College Football: Four Bowl Betting Tips
by Kyle Hunter
Thursday, Dec 12, 2024Betting in college football bowl season is completely different than betting in the regular season. The ever-changing landscape of college football with the transfer portal and opt outs is at least partially to blame. Let’s take a look at four tips to help you navigate betting on the bowls this season.#1. Wait Until Closer To Kickoff- I’m normally an advocate for betting early during the regular season. In the regular season I find it much more advantageous to get down before the marketplace beats the number around. In bowl season though, you are taking a large risk if you fire away early. We don’t even know who will be playing and who won’t be playing in these games until a few days before the game. Additionally, the long break between games often leads to some players getting in trouble and being suspended. There is always the risk of injuries in bowl practices too. If you want all the information when betting on these bowl games, you have to wait until closer to the kickoff.#2. Motivation Is Everything- Obviously the teams in the College Football Playoffs will be motivated, but in the other bowl games motivation should be your number one thing to consider before placing a bet on a side. Who wants to be here? Which team had much higher aspirations and is possibly just going through the motions? Maybe this is a rare chance for a program to reach a bowl and they want it badly. An example of a massive motivational edge game was USF vs. Syracuse last year. Syracuse went off as the favorite, but USF won 45-0 and absolutely dominated that game in every way. Is there a young quarterback with something to prove? The Tennessee 35-0 win over Iowa stands out from last season. Handicap the motivation of each team to the best of your ability.#3. Cut Down Your Bet Size- In today’s transfer portal and opt out world, I think it is wise to cut down your bet size when betting on bowl games. With a bunch of unknowns and changing variables, it is dangerous to put yourself out there too much. Personally, I found betting in bowl season to be easier in the past when the portal and opt outs were not part of the handicap. It’s now a very real part of the deal, and protecting some of your bankroll isn’t the worst idea.#4. Bet Against The Public- I am cautious to read too much into betting splits. Overall, I think they are fairly unreliable. I wouldn’t place any bets based on this alone, but trying to discern who the public is on can help this time of the year. Why? The betting public has proven year after year to be quite poor at betting on bowl games. Many of these bettors didn’t pay much attention to these teams during the year and are just jumping on steam late in the process here. Be careful not to assume that someone knows something when you see a steam move.
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