For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.APPALACHIAN STATE: After seeing their seven-season run of at least nine victories snapped with their 6-6 campaign in 2022, it looked like head coach Shawn Clark righted the ship by reshuffling his coaching staff with a new offensive and defensive coordinator and getting back to playing Mountaineers football in a 9-5 campaign the next season. But a 5-6 record last year was enough for the administration to fire him after his fifth year with the program. It’s risky to fire someone who oversaw a 40-24 record. On the other hand, last year was the football team’s first losing season since 2013 and just the fourth losing record since 1981. Only five starters return after more than 40 players left the program in the transfer portal including quarterback Joey Aguilar who ultimately took his services to Tennessee. The new head coach is Dowell Loggains who did a nice job improving South Carolina’s offense the last two seasons as their head coach. He is respected as a good recruiter. He has plenty of NFL experience having spent 2005-2020 in the league either as an offensive coordinator or a quarterbacks coach. He will call the plays for Appalachian State — but this is the first time as a head coach. He brought in 16 transfers in time for spring practice including ten players on offense. The team entered the fall practice with more than 30 transfers including many former 3-star or 4-star recruits. But a vast majority of these players are unproven at the FBS level. The defense lost their top four tacklers from a group that bottomed out by surrendering 32.9 Points-Per-Game and 412.5 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 114th and 104th in the nation. On paper, this unit is bigger up front and faster in the secondary. Yet the Mountaineers may simply be one of the victims of this new era of college football with the transfer portal and NIL disrupting their reign as being one of the elite Group of Five programs. BALL STATE: It turns out that the Cardinals’Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 was simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season. Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since. Neu was fired with two games left in a season where they finished just 3-9. The Cardinals posted a with an 18-31 record overall and a 12-120 conference mark in the last four years since that triumph. The administration appears to have made a good hire in Butler head coach Mike Uremovich who turned that struggling FCS program around with a 23-11 record in his three seasons. The former Temple and Northern Illinois offensive coordinator is a familiar face for high school coaches in Indiana — and he has experience coaching in the MAC. He reunites with defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles who took over running the Ball State defense last year after serving as the Bulldogs DC under Knowles. That unit was a disaster last season by ranking 131st and 124th in the nation by surrendering 40.1 Points-Per-Game and 454.9 total Yards-Per-Game. Three starters are back from that group — and Uremovich brought in ten transfers. The offense only has one starter back — but it looks like Uremovich may give the keys to the unit to senior Kiael Kelly who started the final six games under center in 2023. With redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza returning for his second season after taking his redshirt after starting the first four games in 2023, the coaching staff wanted to utilize Kelly’s athleticism by moving him to the secondary and then the wide receiver room. Neither experiment worked. Uremovich’s top two rushers last season at Butler were quarterbacks for an offense that generated 407.8 YPG which resulted in 35.7 PPG. Uremovich’s reputation is that he adapts his offensive schemes to his talent — so returning to the run-heavy RPO approach used with Kelly in those final six games is likely. While he only completed 53% of his passes, he rank for 724 yards and seven touchdowns. More importantly, Ball State went 3-3 in his six starts — and their three losses were all decided by one scoring possession. Running the ball more will certainly help the defense with the offense burning more time off the clock. CALIFORNIA: The Golden Bears started the season 3-0 — and then lost four games in a row decided by a single play. They finished the year with a 6-7 record losing seven of their last ten games — yet they had a +0.0 net Yards-Per-Game differential in the ACC that betrayed their 2-6 conference record. They played in a bowl game where they lost to UNLV in the LA Bowl by a 24-13 score. Ninth-year head coach Justin Wilcox lost long-time defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon who moves to the NFL to be an assistant coach with the New Orleans Saints. He hired former Boise State and Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin as his new offensive coordinator after they were both assistant coaches for the Broncos in the late aughts under Chris Peterson. And then spring practice happened when afterward 23 players left the program by entering the transfer portal. Overall, at least 33 players have left the program with the majority on offense. Wilcox is a fighter — and he was very aggressive in the portal in finding answers to the departures. But having to make these adjustments after spring practice is far from ideal. There are a lot of ways to read this program. Their ranking of 55th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ metrics was the best finish in the Wilcox era. But a West Coast team playing half their conference games on the East Coast is uniquely difficult. Only six starters are back — but Wilcox brought in another eight starters from other FBS programs and the accumulated starts he brought in from the portal of 132 was more than the aggregate 96 starts he had coming back. I think Wilcox is a fine coach — but it remains that Cal has a 7-36 straight-up record versus winning teams in his tenure after losing all five of those games last season. I may be confusing being a good football coach with being a reliable underdog who losing close games -- because Cal has been nice as a dog under Wilcox. And now there is the Ron Rivera factor after the administration brought in their former alum and NFL head coach to serve as the new general manager. I like Rivera because I like guys who played and coached in the Super Bowl. If Rivera is here to do all he can do to help Wilcox, he should be a great collaborator. But if Rivera is eying to become Cal’s next head coach, then this is a disaster in the making with Wilcox already on the hot seat. I have no idea what Rivera’s motivations are — just another reason with all the uncertainty from the Golden Bears’ post-spring practice moves to stay initially tentative on Cal (unless something pops). CENTRAL MICHIGAN: After overseeing a 20-13 record in his first three seasons (including the shortened 2020 campaign), head coach Jim McElwain just seemed to lose steam over the last few years. The Chippewas have a 13-23 record in the last three seasons after their 4-8 campaign last year — and that prompted McElwain to retire after six seasons. Injuries on offense did not help matters as they were down to their fourth quarterback at one point while losing their top five wide receivers to injury. On the positive side, the defense was improved by ranking 59th in the nation by giving up 363.6 total Yards-Per-Game. After struggling to generate havoc plays for several seasons, the Central Michigan defense ranked 11th in Stuff Rate and 13th in Sack Rate — but the unit still gave up too many big plays. Seven starters return on that side of the ball with more playmakers than in the past few seasons. In comes first-year head coach Matt Drinkall who served as the offensive line coach at Army for the last six seasons. He was promoted to co-offensive coordinator in 2023 and enlisted to adapt the spread triple-option to a new blocking scheme after the NCAA implemented new cut-blocking rules — but his shift to a shotgun-styled attack failed and he was demoted back to just the offensive line coach last year. On the other hand, he had a successful five-year run at Kansas Wesleyan as their head coach from 2014-2019 where they had a 42-17 record. He inherits a strong culture with talent left over from McElwain even if they were not meeting their high expectations. How the offense will develop will be interesting as Drinkall does not plan to go all-in on a nearly