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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 08/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features MLB and EPL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Houston Astros travel to Texas to play the Rangers at 2:05 PM ET. Cristian Javier takes the ball for the Astros to pitch against Martin Perez for the Rangers. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at Milwaukee against the Brewers at 2:10 PM ET. The Brewers tap Freddy Peralta to take the mound against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Pirates. The San Diego Padres are at San Francisco against the Giants at 3:45 PM ET. Joe Musgrove gets tapped as the starting pitcher for the Padres to pitch against Alex Wood for the Giants. San Diego is a -140 money line road favorite, with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles at 6:10 PM ET. The Guardians turn to Triston McKenzie to battle against the Orioles’ Jordan Lyles. Cleveland is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at Miami with Drew Rasmussen dueling against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Marlins. St. Louis is at Cincinnati with the Jose Quintana taking the ball for the Cardinals to pitch against Mike Minor for the Reds. The Cardinals are a -225 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Oakland A’s visit Washington to play the Nationals at 7:05 PM ET. The A’s turn to James Kaprielian to take the hill against the Nationals’ Anibal Sanchez. Oakland is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:07 PM ET. Mitch White takes the mound for the Blue Jays against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Cubs. Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. New York hosts Los Angeles with the Mets’ pitching Jacob DeGrom against the Dodgers’ Tyler Alexander. The Mets are a -150 money line favorite with a total of 7. Seattle travels to Detroit with Marco Gonzales pitching for the Mariners against Tyler Alexander for the Tigers. The Mariners are a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves tap Kyle Wright to pitch against the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner. Atlanta is a -300 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:40 PM ET. Joe Ryan takes the hill for the Twins against Michael Wacha for the Red Sox. Minnesota is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago White Sox host the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 PM ET. The White Sox tap Lance Lynn to pitch against the Royals’ Kris Bubic. Chicago is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Patrick Sandoval for the Angels. New York is a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play at Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET. The Phillies send out Bailey Falter to pitch against the Diamondbacks’ Tommy Henry. Philadelphia is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 9.Matchweek 5 in the English Premier League continues with five matches. Three matches begin at 2:30 PM ET. Arsenal hosts Aston Villa as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton travels to Bournemouth as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City plays at home against Nottingham Forest as a -3 goal line favorite with an over/under of 4. Tottenham plays at West Ham United at 2:45 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Liverpool is at home against Newcastle United on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. 

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Is Dylan Bundy Preparing for a Career Renaissance in his 30s?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Aug 30, 2022

