Mid-American Conference Preview
Regular Season Win Totals and MAC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Miami (OH): 8 Over +100 Under -120/+250 MAC WinnerToledo: 8.5 Over +120 Under -140/+280 MAC WinnerBowling Green: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130/+700 MAC WinnerNorthern Illinois: 6.5 Over -120 Under +100/+650 MAC WinnerOhio: 6.5 Over +130 Under -155/+1,000 MAC WinnerWestern Michigan: 6.5 Over -120 Under +100/+650 MAC WinnerBuffalo: 5 Over -125 Under +105/+3,500 MAC WinnerCentral Michigan: 5.5 Over -150 Under +125/+1,400 MAC WinnerBall State: 4 Over -110 Under -110/+3,500 MAC WinnerEastern Michigan 4.5 Over -135 Under +115/+3,000 MAC WinnerAkron: 3.5 Over +105 Under -125/+6,000 MAC WinnerKent State: 2.5 Over -150 Under +125/+25,000 MAC Winner
Coaching Changes
Buffalo: Maurice Linguist Out ~ Pete Lembo In
Miami (OH) RedHawks 11-3 ~ 7-1 MAC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6
Miami was coming off a very average run where it had gone 12 straight seasons having not won more than eight games and taking out the 2-1 COVID season, the RedHawks had just two winning seasons but nearly everything went right in 2023. They went 11-3, the most wins since winning 13 games in 2003, and following a loss at Miami Fl. to open the season, the other two losses were by a combined eight points. Miami is going to be good again but will likely not match what it did last season with some key personnel losses and it will be facing a stronger schedule. The offense was not great last season and the RedHawks lose their top two running backs and leading receiver but they do bring back quarterback Brett Gabbert, who is projected First All MAC as well as four of five offensive linemen so the foundation is there. The defense led the way as Miami ranked No. 27 overall and No. 8 in scoring and it was legit down the stretch, not allowing more than 21 points in its last 11 games. Six starters are back with what is likely still the best defense in the MAC. With the divisions no longer around, Miami takes a hit because it played in the weaker MAC East and this year misses Buffalo and Akron while picking up Northern Illinois and having to face Toledo on the road.
Toledo Rockets 11-3 ~ 8-0 MAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4
The Rockets continue to be the most consistent team in the MAC as they have gone 14 consecutive seasons without a losing record and have had only one losing record within the conference over that stretch. 2023 was a season of what could have been as Toledo blew a late lead and lost to Illinois in the season opener by two points then won 11 straight games before coming up short against Miami in the MAC Championship Game. It was the first season the Rockets have gone undefeated in MAC play but that will unlikely take place again as they bring back only eight starters, four on each side of the ball. Toledo had a potent offense again, finishing No. 40 overall and No. 31 in scoring but could not solve Miami and now are without quarterback Dequan Finn who transferred out and the Rockets have to replace their entire offensive line with limited experience in those areas. They do get their top four receivers back. Toledo had their best season on defense since 2000 in terms of scoring with 20.3 ppg allowed but they need a lot of help to maintain that potent unit. Toledo has a couple tough but winnable games at Mississippi St. and Western Kentucky and while it faces all four of the other top teams, three of those are at home with only Northern Illinois on the road.
Bowling Green Falcons 7-6 ~ 5-3 MAC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7
After seven straight losing seasons, Bowling Green finally put together a winning campaign as it finished 7-6 but concluded the season with a loss in the Quick Lane Bowl for a second straight season. The Falcons 5-3 MAC record included all five wins against losing teams and all three losses against winning teams and with a tougher schedule in 2024, they are going to have to find a way to beat the top teams which they are very capable of doing. Both sides of the ball showed notable improvement in 2023 as the offense averaged more than 25 ppg for the first time since 2015 and allowed fewer than 25 ppg for the first time since 2013 so the record was not really indicative of what was accomplished. Bowling Green is the third most experienced team in the conference and have 15 returning starters in some key areas. The Falcons are led by quarterback Conner Bazelak who was far from great but should be better this season and the offensive line has four of five starters back. Defensively, the Falcons improved by 8.5 ppg and close to 100 ypg from 2023 and have seven starters back so that unit too could be even better. They have brutal road games at Penn St. and Texas A&M while in the MAC, the only true road test is at Toledo as they get Northern Illinois and Miami at home.