complete rushing attack like the one at Army. Former Iowa transfer Joe Labas was the initial starting quarterback last year but suffered a season-ending injury in the sixth game of the season. He completed 59% of his passes and is not very mobile — so he may not fit in Drinkall’s more comfortable schematic approaches. CINCINNATI: The Bearcats made the four-team college football playoff four seasons ago. A year later, Luke Fickell left for the program to take the head coaching job at Wisconsin. In came Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield, who had great success at Appalachian State before mixed results in four seasons with the Cardinals. Satterfield is now on the hot seat after two straight losing seasons and an 8-16 combined record. What’s the problem? Was the move to the Big 12 a big ask for this previous Group of Five heavyweight? Fickell got out of Dodge after Cincinnati’s last season in the American Athletic Conference. Or is perhaps the problem Satterfield, who had similar issues — and plenty of excuses — in his tenure at Louisville? The Bearcats opened the season by winning five of seven games — but they lost their last five games and failed to make a bowl game. They only scored 19.3 Points-Per-Game in their last seven contests. On the one hand, they did outgain their Big 12 opponents by +26 net Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-6 record in conference play. They only won one of their four games decided by seven points or less. But this is a team that is heavily dependent on the transfer portal. Losing these close games may be symptomatic of culture issues on the team — something Satterfield struggled with at Louisville. He added speed in the wide receiver room in the offseason after last year’s offense lacked explosiveness. The excuse for a defense that ranked 85th in the nation by surrendering 385.4 total Yards-Per-Game is that new defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt got started late after only getting hired in January (that sounds hollow). More transfers were trucked in during the offseason, especially in the secondary, where Cincinnati lost three safeties to the NFL and both their starting cornerbacks to the transfer portal. This is Satterfield’s most talented team since arriving here — but the fundamental questions regarding his leadership abilities and this program’s ability to survive and thrive in the Big East remain unanswered.CLEMSON: This is the most-hyped Clemson team since the Trevor Lawrence era. Is it warranted — or is nostalgia influencing some of these predictions? There is plenty to like. The Tigers got a taste of the College Football Playoff year — and 14 starters are back from that group, including senior Cade Klubnik, who many consider the best college quarterback in the nation. Head coach Dabo Swinney finally used the transfer portal to strategic benefit by targeting three potential impact players: wide receiver Tristan Smith from Southeast Missouri State, defensive end Will Heidt from Purdue, and linebacker Jeremiah Alexander from Alabama. The wide receiver room is loaded. Four seniors are back on the offensive line. The defensive line has at least two players who appear destined to be drafted in the first round in next April’s NFL draft. Swinney poached Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen away — the former Indiana head coach is a steady hand who will get more from the unit than Wes Goodwin did. But is the cart leading the horse for a program that has not won a playoff game since the offense was run by Tony Elliott and the defensive coordinator was Brent Venables? How much of the Tigers’ great success over the last decade was due to those two outstanding coordinators? Who did Clemson beat last year? They defeated SMU on a walk-off field goal in the ACC Championship Game. The Mustangs made the playoffs — but they got exposed in a four-touchdown loss against Penn State after taking advantage of a soft schedule. The second-best team the Tigers beat was either Virginia Tech or North Carolina State. Seriously. Georgia crushed them in the opener by a 34-3 score. Admittedly, the insertion of freshmen wide receivers T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr. instantly made the offense better. But they lost at home to Louisville by a 33-21 score. They lost at home against South Carolina, 17-14. After their 38-24 loss at Texas in their playoff game, the Tigers ended the season with an 0-3 record against the SEC while getting outscored by a whopping 89-41 margin. Just how good is Klubnik? He averaged only 11.7 Yards-Per-Completion — and the offense ranked 80th in the nation in Yards-Per-Successful Dropback. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings placed their defense at 29th, which was the lowest rating since 2012. They surrendered 160.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game which ranked 85th in the nation — and the 4.71 Yards-Per-Carry they gave up was their worst mark since 1975. Their defense ranked 69th by giving up 374.1 total YPP — and they ranked 51st in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense was young — and 13 of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back, including nine who were freshmen or sophomores last year. But this team also benefited from a +16 net turnover margin. On paper, the returning production and resulting team chemistry seem very promising. Yet the circumstances are much different than what they were in 2020 when the Tigers were coming off losing to LSU in the National Championship Game. COLORADO: Head coach Deion Sanders deserves a lot of credit for overseeing significant improvement on both sides of the ball last season. The offensive line improved — and the offense scored +4.7 more Points-Per-Game and generated +29.6 more Yards-Per-Game. Their 32.9 PPG mark ranked 31st in the nation. The growth on defense was even more profound as they surrendered -101.4 fewer YPG and -11.7 PPG. After ranking 113th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings the prior year, they rose to 43rd in that metric last season. The result was a 9-4 season where they were in the mix to play for the Big 12 conference championship game in late November, and they reached a bowl game (losing to BYU in the Alamo Bowl by a 36-14 score). When considering that Coach Prime inherited a program that hit rock bottom in 2022 with a 1-11 season and only winning season in 16 years, reaching nine wins in Year Two is remarkable. Six starters return, plus at least another 30 players in the transfer portal. There continue to be reasons for optimism. The Buffaloes should have their best offensive and defensive lines in his tenure — and those are the areas that are hardest to build from scratch. It looks like he found the right people in offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and defensive coordinator Robert Livingstone, who both bring a wealth of NFL experience to the table. But Colorado now must replace the heart and soul of their team, the last two seasons, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. The loss of Hunter is devastating since he was a generational talent making significant contributions as a lockdown cornerback and a wide receiver who was so good the Jacksonville Jaguars are privileging his getting comfortable at that position for them before they bring him along in their secondary. Sanders' slide to the fifth round in the NFL draft should not diminish his importance to this team. He completed 74% of his passes last year for 4134 passing yards — and he accounted for 37 touchdowns. But his father was not shy about bringing in his replacement. Sanders tapped senior Kaiden Salter in the transfer portal after he was a three-year starter at Liberty. While he had a down year last season, he has still passed for 4762 passing yards and added 1840 non-sack rushing yards, and got into the end zone 66 times. Coach Prime also brought five-star freshman quarterback Julian “JuJu” Lewis. The Buffaloes have not run the ball much the last two years — whether that was because of the state of the offensive line or head coach Sanders wanting to showcase his son’s talent in the passing game to audition him for the next level — that will change this season. Both Salter and Lewis are dual-threat options under center — and both will likely have packages. More balance in their offensive attack should help their offensive line and their defense by keeping that group off the field a little more. Colorado did lose four of their six