Dylan Bundy is probably not going to ever regain the form he demonstrated in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Signed as a free agent in the offseason by the Los Angeles Angels, the right-hander posted an 11-6 record with a 3.29 era and a 1.04 whip in eleven starts compromising of 65 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate of 27.0% of the batters he faced was the highest of his career. Yet in his second-year with the Angels, Bundy was a major disappointment. He had a 2-9 record with an ugly 6.06 era and a 1.36 whip. He made nineteen starts in twenty-three appearances in pitching 65 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate dropped to 21.2%, and his walk-rate rose to an 8.6% mark of all the batters he faced, a five-year high since his second season in the league with Baltimore.The Minnesota Twins signed him in the offseason with the hopes that he could find that 2020 formula that worked so well with the Angels. Going into his start on Monday against Boston, many of his numbers did not look promising. For the year, Bundy had a 7-6 record with a 4.56 era and a 1.21 whip, yet there were reasons for optimism for his starts this month that helped persuade us to back Minnesota in our MLB Game of the Month on that day. Bundy was coming off a start in Houston the previous Wednesday where he allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings of work. In his four previous starts in August, Bundy has a 2.32 era and a 0.86 whip. His walk-rate of 5.1% of the batters he has faced was the lowest of his career. He had walked only four batters in his last five starts consisting of 24 1/3 innings, and he has not walked more than one batter in an outing since July 26th.The 29-year-old held the Red Sox to just two runs but could not get the final out in the fifth inning to complete five full innings of work. In hindsight, the effort was indicative of where Bundy has gone in his career. He struck out only three batters, and he has a mere six strikeout in his last four starts comprising 20 innings. His strikeout rate of 16.7% is the lowest of his career. Yet he did enough to put his team in a position to win the game, and Minnesota did pull the game out, 4-2. Bundy has only allowed six earned runs in his last four starts for a 2.70 era. While he is not striking out batters like he was in 2020, he has changed his tactics to rely more on his control. After walking only one Red Sox batter on Monday, his walk rate has dropped to 5.0% while averaging just 1.91 bases-on-balls per nine innings. His previous career-low was in that 2020 season with the Angels when he walked 2.33 batters per nine innings. Bundy is a fly ball pitcher with 44.3% of the balls that batters are putting into play being fly balls. Yet his home run rate of 1.27 per nine innings is the second-lowest of his career, behind the 0.68 home runs per nine innings he allowed in his benchmark 2020 season. Bundy is not likely to ever approach the numbers he put up in that shortened season in 2020. Yet by reducing his walks and getting more batters to settle for fly balls when pitching half his games in Target Stadium for the Twins, he just might find a new formula for success. That 2020 campaign was the only year in his career where he posted an era below 4.00. He could develop into a veteran who can be a 3.75 era in the back half of his career just yet.Good luck - Team Del Genio. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 08/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Aug 30, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features MLB and EPL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles at 6:10 PM ET. Cal Quantrill takes the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Spenser Watkins for the Orioles. Cleveland is a -155 money line favorite, with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at Miami, with the Rays turning to Shane McClanahan in their starting rotation to battle against the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo. The Rays are a -250 money line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 6.5. St. Louis visits Cincinnati with Dakota Hudson on the mound for the Cardinals against Justin Dunn for the Reds. The Cardinals are a -210 money line road favorite with a total of 10. The Washington Nationals host the Oakland A’s at 7:05 PM ET. The Nationals turn to Erick Fedde to pitch against the A’s Cole Irvin. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:07 PM ET. Kevin Gausman pitches for the Blue Jays against Marcus Stroman for the Cubs. Toronto is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Seattle visits Detroit with the Mariners tapping George Kirby to pitch against the Tigers’ Matt Manning. The Mariners are a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Los Angeles plays at New York on TBS with Andrew Heaney pitching for the Dodgers against Taijuan Walker for the Mets. The Dodgers are a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves tap Max Fried to pitch against Jose Urena for the Rockies. Atlanta is a -360 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox at 7:40 PM ET. Chris Archer takes the hill for the Twins against Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox. Minnesota is a -135 money line favorite with a total of 9.  The Houston Astros play at Texas against the Rangers at 8:05 PM ET. The Astros turn to Framber Valdez in their starting rotation to pitch against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. Houston is a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at Milwaukee with Mitch Keller pitching for the Pirates against Jason Alexander for the Brewers. Chicago plays at home against Kansas City, with the White Sox turning to Lucas Giolito to pitch against the Royals’ Brady Singer. The White Sox are a -135 money line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. Jameson Taillon takes the hill for the Yankees to duel against Mike Mayers for the Angels. New York is a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play at Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET. The Phillies turn to Aaron Nola to pitch against the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen. Philadelphia is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres visit San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 PM ET. Blake Snell pitches for the Padres against Logan Webb for the Giants. San Diego is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Matchweek 5 in the English Premier League begins with four matches. Two games start at 2:30 PM ET. Crystal Palace plays at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all EPL odds from BetMGM). Brighton and Hove Albion are at Fulham as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Chelsea travels to Southampton at 2:45 PM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Leeds United hosts Everton on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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NCAAF Inside the Boxscores Week 0