Northern Illinois Huskies 7-6 ~ 5-3 MAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
Since winning 11 or 12 games for five straight years between 2010-2014, it has been an inconsistent run the last nine seasons with five winning records and four losing campaigns. The Huskies were in danger of a losing season last year with a 1-4 start but the schedule eased up in the second half and they won their final two games to become bowl eligible. Not that it is huge going forward but Northern Illinois snapped its seven-game bowl losing streak with its 21-19 win over Arkansas St. in the Camellia Bowl. This will be the fourth straight season Northern Illinois will have at least 15 starters back and it is capable of its best one over this stretch. A lot of that will have to do with finding a quarterback as there is a three-way battle with not much experience in this system. To ease that transition, the Huskies are going to rely on running Antario Brown who rushed for 1,339 yards and is running behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in the MAC. Northern Illinois improved its defense by 11.8 ppg and 76 ypg from 2023 and it finished No. 23 overall and has a chance to be better with eight starters back along with solid depth. The Huskies have two rough games at Notre Dame and N.C. State while the MAC schedule is tough with only one home game against the top six (Toledo) but they avoid Ohio.
Ohio Bobcats 10-3 ~ 6-2 MAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 4
The biggest top team in transition in the MAC will be Ohio. The Bobcats are coming off consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in program history as head coach Tim Albin has kept this program strong despite a 3-9 season in his first one in 2021 but now comes a real challenge. Ohio is the most inexperienced team in the MAC while bringing back only six starters so there is not much to work with but the schedule is on their side. The offense faced adversity last season with some key injuries but they were able to get through it with their worst offensive season with 347.7 ypg since 2010. They lose one time First Team quarterback Kurtis Rourke who transferred to Indiana along with eight other starters on offense and in total, gone are the top three rushers accounting for 1,637 yards and their top seven receivers accounting for 2,386 yards. It was the defense that carried Ohio, finishing No. 3 overall and No. 5 in scoring, its best season since at least 1997 when our database goes back. Unfortunately, only four starters are back along with a new defensive coordinator. Ohio has Syracuse and Kentucky in the nonconference and in the MAC it has one of the easier schedules as the Bobcats avoid Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Western Michigan but have both Toledo and Miami on the road.
Western Michigan Broncos 4-8 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
It was a rough season for Western Michigan but not much was expected as the Broncos were breaking in a new head coach, had only 10 returning starters and were the second least experienced team in the MAC. Following a win over St. Francis, five of the next seven games were on the road, three at Power Five teams, as well as playing Toledo, Miami and Ohio so there was no chance. Western Michigan now goes from one of the least experienced teams in the country to one of the most experienced and it is now playing an easier schedule. The Broncos have nine starters back on offense including all of the skill positions and will be led by quarterback Hayden Wolff who had average numbers but he took over the starting job after five games and the offense improved dramatically. The concern is replacing two offensive linemen. Defensively, they had only two starters back last season and now eight return that will look to improve its 31.8 ppg allowed. One of the losses was huge with defensive end Marshawn Kneeland being taken in the second round by the Cowboys. They open the season with a pair of losses at Wisconsin and Ohio St. but then there are numerous winnable games going forward and they avoid Miami, Toledo and Ohio so a bowl should be in their future.
Buffalo Bulls 3-9 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 7
Buffalo found some late success in the final three years with head coach Lance Leipold with a 24-10 record from 2018-2020 but he moved on to Kansas and Maurice Linguist came into a tough situation with a practically a bare cupboard. He left after last season to become an assistant at Alabama and the Bulls hired Pete Lembo who was a former head coach at Ball St. and spent the last three years at South Carolina as an assistant head coach and special teams coach but he too comes into a tough situation. This is the fourth straight season that Buffalo will return only 10 starters so there has not been much to work with. The offense averaged 20.9 ppg last season, it lowest since 2016 and now they are starting from scratch as they have to replace the quarterback, top two rushers and top five receivers. Buffalo does have three offensive linemen returning to build around but this unit is going to struggle to consistently move the ball. The Bulls are better off on defense with seven starters returning with the back end being the strength but there will not be enough big improvement to carry the offense. The only saving grace is facing the fifth easiest schedule in the nation with Missouri being the lone nonconference test. The MAC slate is top heavy which could lead to early confidence loss.
Central Michigan Chippewas 5-7 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6
The Chippewas are coming off their second straight losing season under veteran head coach Jim McElwain after going 20-13 in his first three seasons following successful stints at Colorado St. and Florida. They have underachieved with seven losses the last two years coming against teams with losing records so those winnable games have to be taken although there may not be many of those opportunities this season. Central Michigan has regressed on both offense and defense each of the last three seasons, going from +6.5 ppg to -3.4 ppg and -7.9 ppg in scoring differential. Quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. will be the key to the offense as their starter transferred but he does have experience from last season and the Chippewas have their top two rushers and top five receivers back. Defensively, there are a lot of gaps to fill, mostly with the pass rush and in the secondary but they will be bigger up front and the linebackers will be the strength to keep the unit together until the rest of the team can gel and try and find some form of chemistry. They have the hardest schedule in the MAC as they face Toledo, Miami, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Ohio and overall, they face four teams coming off their bye week so this slate will be the biggest challenge getting to a bowl game.