games against teams that finished in the SP+ final top 50 rankings — and the schedule gets much tougher this season. Sanders has the personal challenge of coaching while recovering from bladder cancer — but he has defined his role in the CEO vein, so he hopefully can take things at his own pace. While others point to his 4-3 record in his coaching career when his son was not the starting quarterback going back to the pre-Colorado days, I believe him when he claims he is committed to being a teacher to young people. I don’t issue him demerits for his expertise in manipulating the media and drawing attention (and the eyeballs from potential high school recruits). Given their schedule, the Buffaloes may be better on the field than their record suggests. FLORIDA ATLANTIC: After a successful run under head coach Lane Kiffin, the Owls have tried to replicate that formula of hiring high-profile coaches needing an opportunity to re-establish their pedigree with the hires Willie Taggart and Tom Herman. But FAU has a 22-35 record since Kiffin left for Ole Miss — and the administration let go of Herman after his second year with his opening 4-8 campaign dropping to 3-9 last season. In comes 33-year-old Zach Kittley who had been the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech for the last three seasons. One of his first moves was to bring in junior quarterback Caden Veltcamp from Western Kentucky where Kittley originally recruited him when he was their offensive coordinator four years ago. For need and continuity, the Owls also brought in wide receiver Easton Messer from the Hilltoppers. Veltcamp completed 66.3% of his passes and threw for over 3100 yards — so the foundation is there on offense despite only two starters back from last year. The defense only has one returning starter as well. Hiring a 33-year-old should be a longer-term plan than what Herman got in only two seasons. Kittley brought in at least 35 transfers including at least 19 who were in the first official season. For a program that has not made a bowl game in five seasons, expectations should not be high. Yet maybe the coach-quarterback combination can find some magic right off the bat.FLORIDA STATE: In my deep dive on the Seminoles two years ago, my biggest question with this team was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 games in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia still left the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returned only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players, including five from Alabama. Last year, my biggest question regarded whether Norvell was ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture. Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? After the nightmare of last season when Florida State collapsed to a 2-10 record, some answers became apparent. Norvell is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out — most notably with quarterback D.J. Uigalelei. The Seminoles ranked 130th and 132nd in the nation by scoring only 15.4 Points-Per-Game and 270.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Norvell is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. The Seminoles will certainly be better this year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs. The coaching staff was overhauled despite them being the ones who were in charge during their 13-1 campaign two years ago. Just looking at the quarterback situation demonstrates the crapshoot Norvell is now in. He brought in senior Tommy Castellanos who, on paper, seems like a great fit with new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The mobile quarterback was originally recruited by Malzahn at Central Florida. He later transferred to Boston College where he ran for 1100 yards two years ago. But Castellanos completed only 57.3% of his passes and threw 14 interceptions that season. He improved those numbers last year by completing 61.5% of his passes and throwing only five interceptions. But head coach Bill O’Brien still eventually benched him. Using the portal can certainly uncover hidden gems like Jared Key. But it is hard to bank on uncovering gem after gem. More often, assembling an island of misfit toys year after year leads to wild volatility as last season demonstrated. GEORGIA TECH: Head coach Brent Kay has definitely demonstrated that he is the right man for the job of rebuilding the Yellow Jackets football program. For the second straight season, Georgia Tech finished with a 7-6 record and played in a bowl game. Their losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech were when starting quarterback Haynes King was out with an injury — but they had a 7-4 record when he played and were competitive in all four of their losses when he played including a five-overtime thriller against Georgia. The dual-threat quarterback posted a 14:2 touchdown to interception ratio while rushing for over 500 yards despite often playing at less than 100%. The former Texas A&M transfer accounted for 35 touchdowns for the Yellow Jackson in his first year as a starter two years — and he did a great job in limiting his mistakes last year after throwing 16 interceptions in 2023. He is joined by senior running back Jamal Haynes who rushed for 944 yards despite being banged up for much of the year. What is exciting about what Kay is doing is that he has drastically improved the high school recruiting and is winning in the transfer portal despite being at a strong academic institution. He brought in a top 20 high school class this year. He retained his top returning players while adding many players in the transfer portal who combined for 88 starts last season. The offense has five starters back — and Kay added perhaps Florida International’s top two players, wide receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 112 receptions, 1857 receiving yards, and 19 touchdowns. Kay also retained third-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke who both looked destined for bigger things. The defense was significantly better last season by holding their opponents to 342.8 total Yards-Per-Game which ranked 42nd in the nation after ranking 120th in that category the previous year by surrendering 437.1 total YPG. The biggest loss for the team was the departure of defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci who left after one season to become the linebackers coach for the Baltimore Ravens. Kay tapped Blake Gideon to run the defense this season — he is considered a rising star who coached the safeties at Texas last year. Four starters are back — and Kay added several impact transfers including three who were starters last season. This side of the ball remains the biggest question as Georgia Tech gave up at least 31 points in five of these six losses. But the talent on defense is certainly improving. IOWA STATE: The Cyclones enjoyed their first double-digit win season in program history with their 11-3 mark last year that culminated in a 42-41 victory against Miami (FL), albeit against a Hurricanes team opting to not play future first-round draft pick quarterback Cam Ward in the second half of that game. Twelve starters return from that group, headlined by junior quarterback Rocco Becht, who passed for 3505 yards with 25 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. But his 59.4% completion percentage is of concern, as well as the 18 interceptions in his career, including seven that were returned for touchdowns. That offense loses wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins in Day Two of the NFL draft — and the offensive line lost two to the NFL in the offseason. The defense has six starters back from a group that defensive coordinator Jon Heacock used 21 different starters for the season. Iowa State suffered through losing 12 of 13 games by one scoring possession from the middle of 2021 through early 2023 before now winning seven of their last nine games decided by eight points or less. Head coach Matt Campbell probably wants to credit this turnaround to more difficult spring practice sessions, where he emphasized putting his players into situations of adversity. Perhaps that has made a difference, or perhaps this is the simple regression to the norm of outlier statistics. KANSAS: The Jayhawks were snakebit last season. They had to play their home games away from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium due to renovations. They lost five of their first seven games, with four of those losses by six points or less. Kansas then won three games in a row before settling with a 5-7 record with five losses by one scoring possession. