by +17.7 Points-Per-Game — and Tennessee had failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG.
The Wolverines were shooting 51.1% from the field and holding their opponents to 38.6% shooting — and the Volunteers had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against teams that make at least 45% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. Tennessee was making 46.6% of their shots and holding their opponents to 40.7% shooting — and Michigan had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road against teams who made at least 45% of their shots and were holding their opponents to no higher than 42% shooting.
The Volunteers held things tight early, but a 31-10 run in the final ten minutes of the first half gave the Wolverines a 48-26 lead going into halftime. Given Tennessee’s struggles to make baskets, it was going to take a Herculean defensive performance in the second half to get them back into the game. But Michigan scored another 26 points in the first ten minutes of the second half and cruised to a 95-62 victory to advance to the Final Four. And Hollywood Sports won our 25* College Basketball Game of the Month.
Best of luck — Frank.
