by Jazz Ray
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025With no dominant team in the NFC and the AFC turned upside down by the Chiefs’ epic fall and the Bills’ inconsistency, here’s a look at the key games down the stretch as division opponents go up against each other in Weeks 15 through 18.
NFC NORTH – Green Bay at Chicago (Week 16)
Green Bay could have a chance to take complete control of the division and grab a home game in the playoffs. The Packers, who own a one-touchdown Week 14 victory over the Bears, are 2.5-point favorites in this one even though Chicago (8-4-1 ATS) has been a much better cover team than Green Bay (5-7-1). That Week 14 Game pushed when GB intercepted a pass in the end zone in the final minute of the game.
NFC EAST – Dallas at New York Giants (Week 18)
Philadelphia pretty much owned the division until Dallas put together a three-game win streak in November, but the Cowboys’ Week 14 loss to Detroit was a killer, and this game could be moot if the Cowboys don’t get their act together. If Dallas can get through Weeks 15-17 and still show a pulse, they’ll be heavy favorites against a Giants team that figures to be fighting it out with Tennessee and Las Vegas for the overall No. 1 draft pick. Early numbers have the Cowboys as slight (-1.5) favorites, though that number will move depending on how meaningful the game is.
NFC SOUTH – Tampa Bay vs Carolina (Weeks 16 and 18)
NFL rules mandate that SOMEONE has to finish first in the NFC South, and the schedule-maker has conveniently pitted these two 7-6 teams against each other in two of the last three weeks of the season. That makes it almost certain that the Week 18 game will be significant, as the loser will most likely miss the playoffs. Oddsmakers like the Buccaneers in both games – by 3.5 this week in Carolina and by 7 in the rematch. Both teams have been outscored by their opponents in what has been a down season for the division.
NFC WEST – Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (Week 16)
The Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers are playing musical chairs in the NFC West. All three figure to make the playoffs, but this game featuring two (at this point) 10-3 teams will give the winner a huge leg up. A loss would be tough to swallow for the Seahawks, who finish up at Carolina (Week 17) and at San Francisco (Week 18) while the Rams figure to feast on also-rans Atlanta and Arizona. Seattle is a slight (+1.5) home underdog in this one.
AFC NORTH – Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Week 18)
One of these mediocre teams will make the playoffs and get a home game, with the other looking toward the draft, and this game will likely determine which is which. Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers has been crankier than usual lately, saying, “Maybe now you guys [media] will shut the hell up” (about Mike Tomlin’s future with the team). Whether the Ravens make this Week 18 game relevant depends on the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who has been dealing with multiple lower-body injuries. Baltimore is an early 4.5-point favorite in this one.
AFC EAST – Buffalo at New England (Week 15)
A win here for the Patriots (+1) ends the division race, ends chances of Josh Allen repeating as MVP, and all but assures that Mike Vrabel will have a Coach of the Year trophy to put on his mantle. NE launched its hostile takeover of the division with a stunning 23-20 victory in Buffalo when the Bills had 3 turnovers and were penalized 11 times. The Patriots are battling it out with Denver for the No. 1 conference seed and the playoff bye that comes with it. Bills are 1-point favorites in this one.
AFC SOUTH – Houston at Indianapolis (Week 18)
Daniel Jones’s season-ending injury has turned Indy’s season upside down, and the Colts (losers of three straight and facing a Seattle-San Francisco-Jacksonville gauntlet in Weeks 15-17) need to somehow stay alive to make this one meaningful on their end. Houston is roaring into the final month of the season and has five straight wins. Shame that the Texans and Jaguars have already played twice (they split) this season. It would make for a Week 18 division winner-take-all game.
NFC NORTH – Green Bay at Chicago (Week 16)
Green Bay could have a chance to take complete control of the division and grab a home game in the playoffs. The Packers, who own a one-touchdown Week 14 victory over the Bears, are 2.5-point favorites in this one even though Chicago (8-4-1 ATS) has been a much better cover team than Green Bay (5-7-1). That Week 14 Game pushed when GB intercepted a pass in the end zone in the final minute of the game.
NFC EAST – Dallas at New York Giants (Week 18)
Philadelphia pretty much owned the division until Dallas put together a three-game win streak in November, but the Cowboys’ Week 14 loss to Detroit was a killer, and this game could be moot if the Cowboys don’t get their act together. If Dallas can get through Weeks 15-17 and still show a pulse, they’ll be heavy favorites against a Giants team that figures to be fighting it out with Tennessee and Las Vegas for the overall No. 1 draft pick. Early numbers have the Cowboys as slight (-1.5) favorites, though that number will move depending on how meaningful the game is.
NFC SOUTH – Tampa Bay vs Carolina (Weeks 16 and 18)
NFL rules mandate that SOMEONE has to finish first in the NFC South, and the schedule-maker has conveniently pitted these two 7-6 teams against each other in two of the last three weeks of the season. That makes it almost certain that the Week 18 game will be significant, as the loser will most likely miss the playoffs. Oddsmakers like the Buccaneers in both games – by 3.5 this week in Carolina and by 7 in the rematch. Both teams have been outscored by their opponents in what has been a down season for the division.
NFC WEST – Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (Week 16)
The Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers are playing musical chairs in the NFC West. All three figure to make the playoffs, but this game featuring two (at this point) 10-3 teams will give the winner a huge leg up. A loss would be tough to swallow for the Seahawks, who finish up at Carolina (Week 17) and at San Francisco (Week 18) while the Rams figure to feast on also-rans Atlanta and Arizona. Seattle is a slight (+1.5) home underdog in this one.
AFC NORTH – Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Week 18)
One of these mediocre teams will make the playoffs and get a home game, with the other looking toward the draft, and this game will likely determine which is which. Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers has been crankier than usual lately, saying, “Maybe now you guys [media] will shut the hell up” (about Mike Tomlin’s future with the team). Whether the Ravens make this Week 18 game relevant depends on the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who has been dealing with multiple lower-body injuries. Baltimore is an early 4.5-point favorite in this one.
AFC EAST – Buffalo at New England (Week 15)
A win here for the Patriots (+1) ends the division race, ends chances of Josh Allen repeating as MVP, and all but assures that Mike Vrabel will have a Coach of the Year trophy to put on his mantle. NE launched its hostile takeover of the division with a stunning 23-20 victory in Buffalo when the Bills had 3 turnovers and were penalized 11 times. The Patriots are battling it out with Denver for the No. 1 conference seed and the playoff bye that comes with it. Bills are 1-point favorites in this one.
AFC SOUTH – Houston at Indianapolis (Week 18)
Daniel Jones’s season-ending injury has turned Indy’s season upside down, and the Colts (losers of three straight and facing a Seattle-San Francisco-Jacksonville gauntlet in Weeks 15-17) need to somehow stay alive to make this one meaningful on their end. Houston is roaring into the final month of the season and has five straight wins. Shame that the Texans and Jaguars have already played twice (they split) this season. It would make for a Week 18 division winner-take-all game.