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was able to stay healthy all season, but his 14:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio was disappointing. He did play better in the second half of the season. Only six starters are back this season — and the team said goodbye to 38 seniors on last year’s roster. But fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold continues to win in the transfer portal. Kansas has lost the fewest scholarship players in the portal in the last two seasons of all Power Four conference programs. He added a bunch of transfers on both sides of the ball in a mix of former Power Four conference players as well as stars from the FCS, ready for the upgrade in competition. The offensive and defensive coordinators are both new this season — so establishing chemistry and cohesion will be a question. But this remains a veteran group with potentially 16 projected starters being seniors or redshirt seniors. Daniels remains an intriguing dual-threat at quarterback in his sixth season with the program. If he rekindles his magic from the 2022 season, the Jayhawks could become very intriguing. Getting to play their home games back at Memorial Stadium this year can only help. KANSAS STATE: Former Wildcats’ quarterback Will Howard may have won a national championship for Ohio State last season, but he was likely going to be benched if he stayed for his final collegiate season in Manhattan. Avery Johnson was ranked as the number three dual-threat quarterback coming out of high school. His athleticism pushes his ceiling of potential very high. He has a good arm and is speedy with his legs. Johnson threw for 2712 passing yards, added 605 rushing yards, and accounted for 32 overall touchdowns. But the junior needs to improve as a passer this season. He completed only 58% of his passes and threw 10 interceptions. Too often, it was feast or famine for the offense. In their nine victories, Kansas State scored 37.6 Points-Per-Game — but in their four losses, they managed only 15.8 PPG. Former Utah State and Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells takes over as the offensive coordinator after sharing those duties last year. As the team’s passing game coordinator, he is expected to open up the passing game a bit more. The offensive line should remain one of the strengths of this team under head coach Chris Kleinman in his seventh year with the program. He brought in four transfers from Power Four conferences to join two returning starters from last season. The other side of the ball is the bigger question mark overall, with only five starters back. The Wildcats must replace two defensive backs, Jacob Parrish and Marques Sigle, who got drafted into the NFL — and they also lost their sack leader, Brendan Mott. But four of the six players who registered at least six sacks last year are back, and the secondary too often got burned last year. MIAMI (FL): As some things change with the Hurricanes, other things frustratingly remain the same under head coach Mario Cristobal. In his fourth year with the program, he is doing a good job bringing talent into the program from both recruiting high school players and being aggressive in the transfer portal. But blown leads and game management remain significant problems. Two years ago, in their 7-6 campaign, in their four losses decided by seven points, the Miami (FL) blew a second-half lead in each contest. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech that season was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. The Hurricanes opened up last season by going 9-0. Then Miami lost on the road against Georgia Tech. At 10-1 and a berth in the ACC championship game on the line, they blew a 21-point lead at Syracuse in an upset loss that cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. Cristobal made another controversial decision with under four minutes left in the game, trailing by seven points, to take the ball out of quarterback Cam Ward’s hand and settle for a field goal on fourth down at the 10-yard line. While the odds of success in executing a fourth-and-10 are not high, were they much worse than the chances of the Miami defense stopping the Orange’s offense, which had scored touchdowns on four of their previous five possessions to take the lead? Besides, failing on fourth down requires the defense to step up as much as cutting the deficit to four points with the field goal, albeit with Syracuse pinned back deep on their side of the field. The Hurricanes then blew another lead in a 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl (although Ward did not play in the second half of that game). Ward is gone to the NFL after leading a Miami offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense. Cristobal looked to the transfer portal as well to bring in Georgia quarterback Carson Beck for his final season. Beck bypassed the NFL to take what has been reported as a $4.2 million NIL deal — but he was not getting drafted before Day Three, so he is making more money this year by staying in school. South Beach was an attractive choice because his girlfriend played basketball for the Hurricanes —but the rumors are that the couple has since split up. Beck is also coming off elbow surgery on his throwing hand. With all this static, it is not given that he is a simple plug-and-play replacement for Ward. Decision-making was an issue last year as he threw 12 interceptions for Georgia. The wide receiver room lost their top five targets last season — it is a vastly more inexperienced room than the one Ward enjoyed. The defense continued to struggle against good teams as they surrendered 31 or more points six times. Cristobal turned to Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to run his defense after the Golden Gophers ranked fifth in the nation in total defense — but he is their third DC in four years. Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Cristobal added nine more players in the transfer portal, including five in the defensive secondary. Miami finally won 10 games under Cristobal -- but with big questions at wide receiver and the secondary, the likely downgrade at the quarterback position after Ward's spectacular season, and the proclivity to find ways to blow leads, it is difficult to expect an improvement on last year's results. MICHIGAN STATE: Second-year head coach Jonathan Smith inherited a proud program that had hit rock bottom. Previous head coach Mel Tucker was fired after four seasons, amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished the 2023 season with a 4-8 record, while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that the 11-2 season in 2021, which led to Tucker getting a ten-year, $95 million contract, was the team’s only winning season in the previous five years and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. After Tucker got dismissed, 12 players entered the transfer portal in April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Tucker lived and died relying on the portal. But the problems Smith inherited go farther back than that. The “more with less” dogma of previous head coach Mark Dantonio grew stale less than a decade ago, with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to developing elite talent -- particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense. Furthermore, Dantonio’s defenses took a step back from their peak seasons. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time. Smith is committed to patiently doing things the right way, as he previously did in building Oregon State into a contender. The Spartans did not get to a bowl game, but the quality of play was better in a 5-7 season. There are reasons for optimism. Despite the secondary losing nine players on the depth chart at one point — including three starters — the defense ranked 34th in the nation by giving up 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They held their opponents to -29 YPG below their season average. The unit ranked 32nd in run defense by giving up 125.1 rushing YPG. Those are Sparty’s best defensive numbers since 2019 — and with the excellent Joe Rossi as defensive coordinator, the defense should continue to improve. Five starters are back — and Smith was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding four outside linebackers and four cornerbacks. The offense needs to take a step (or two) forward after only scoring 19.3 PPG and generating 333.4 total YPG, ranking tied 123rd and 110th in the nation. In losing four of their last five games, they failed to score more than 17 points in four of those games. Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles was inconsistent in his first year as a starter. The former Oregon State transfer only completed 56% of his passes in his first five games, with five touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He did improve in the final seven games by completing 61% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and only three interceptions. But six of his interceptions occurred in close games when their win probability at the time was in the 30-70% range. The offensive line continues to be the weak link. Michigan State allowed 34 sacks last year — and Chiles was sacked two or more times in ten of his starts. They ranked 110th in the nation by only generating 115.3 rushing YPG. As Smith tries to develop home-grown talent, he was aggressive in bringing in transfers to bolster that unit. Better play from that unit will help Chiles — and with their defense, the Spartans could start becoming a bit dangerous. But perhaps that formula for success may really be another year away. MINNESOTA: In my deep dive of the Golden Gophers last year, I argued that the floor of this program under head coach P.J. Fleck to be pretty high — and if sixth-year transfer Max Bosmer would offer a significant upgrade at quarterback from the previous season and and the defense improves from last year’s “floor,” the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous out. Both of those boxes got checked. Minnesota’s defense was outstanding by holding their opponents to just 285.7 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in only 16.9 Points-Per-Game, ranking fifth and ninth best in the nation. Bosmer was solid under center as he led an offense that scored 26.2 PPG, which was a +6.2 PPG improvement from the 2023 season. And they were certainly a dangerous out. They only lost to Penn State by one point. They lost in the Big House against Michigan by a field goal. The Golden Gophers swept their two games against USC and UCLA, the two newcomers in the conference from Los Angeles. They won their eighth straight bowl game in a 24-10 victory against Virginia Tech in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Fleck returns ten starters from that team. While the offense improved last year, they still ranked 107th by generating only 337.3 total YPG. Brosmer used up his final year of eligibility — and the wide receiver room must replace Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer, who accounted for more than 50% of the receiving production. This unit needs more playmakers — and Fleck was aggressive in the transfer portal to target good fits for the program. He thinks he has a special player in redshirt sophomore quarterback Drake Lindsey, who spent last year mentoring under Brosmer. The defense returns 10 of the 17 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. Defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman moved on to Miami (FL) in the offseason, but Fleck tapped Danny Collins to run the defense, having been on his staff here for all nine seasons since 2017. Fleck has had four top ten defenses in terms of total yardage in his tenure at Minnesota, with two different coordinators overseeing that production. The Golden Gophers are just one of nine college programs to get a defensive player drafted in the first or second round for six straight years. He added transfers on all three levels of that unit in the offseason to complement the returning talent. The ceiling for this program is not as high as several of their Big Ten opponents because Fleck is simply not able to recruit with those national powers at Minnesota — but he is not staying complacent about improving the talent base on the roster. His teams consistently overachieve expectations and will likely remain very dangerous. NEBRASKA: The Cornhuskers finally got over the hump by becoming bowl eligible in a late November victory against Wisconsin — and after their 20-15 victory against Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl, they secured their first winning season in nine years and their first bowl win since the Obama Administration in 2016. Now comes the high expectations of the third-year Matt Rhule bounce after he led both Temple and then Baylor to the conference championship games with 10-4 and 11-3 campaigns in his third as the head coach at the programs. Finally getting the benefit of bowl practices will help — but the challenge to reach the Big Ten championship game is much steeper. The defense is a complete rebuild in the front seven with the only returning starters being in the secondary — and that unit lost defensive coordinator Tony White and their defensive line coach to Florida State, where they will have the same responsibilities. Rhule promoted defensive backs coach John Butler to run the defense — he had nine years of NFL coaching experience after running the Penn State defense in 2013. After ranking in the top 18 in total defense the last two seasons, this unit may take a step back. On the other hand, this group was not as physical and aggressive last year as they were in 2023 — and Butler had the defense getting back some of their aggression in spring practice. The offense returns offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen for his first full season after he took over for the fired Marcus Satterfield after the ninth game. The former Houston and West Virginia head coach immediately corrected the lack of effort in blocking from the wide receivers. He also drew up more quick passes with shorter routes to put freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in a better position to succeed. The former five-star recruit was inconsistent last year and too often missed big throws — but he did show flashes of an elite arm. In his final three games under Holgorsen, he completed 72% of his passes and averaged 236 passing Yards-Per-Game. He took fewer sacks in those last three games while only adding one interception to his season total of 11. But the Cornhuskers scored more than 21 points only once in the four games when Holgorsen called plays. Rhule was more aggressive in the transfer portal by adding 18 players, which was ten more than the previous offseason. But this remains an offense that scored only 23.5 Points-Per-Game and generated 359.0 total Yards-Per-Game, ranking 103rd and 94th in the nation. There still may not be enough firepower at the skill positions to compete with the top-end teams in the loaded Big Ten. Is it telling that Nebraska lost four of their last six games? NORTH CAROLINA: I have little doubt that if Bill Belichick wanted to develop an elite college football program at the University of North Carolina, he could do it. As the son of two parents who were college professors, he is a football lifer who considers himself first and foremost a teacher. He has forgotten more about teaching (and football) than these loudmouth critics in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex have ever known about this or any other subject. But how serious is he about the responsibility of this job? I initially thought this was an easy answer. But I conducted this deep-dive in mid-July, just after Belichick felt the need to rebut on ESPN mostly innocent comments made by New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Maybe the year off from coaching last year changed the priorities of this 72-year-old in the twilight of his life with nothing to prove regarding coaching? He became a media star on multiple platforms. He has a 24-year-old girlfriend. He has empowered her to become his social media agent. All the drama … it is definitely not the “Patriots way” blueprint. And the “No Days Off” mantra may still apply — just not for football. I’m sure when it is time to work on football, he is putting in 100% effort. But is the fire in the belly still there? Because if the idea was to go from NFL star to media star, one probably could not find a better group of marks than the administration at North Carolina. They gave the bag to Mack Brown at 68 years old to leave his cushy job occasionally talking about football on ESPN to return as their head coach six years ago. Brown was able to sell his “CEO” style for six years of utter mediocrity, where the Tar Heels always qualified for a bowl game, yet never won more than nine