Ball St. Cardinals 4-8 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 1
Ball St. has not been relevant for a long time as with the exception of their 7-1 COVID season where it actually finished No. 23 in the AP Poll, it has not had a winning season since 2013 and the Cardinals are now 37-56 under head coach Mike Neu. It might take something special to save his job but it could be another challenging season as the Cardinals early season schedule could determine the beginning of the end. Ball St. has gone the wrong way on offense in each of the last five seasons and it bottomed out last year as it averaged just 18.3 ppg on 308 ypg but there could be major improvements in 2024. Quarterback Kadin Semonza played in four games last season before the coaching staff decided to redshirt him so he has experience. Their leading receiver is back but more importantly, Ty Robinson is back after missing the season after two games. Three projected All MAC offensive linemen are back. The defense was stout and carried the team but now only one starter is back, linebacker Keionte Newson who led the team with 81 tackles. New coordinator Jeff Knowles led Butler to one of the best defenses in the FCS. Five of the first seven games are on the road with Kent St. being the only likely win and while three of the last five are at home, they are against the top five teams in the MAC.
Eastern Michigan Eagles 6-7 ~ 4-4 MAC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6
While there has not been any huge success for Eastern Michigan under head coach Chris Creighton, he has made the Eagles one of the most consistent teams in the MAC. Eastern Michigan was a mess for years with losing records in 17 of 18 seasons before he took over in 2014 and while it took him two years to find his team, he has had only three losing seasons the last eight, two of those were due to bowl losses. Getting to a bowl for a fourth straight season could be a challenge though. The offense was bad last season as the Eagles averaged only 19.5 ppg and this is the area where they will struggle at least early on as all three quarterbacks, their top four rushers and three of their top four receivers are gone. They get transfer quarterback Cole Snyder from Buffalo where he started two years. The defense has not been great for a few years and last year was no exception. Eastern Michigan has six starters back with holes at all three levels and will sorely miss Chase Kline and Joe Sparacio who combined for a whopping 279 tackles. The Eagles have the second easiest schedule in the MAC and should go 3-1 in nonconference play with the loss being at Washington and the conference slate is not bad as they get Miami and Toledo at home and do miss Bowling Green and Northern Illinois.
Akron Zips 2-10 ~ 1-7 MAC ~ 4-6-2 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 6
Akron went to the MAC Championship game back in 2017 where it lost to Toledo by 17 points and then lost to Florida Atlantic 50-3 in the Boca Raton Bowl and it has been all downhill since then. The Zips have not had a winning season since then and have not had more than two wins in five straight seasons, accumulating a 7-47 record over that stretch. Making it worse, three of those victories were against FCS teams. Akron returns the fourth least experienced team and has only nine starters back and finding more than three wins on the schedule is a challenge. Akron has to rebuild an offense that averaged just 16.3 ppg on 279 ypg as it losses both top quarterbacks, top two rushers and top three receivers. But the Zips do get NC State and Cal transfer quarterback Ben Finley however only one starter along the offensive line is back. The defense will try and carry the team as the unit has improved each of the last four seasons but still gave up 28 ppg last year. The front seven is the strength as that is where all six starters return so the bad news is that the entire secondary has to be replaced. The nonconference schedule includes a home game against Colgate but also consists of games at Ohio St., Rutgers and South Carolina. Of the top five teams in the MAC, the Zips only avoid Miami.
Kent St. Golden Flashes 1-11 ~ 0-8 MAC ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 4
Kent St. has had some bad seasons in program history and last year ranked right up there. The Golden Flashes went 1-11 with the only win coming against Central Connecticut St. of the FCS, 10 of their losses were by double digits and they were outscored by nearly 20 ppg. This was expected as head coach Sean Lewis left to be the offensive coordinator at Colorado and the roster dissipated quickly and they did not have a single starter back on offense and only four returned on defense. Things are expected to be better under second year head coach Kenni Burns but how much better is the question. There are nine starters back on offense so Burns kept a significant amount of the core and while that offense was bad, it will be in its second year in the system. Quarterback Tommy Ulatowski made three starts and needs to be more efficient while his two leading receivers are back and a Michigan St. transfer will be in the mix. The entire offensive line is back. The defense is not as experienced with four starters back for a second straight season. All three levels need some major improvement to keep the pressure off the offense if there is any success on that side. Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Penn St. dot the nonconference slate and there are a couple winnable MAC games but not enough.
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