The group stage of the Leagues Cup has concluded and the competition is down to the final 8 teams. There have only been 5 editions of this competition since its inception and Mexican clubs won the first 2 trophies, but the last 3 years of the competition has been dominated by MLS clubs with all 3 years seeing an all-MLS Final as well. Now with the start of the Quarter-Finals set for Tuesday, August 25, it is time to see who has the best chance at lifting the trophy this season.
To Win Outright
Columbus Crew +450: Columbus is coming into the knockouts as the team with the best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 3rd place of the MLS group with 8 points after winning 2 of their matches and winning the other in penalties after a 1-1 draw. Their attack was very good with 6 goals scored in their 3 matches, but their defense did concede a goal in each of their matches. They also had the luxury of playing all 3 of their group stage matches at home, but now they will be on the West coast for their match against Club America. Columbus is currently the favorite of the competition, but this is not the same team that has dominated the MLS over the last few years. They have struggled a lot in the MLS this season, currently sitting in 11th place of the Eastern Conference at 5-5-9 and they are 24th in the overall table out of 30 teams. They do have experience in this competition as they won it 2 years ago, but they did not get back to the Final last season and they are going to struggle more now that they are not playing at home. They are 1-3-6 away from home this season and that is going to be a big factor as Club America is going to have a lot of fans in the Quarter-Final. Club America is also one of the better teams in all of Mexico and they have had a great start to their new season, so they are going to be a very tough team for Columbus to get through. There is no real value in Columbus at this price as the favorite considering the season that they have had in the MLS and the quality of opponent that they have to face in their next match. Columbus is not a true contender to win this competition.
Club America +500: Club America is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 2nd place of the Liga MX group with 7 points after winning 2 of their matches and losing the other in penalties after a 1-1 draw. Their attack has been great in this competition with 7 goals scored in their 3 matches, but they have also conceded a goal in each match as well. They are one of the better teams in Mexico though and they have had a great start to their new season in Liga MX. Their defense has been great to start the season and their attack has been ramping up recently as well. Club America has never been to the Final in this competition, but they have the quality to win it all as they are one of the better teams left in this tournament. They have also played just 1 home match in this competition, so they have already proven themselves with dominant performances in these away matches and now they are going to have a more friendly environment for this match against Columbus. Columbus was great in the group stage, but they got to play at home in all 3 matches and they have struggled a lot in the MLS this season, so they should not pose too much of a threat to a team like Club America that has a lot more quality, especially on defense. Club America is going to be a threat to win this competition and should probably be the favorite with the quality they have and the form they have been in recently. There is some good value in Club America at +500.
Real Salt Lake +600: Real Salt Lake is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 4th place of the MLS group with 7 points after winning 2 of their matches and losing the other in penalties after a 1-1 draw. They had a slow start to the group with that 1-1 draw before winning their next 2 matches by a combined score of 7-0, but Real Salt Lake also looks to be a bit of a paper tiger here. They had the luxury of playing all 3 of their matches in the group stage at home and they are not going to be at home for this next match. They also had a very weak schedule in the group stage as their 2 wins came against some of the weakest teams in Mexico, Beating Juarez and the newly promoted club Atlante, and even their loss in penalties came against Tigres UANL who is supposed to be good but has been in awful form recently. They have been good in the MLS this season as they are currently sitting in 6th place in the Western Conference at 8-4-6 and they are 11th place in the overall table, but they have also been night and day this season home and away. They have been one of the more dominant teams at home in the MLS, but they have also been one of the worst away teams at 1-3-5. Their defense has been much worse as well and that is going to be a problem in their 1st match of the knockouts against a Leon side that was perfect in the group stage. Real Salt Lake was propped up in the group stage by their home advantage and weaker schedule, but reality is going to strike in the knockouts as they are not a true contender. There is no real value in Real Salt Lake at +600.
Toluca +600: Toluca is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 3rd place of the Liga MX group with 6 points after winning 2 of their matches and losing the other. Their attack has been great with 6 goals scored in their 3 matches and their defense has also been very good, allowing just 2 goals in their 3 matches. They were dominant in their 2 wins in the group stage against Dallas and Seattle, but they also had the luxury of playing both of those matches at home. The only away match that they had to play in the group stage was a 1-0 loss to LAFC and this Toluca team has struggled in recent away matches going back to last season. They are certainly one of the better teams in Mexico with the quality that they have and they are going to have a favorable matchup in their 1st match against Austin. Toluca has also been very inconsistent though, specifically away from home, so they are likely going to lean on their defense more as their attack will struggle to score. Toluca does have some value at this price as one of the better teams in Mexico and they should be able to get through this 1st round as well, but they are not the best option to go with in this tournament nor are they the best option to go with from Mexico. It would not be shocking to see them win it all, but there are still better options considering how Toluca could have been propped up by their 2 home matches in the group stage. There is some value in Toluca at +600, but there are still better options.