games. This football team has not enjoyed a ten-win season since 2015. If a cynic wanted to argue that, at 73-years-old, Belichick is content to simply get paid and go through the motions now while promoting his Q rating, the evidence supporting this is growing. His new coaching staff remains a blend of nepotism or “Yes Men” (best exemplified by former Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who Belichick promoted to be his offensive coordinator even though Brown did not ever elevate him higher than the tight ends coach and run game coordinator). More red flags continue to emerge. The high school recruiting front has been meager, despite new general manager Michael Lombardo boasting about their establishment of an advanced pro-level scouting program that implements NIL better than their peers. And then perhaps the biggest tell: nearly two dozen players left the program after spring practice. Maybe old school tactics like not assigning jersey numbers until the player “earned it” was simply following the advice of his parents, who knew that it is much easier to loosen restrictions as a teacher than attempt to get stricter after initial expectations are established. But the defense lost two of their best defensive players with defensive end Beau Atkinson and linebacker Amare Campbell transferring to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively, who were both very happy to assign these players a jersey with a number. Perhaps that is the inevitable attrition still playing out in establishing a winning culture. It certainly was not there under Brown. Belichick knows defense and can teach it. They have been very active in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball. Belichick added eight new transfers on the offensive line that are big with lots of starting experience (and two All-Conference awardees). Belichick brought in an intriguing talent at quarterback after spring practice with Gio Lopez from South Alabama. The sophomore dual-threat QB passes for 2559 yards and rushed for 547 non-sack rushing yards while accounting for 25 touchdowns. But the skill position players on offense are mostly unproven in a bad look that looks suspiciously like his final teams with the Patriots. Many things have to go right to immediately build a winning team from the transfer portal. Chemistry, cohesion, culture — these are never guaranteed, even if the head coach is a future NFL Hall of Famer. Maybe Belichick already knows that — and his girlfriend has the perfect meme to post about it? NORTH CAROLINA STATE: The Wolfpack were a trendy pick to reach the ACC Championship Game after posting a 9-4 record in 2024 — but there were reasons for that optimism to remain cautious. Expectations perhaps should have been tempered when considering that they enjoyed +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession — and they sported a +4 net upset margin. They also benefited from a +9 net turnover margin fueled by 17 interceptions. Their defense returned five starters but they must replace linebacker Payton Wilson who moved on to the NFL. Much of the optimism came from bringing in senior quarterback Grayson McCall after winning three straight Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year awards with Coastal Carolina. But McCall’s season was cut short due to concussions and North Carolina State would endure their first losing season in five years with a 6-7 mark after a 26-21 loss to East Carolina in the Military Bowl. It was just the third losing campaign in head coach Dave Doeren’s 12 years running the program. Now expectations are lowered again — and that may be just where Doeren likes it. He is replacing both coordinators after firing offensive coordinator Robert Anae after two seasons and losing defensive coordinator Tony Gibson who took the head coaching job at Marshall. The loss of Gibson after six seasons will sting. Veteran defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot was tapped to take over a unit that lost five of their top six tacklers and 10 of their 16 players who logged in 200 or more snaps. Veteran offensive coordinator Kurt Roper takes over the offense with six starters returning headlined by sophomore quarterback C.J. Bailey who passed for 2413 yards with 17 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions in nine games. The offensive line remains a significant concern with two starters back from a unit that ranked 116th in Stuff Rate and 74th in Sack Rate Allowed. RUTGERS: The Scarlet Knights won their first four games last season before injuries on defense contributed to them losing their next four contests. They then rallied to become bowl eligible with three wins in their last four regular season games before blowing a big lead in a 44-41 loss to Kansas State in the Rate Bowl. The good news is that team had its best offense in the five seasons since Greg Schiano returned for his second stint as their head coach. Rutgers ranked tied for 55th in the nation by scoring 28.9 Points-Per-Game, which was a +5.7 net PPG increase over the previous season. Eight starters are back from that group including senior quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The “Greek Rifle” passed for 2696 yards with 18 touchdown passes. He looks poised to take another step forward in another season under offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca’s scheme. There is talent in the wide receiver room and the offensive line is experienced with four returning starters and several transfers coming in. It was the other side of the ball that was a disappointment. The Scarlet Knights lost three games despite scoring 31 or more points. They surrendered 31.4 PPG in their final eight contests. They had eight starters back last year from the unit that ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Now Schiano has only two returning starters on defense — but he was very active in bringing in talent in the portal including defensive ends Eric O’Neill from James Madison and Bradley Weaver from Bowling Green who were probably the best defensive players in the Sun Belt and Mid-American Conferences respectively. Schiano is a very good defensive coach who should get that side of the ball straightened out. He brought back Robb Smith to be the defensive coordinator in what is now their stint together with the program. This is Schiano’s 17th year as the Rutgers head coach. After his haitus to the NFL as a head coach and a stint as the defensive coordinator at Ohio State, Schiano is in the sixth-year of his second run with the program. The Scarlet Knights have had eight winning seasons in the last 12 years with him as head coach. In contrast, the football team has just two winning seasons in the last 16 years with any other head coach. The roster appears to be the most talented since Schiano returned — but getting all the transfer players on the same page with the established culture is easier said than done. SAN JOSE STATE: First-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo did a fantastic job last replacing seven-year head coach Brent Brennan who took the head coaching job at Arizona. The Spartans had lost 12 starters to graduation and then another six starters in the transfer portal. The former 15-year head coach at Navy proved he had more than one trick up his sleeve by abandoning the spread triple option rushing attack for a quick-passing Run-and-Shoot and Air Raid hybrid scheme. He found the right offensive coordinator in Chris Stutzmann who had been the passing game coordinator at Texas State. San Jose State generated 321.8 passing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth in the FBS. This passing attack really took off when Walker Eget took over under center in the sixth game. The senior returns at quarterback with four other starters on offense having averaged 301 passing yards YPG in his seven starts. The defense returns 14 of the 22 players who got at least one start last season including seven players who had seven or more starts. But while much more experience returns, the Spartans arguably have less talent with perhaps their best five players from last year either going to the NFL, graduating, or transferring. Wide receiver Nick Nash headlines that list after finishing second in the nation with 104 receptions and 1382 receiving yards — and his 16 touchdown catches led the FBS. It will be difficult to replace that kind of elite talent. However, after finishing 7-6 last year after a heartbreaking 41-39 loss to South Florida in five overtimes in the Hawai’i Bowl, San Jose State has registered seven-win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time since 1980-1982. Niumatalolo and this coaching staff deserve some benefit of the doubt that they can coach this group up.SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: After a 1-11 season, the Golden Eagles have invested in a fascinating experiment in this modern age of the transfer portal. Charles Huff won the Sun Belt Conference as the head coach at Marshall last year — and did a proverbial Blues Brothers by proclaiming “We’re getting the band back together,” we are just going to do it at Southern Mississippi this year after his rift with the Thundering Herd administration. Over 80 players are gone either from graduation or the transfer portal from last year’s Southern Mississippi football team. But Huff has brought in at least 50 new players in the transfer portal even before the freshman class and junior college transfers — including more than 25 players from his Marshall team last season. Can a college football team simply relocate and roll? We are going to find out. Senior quarterback Braylon Braxton who was 8-0 as a starter last season headlines the transfer class from Marshall. He brings size, mobility, and arm talent. Five of his top seven targets in the passing game also came over in the portal. Huff also brought in several Power Four conference transfers seemingly with the attitude that his name value along with the Southern Miss brand would overwhelm his previous branding exercise with Marshall. It will be fascinating to see if traditional concerns about cohesion and chemistry can be overcome in this experiment since 12 previous FBS starters are on the roster with many of them playing together when they won the title for the Thundering Herd last season. STANFORD: It was the fourth straight 3-9 season for the Cardinal that has endured a steady decline since the peak of the David Shaw era. Second-year head coach Troy Taylor was taking the patient long-term approach by focusing on recruiting. But when Stanford hired former legendary quarterback Andrew Luck to be their general manager and then allegations were made public about Taylor’s mistreatment of female employees, Taylor was relieved of his duties. Luck called in a favor to his former head coach with the Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich, to serve as the interim head coach this season to help professionalize the program as they adapt their unique academic institution to the realities of college football in 2025. Surely Luck hopes Reich falls in love with college football after being burned by his experiences as a head coach with the Colts and the Carolina Panthers. A West Coast program playing in the ACC is not the easiest of terrains — the Cardinal will travel over 26,000 miles this season. Bringing in transfers remains a struggle given the academic standards at Stanford — but they are trying. Reich has 14 returning starters back — and 15 of the 20 players who logged in 150 or more snaps on defense are back. But the Cardinal ranked outside the top 100 in scoring offense and defense and total offense and defense. Given their inherent admission restraints, finding the formula to make this team as competitive as they were under Jim Harbaugh and then the early years under Shaw will remain a significant challenge. Reich could be the right person for the challenge. SYRACUSE: Second-year head coach Fran Brown appears to be a rising star in the college football coaching ranks after leading the Orange to a 10-3 record and a 52-35 victory against Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. But expected another double-digit win season this year may be a tall task against a much harder schedule. Syracuse only beat three teams that ranked in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s final SP+ top 40 rankings. Two of their three losses looked bad — a 28-point loss against Pittsburgh and a loss at home against Stanford. They enjoyed an unsustainable 7-2 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. They also posted +4 net upset victories on the year. Only five starters are back from that team — and there are some red flags when looking under the hood. Kudos to Brown for taking advantage of Ohio State perhaps giving up too early on senior quarterback Kyle McCord. He led the nation in passing in his one year with Syracuse before moving on to the NFL. But the Orange struggled to run the ball as they ranked just 125th in the nation by averaging 97.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game despite having LeQuint Allen who was a two-time All-ACC running back who got drafted into the NFL in the spring. Sophomore Rickie Collins is expected to be the starting quarterback this year after transferring from LSU — but after playing only four games as a backup last season, he lacks the experience McCord had. The offensive line returned only one starter — and while Brown brought in five transfers from Power Four conference programs, cohesion will remain a question. The defensive lost seven of their top ten tacklers from last season — and they are replacing defensive end Fadil Diggs who got drafted into the NFL along with defensive tackle Maraad Watson who was a freshman All-American who transferred to Texas. Brown has been crafty using the transfer portal — but he seems to realize the foundation for long-term success is improving the program’s high school recruiting and retention. TOLEDO: The Rockets won their first three games of the season last year before dropping five of their final nine contests including a pair of bad upset losses against Buffalo and Akron. But Toledo also registered two victories against Power-Four conference opponents including a dominant 41-17 victory at Mississippi State and a 48-46 win against Pittsburgh in six overtimes in the Game Above Sports Bowl. The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent in the nine years under head coach Jason Candle. On the one hand, Candle usually has the most talented team in the Mid-American Conference. But Toledo has only won two MAC champions in his tenure with too many upset losses getting in the way. Last year’s team was held back by a rushing attack that ranked 108th in the nation by generating only 115.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 124th in Rush Success Rate. The Rockets failed to score more than 15 points four times last year — and they lost all four games. Candle addressed this deficiency in the transfer portal by bringing in sixth-year senior Chip Trayanum from Kentucky who began his injury-riddled college career as a recruit at Ohio State. Candle also added four offense linemen in the transfer portal including two Power-Four conference players to join three returning starters. Senior quarterback Tucker Gleason is back under center this season — and first-team All-MAC wide receiver joins him again after he caught 95 passes for 957 receiving yards. The defense sees all five starters from the secondary back again — but Candle lost the front six starters from last season. Overall, Candle brought in 15 transfers to upgrade the talent on the roster and once again enjoyed the top incoming high school recruiting class in the conference. On paper. Toledo has the talent to win their third MAC title under Candle’s leadership. But that has been the case for most of his tenure. TULANE: The Green Wave comes off a 9-5 season that ended on a sour note with three straight losses which included a 35-14 loss at Army in the American Athletic Conference championship game before ending the season with a 33-8 loss against Florida in the Gasparalla Bowl. Despite that slide, this remains a program that has won 32 combined games in the last three seasons while reaching the conference championship game all three years. This is a remarkable achievement for Tulane who averaged only 4.2 wins a year from 1999 to 2021. Former Troy head coach Jon Sumrall kept going last year from where previous head coach Willie Fritz left off -- and Power Four conference teams are on notice because the roster was raided in the offseason. But Sumrall is fighting back by being very aggressive in the transfer portal bringing back talent. He has added at least 20 players with starting experience at the FBS level — and the result is a de-facto all-star team from mid-major FBS and lower-tiered football programs. The Green Wave have only five starters back — the total number of cumulative starts from the returning players is 