Leon +650: Leon is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished at the top of the Liga MX group with 9 points after going a perfect 3-0-0 in the group stage. Their attack was very good with 6 goals scored in their 3 matches, but their defense was not great as they conceded goals in 2 of their 3 matches and still allowed 3 goals total. They did not have an easy schedule in the group stage by any means with wins coming against Inter Miami, Nashville, and Orlando, but they have certainly had their own struggles in Liga MX. They have struggled to start the new season of Liga MX and they are coming off of a season in which they did not make the playoffs. They did not have the luxury of playing any of their matches at home though, so they were very impressive to beat 3 quality opponents away from home and they are clearly focused on winning this competition which will make them a dangerous team. They also have an easier opponent in the next round with Real Salt Lake and they have experience in this competition as they are the last Mexican club to win the Leagues Cup. Leon is a bit of a wild card here as they have struggled in their own domestic league but have shown an interest in this competition and have the quality to make a run. They are still not the best option to go with, but they are on the weaker side of the bracket and it would not be shocking to see them end up in the Final. There is some value in Leon at +650.
Chicago Fire +650: Chicago is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished at the top of the MLS group with 9 points after going a perfect 3-0-0 in the group stage. Their attack was great with 7 goals scored in their 3 matches and their defense has been even better with 2 goals allowed in their 3 matches. They did have the luxury of playing all 3 matches at home, but they have been in great form recently as one of the better teams in the MLS this season and they also get the luxury of playing their next match in this competition at home as well. They did play against 2 of the weaker teams in Mexico, beating Necaxa and Santos by 2+ goals, but they still needed a win in that final match of the group stage and they beat Cruz Azul 2-1 who is one of the better if not the best team in Mexico. Chicago has been having a great season in the MLS though, currently sitting in 4th place of the Eastern Conference at 9-2-6 and they are 8th place in the overall table. It helps that their next match is also at home, but they have been a balanced team all season and they also made some big moves to improve in the summer transfer window. Chicago is by far the best MLS team left in this competition and they are going to be a threat to go all the way. They also have a great defense which will carry them deep into this competition. There is a lot of value in Chicago at +650 as the best MLS team left in this competition.
Austin +900: Austin is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 2nd place of the MLS group with 8 points after winning 2 of their matches and winning the other in penalties after a 1-1 draw. They picked up a great result against Club America who is certainly one of the better teams in Mexico, but their other 2 opponents in the group stage were not very strong. They beat up on a mediocre Tijuana side and Puebla who is one of the worst in Liga MX. Austin had a great attack in the group stage with 6 goals scored and their defense was also great with 1 goal allowed in their 3 matches, but they also had the luxury of playing all 3 of their matches at home and that will not be the case in their next match. They have struggled a lot in the MLS this season as well, currently sitting in 14th place of the Western Conference at 4-5-9 and they are 27th in the overall table. They also have the single worst away record of all 30 teams in the MLS at 0-3-7, allowing 29 goals in their 10 away matches. Austin has been good in this competition, but that is not going to hold up with the quality of opponents they are going to face the rest of the way. There is no real value in Austin at +900 as they are not a true contender to win it all.
Monterrey +900: Monterrey is coming into the knockouts as the team with the next best chance at winning it all this year, according to the oddsmakers. They finished in 4th place of the Liga MX group with 6 points after winning 2 of their matches and losing the other. They played against 3 quality opponents as they lost to Orlando, beat Inter Miami, and completed a comeback win against Nashville after going down 1-0. That comeback win was enough to slip them into 4th place, but they barely made it through. Their attack has been good but not great in this competition, scoring 5 goals in their 3 matches, and their defense has not been good at all as they conceded a goal in each of their matches and allowed 4 goals total in those 3 group matches. They are a very good team in Liga MX and usually find themselves being one of the better teams, but they are also a very inconsistent team and they will struggle to keep things together for 3 straight matches. They are not a hopeless team here as they do have the quality to make a run and it would not be shocking to see them in the Final, but they are not consistent enough to make that happen. They are on the stronger side of the bracket with a very tough 1st match against Chicago who will have home advantage, and that Monterrey defense is going to be a bigger problem the deeper they go. There is some value in Monterrey at +900, but they are not really a big threat to win this competition.
RecommendationThere are a lot of quality teams left in this competition that can win it all as the tournament feels very wide open going into the knockout rounds. It is also very clear that the winner this season will likely be a Mexican club with the quality of the teams left. The 4 Mexican clubs left in the tournament have proven to be some of the better teams in Mexico in recent years while the 4 MLS teams left include a lot of teams that have been struggling in their own domestic league this season. It would not be shocking to see any of the 4 Mexican clubs win it all, but there are a few options that do jump off the page. Club America at +500 is the best option to go with as one of the better teams in Mexico who is rounding into form recently. Chicago at +650 is the next best option as the strongest team from the MLS left and a more favorable path to the Final. Both of those teams are on the same side of the bracket though, so Leon at +650 is another great option from the opposite side of the bracket as they are on the weaker side and have been in the best form in this competition with a Leagues Cup Title in their history as well. Club America at +500 is the best option, followed by Chicago at +650, and then Leon at +650 as well.
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