72. The transfer players have 114 additional combined starts. On paper, the talent on the roster should put them in a position to compete once again for the conference title — but so many new faces make the chemistry and cohesion of this group a question mark. But perhaps the bigger question is at quarterback after the team lost Darian Mensah in the portal to Duke. Sumrall brought in two FBS quarterbacks in the portal to compete for the job but felt the need to add Brendan Sullivan from Iowa after spring practice. It is not a good sign when the results from spring practice compel one to turn to Iowa for answers at quarterback. And it is not a good sign either when one only gets two starts under center for the Hawkeyes as Sullivan did last season. The former Northwestern recruit is a dual-threat with a career completion percentage of 69.4% in his 1778 passing yards — and he has 13 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions in his career. Yet those solid numbers have not been enough for him to get more playing time at Iowa last year despite their anemic offense. VIRGINIA TECH: There was excitement with this program when quarterback Kyron Drones took over midway through the 2023 season — but the Mountaineers only finished 6-7 last year after losing in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 24-10 score to Minnesota. Drones played through a leg injury — so the hope is his return will rejuvenate the offense that lost running back Bhayshul Tuten to the NFL and their top four wide receivers. On the plus side, head coach Brent Pry brought in former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery, who once upon a time guided Robert Griffin III to great success at Baylor. The defense also sees their third defensive coordinator in the last six years since Bud Foster retired, with Pry turning to Sam Siefkes, who has been an assistant defensive coach in the NFL since 2021, most recently a linebackers coach for Arizona. Some can point to their four losses when winning or tied with two minutes left to go, that this team deserved more. They had -5 net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession — and they suffered -4 net upset losses. But only four starters return from last season before banking on transfers — and there are new coordinators on both sides of the ball. VIRGINIA: My biggest question for the Cavaliers in the offseason last year was whether or not the glass was half-empty or half full after a 3-9 season that could be blamed on injuries, mostly on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage. After a 5-7 campaign where they ranked 101st in the nation by surrendering 408.3 total Yards-Per-Game, the “our 1400 snaps from freshman on defense plus our returning injured starters set us up for a significant improvement” line is hollow. Now head coach Tony Elliott is all-in on the transfer portal with a roster loaded with players in their final year of eligibility. It’s a surrender on relying on his high school recruiting — and it does not say much about his player development. It’s as if Dabo Swinney, Brent Venables, and Elliot all decided they should be undefeated forever because they won a college football national championship — and they have all been cocky and defiant since (without much success since). The knock on Virginia is that they are sloppy on both sides of the ball, lack discipline, and lack an identity under Elliott. The failures with recruiting have resulted in relying on the transfer portal. Elliott brought in more than 30 transfers — including more than ten after his spring practice. The two quarterbacks he was nurturing as an offensive head coach transferred after last year. And while their 5 wins last year seem to be an improvement, they were winless in their six games against opponents that ranked in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 50 SP+ rankings with an average losing margin of -19 Points-Per-Game. Elliott made a show of blaming his assistant coaches during his first season. These moves now look like the last acts of a desperate man, knowing the writing is on the wall. WAKE FOREST: Whether it was the lack of NIL money or that Dave Clawson’s approach was outdated for the ever-evolving college football landscape, he resigned after his 11th season with the program that saw a second-straight 4-8 campaign. Perhaps the writing was on the wall after the Demon Deacons lost 20 of their last 30 games under his leadership. In comes Jake Dickert who demonstrated he could do more with less by posting a 20-18 record with Washington State as their head coach amidst the chaos of the Pac-12 crumbling and that program failing to find a new conference home. Only six starters return for Wake Forest from last year’s team — but the administration committed to a more ambitious NIL program and Dickert brought in a top 25 transfer class consisting of players who had a combined 102 starts last year. The Demon Deacons had made seven straight bowl games before the last two losing seasons — but they have enjoyed just two winning seasons in ACC play in the last 17 years. Dickert along with defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton (previously at Michigan State from 2020-23 as their DC) have good track records, but the overall talent level in Winston-Salem right now is a significant question. WISCONSIN: Another year, another round of excuses for head coach Luke Fickell after two seasons. The bad injury luck came when his next hotshot transfer quarterback got lost early to a season-ending injury. The schedule was brutal! The offensive coordinator was not getting it done, so he got fired after Week 11. But the schedule is not getting any easier any time soon. Perhaps Fickell started reading his own headlines after taking Cincinnati to the college football playoff four years ago. Perhaps he thinks anything he touches will turn to gold. Is that why he thought modernizing the Badgers' offense by hiring Phil Longo to install an up-tempo spread passing attack would work out, despite most observers thinking that abandoning the smash-mouth possession-focused rushing attack (which helps the defense) was not the best idea, especially when playing in Madison or other cold-weather Big Ten towns in November? Longo was far from the first assistant coach Fickell fired already in his time at Wisconsin — but who is hiring these bums? Perhaps Fickell should be commended for being ambitious — and then having the courage to cut bait and not double-down on the sunk cost fallacy. He brought in Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards to start under center — and he might be the most talented QB in his tenure. But it is the third straight year that the starting quarterback is a transfer. Fickell has been very aggressive in the transfer portal — but the development of high school recruits choosing to play and stay in the program has declined. No unit demonstrates this slide in talent on the field than at offensive line — but that tends to happen when a program abandons their identity. And then there is the decline of the defense. The Badgers ranked 47th and 41st by surrendering 23.1 Points-Per-Game and 342.7 total Yards-Per-Game. While those are not bad numbers, their SP+ defensive ranking of 22nd using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s metrics is the program’s lowest rating since 14 seasons. Their run defense collapsed with opponents generating 165.0 rushing YPG, which ranked 91st — and they ranked 102nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They only register 17 sacks, their lowest since 1983. They forced only 12 turnovers. Trying to replace their legendary long term defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was always going to be a challenge — but Mike Tressel did not suddenly forget how to coach defense. Tressel had been with Fickell for four straight seasons, including the Bearcats’ semifinal run in the playoffs. After a 5-2 start, Wisconsin lost their final five games last year. They missed their first bowl game in 22 seasons. They are 12-13 under Fickell. The offense is returning to a run-first philosophy with a slower tempo under new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, who has had great success in previous stints at Kansas, Baylor, and BYU. But the talent level on the roster seems to have dropped — and becoming dependent on the transfer portal can become a vicious cycle with limited long-term upside. Best of luck -- Frank.
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