by Matt Fargo

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

Inside the Boxscores is a weekly feature from Matt Fargo that has been widely recognized as one of the best summations in college football. He takes an in-depth look at each game and pulls out the most pertinent information that will help you handicap games in the future. College football is filled with quirky plays, misleading scores and surprise endings. Fargo takes you inside the action.Western Kentucky 38, Austin Peay 27Western Kentucky outgained Austin Peay by only 61 total yards, was equal in first downs with 19 and had the ball for over five minutes less but had a +3 takeaway advantage and scored 21 points off turnovers. The Governors closed the first quarter with a 10-7 lead but the Hilltoppers scored the next two touchdowns, the second on a 34-yard interception return. Austin Peay pulled to within a point in the middle of the third quarter but Western Kentucky opened the fourth with a 71-yard touchdown drive and then recovered a fumble four plays later which led to a three-play touchdown drive. The Governors were able to pull within a possession midway through the quarter after an interception led to a three-play, 85-yard touchdown drive. The Hilltoppers put the game away on a late field goal. Northwestern 31, Nebraska 28Northwestern outgained Nebraska 528-465 as it used a solid rushing attack, running for 214 yards on 4.6 ypc. The Huskers opened the game by driving 75 yards for a touchdown and eventually built a 14-3 lead before Northwestern came back and took the lead after two long touchdown drives of 75 and 82 yards. After forcing a punt, Nebraska opened the second half scoring with an 88-yard touchdown drive and then recovered a fumble and scored two plays later to build another 11-point lead. The Wildcats used a long kickoff return to set up a 46-yard touchdown drive and took the lead back in the fourth quarter on another short touchdown drive following a Nebraska interception. The final six Huskers possessions resulted in four punts and two interceptions that generated only 84 total yards. UNLV 52, Idaho State 21UNLV scored on its first seven possessions while outgaining Idaho St. 554-241. UNLV led 10-7 after the first quarter and then scored touchdowns on all five second quarter possessions to pull away early. The Bengals offense opened by driving into Rebels territory but were intercepted that eventually led to a UNLV field goal yet were able to put together a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to pull to within three points before the offense was completely shut down. Idaho St. managed only 11 total net yards on its next seven possessions before stringing together a pair of late touchdowns after the game out of reach. UNLV held the Bengals to just 50 yards rushing on 40 attempts (1.3 ypc) while also generating five sacks but did allow Idaho St. to go 4-4 on fourth down attempts.  Utah State 31, UConn 20Utah St. was shutout in the first quarter as in four possessions, it was forced to punt twice and turned the ball over twice inside the Connecticut 30-yard line, once with a fumble and once on downs. The Huskies took advantage with two touchdown drives of 79 yards to take a 14-0 lead but the Aggies ran off 24 unanswered points as the defense took over, allowing just 72 yards on the next seven Connecticut possessions. The Huskies trimmed the deficit to four points early in the fourth quarter but Utah St. tacked on the clinching touchdown with six minutes left. The Aggies eventually outgained Connecticut 542-364 yet the rushing defense was exposed by allowing 245 yards on 39 carries (6.3 ypc) but did allow only 13 completions on a mere 3.6 yards per attempt while picking off two passes. Illinois 38, Wyoming 6Illinois dominated throughout as it outgained Wyoming 477-212 which included a 217-30 edge in passing yards and a 26-10 advantage in first downs. It did take a little while to get the offense going as the Illini scored on just three of their first nine possessions but pulled away with three second half touchdowns and gained 234 total yards in six possessions. Wyoming entered Illinois territory only twice that resulted in a pair of field goals as the Cowboys were a combined 1-13 on third and fourth down and overall, 11 of its 13 drives generated 19 or fewer yards. It was a balanced attack for Illinois on offense as it rushed for 260 yards on 41 carries (6.3 ypc) and going 30-40 for 217 yards through the air while not committing a turnover and holding onto the ball for over 36 minutes. Florida State 47, Duquesne 7The Seminoles were never in danger as they scored on their first six possessions in building a 33-0 lead early in the third quarter. Florida St outgained Duquesne 638-164 with the rushing offense leading the way with 406 yards on 54 carries (7.5 ypc) possessing incredible balance with three players gaining over 100 yards on the ground and five rushing for at least one touchdown albeit against an FCS defense. The Seminoles got into Dukes territory on their first nine possessions with the only hiccup being an interception on their second drive in the third quarter. That turnover resulted in the only Duquesne touchdown that needed just 30 yards on two plays and the Dukes had 30 yards or more on three of its 11 possessions while converting one of 10 third down attempts. Florida Atlantic 43, Charlotte 13Charlotte received the opening kickoff and went 75 yards to jump ahead 7-0 and then it was the Florida Atlantic defense that took over. The 49ers generated only 35 total yards on their next seven possessions with all of those totaling four plays or less. The Owls allowed only two third down conversions, had four sacks and were benefitted by 10 Charlotte penalties. Overall, they outgained the 49ers 482-279 but the offense was inconsistent as they did have five scoring drives of 65 or more yards but were held to three field goals and also had three different three and outs. Charlotte got into Florida Atlantic territory in three of its last four possessions that produced 162 total yards but resulted in just one score as it was denied on fourth down twice inside the Owls 30-yard line. North Carolina 56, Florida A&M 24Both teams opened with punts on their first possession but then North Carolina took over on offense, scoring touchdowns on its next three drives and eight of the next 10 to pull away. Florida A&M did have success of its own on offense as after two punts to open the game, it scored on four of its next six possessions with the last cutting the lead to 35-24 late in the third quarter before the Tar Heels pulled away with three fourth quarter touchdowns. North Carolina outgained the Rattlers 608-335 with the rushing game being the difference as it had 314 yards on 40 carries (7.9 ypc) while allowing just 56 yards on 27 carries (2.1 ypc). The area for concern for the Tar Heels was giving up 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average and that has to get better when competition gets more difficult. Nevada 23, New Mexico State 12New Mexico St. opened the scoring with a safety but the first half offense had too many miscues. The Aggies got inside the Nevada 30-yard line on its first two possessions but missed a field goal and threw an interception and they had four turnovers on seven drives in the half and were unable to score. The second half was much better where they gained 198 yards on their last three possessions but resulted in a touchdown, a field goal and another turnover at the Nevada nine-yard line in the final minute. Nevada was actually outgained 303-257 but benefitted from those five turnovers while not turning the ball over on offense. That offense has work to do as it had only 78 yards passing with just a 3.4 yard per attempt average while the rushing game averaged only 4.0 ypc. North Texas 31, UTEP 13UTEP played North Texas even for a half as it trailed by just one point at halftime before the Mean Green pulled away. The Miners actually won the yardage battle 400-399 but the offense did not convert in clutch spots. They opened the game by getting inside the redzone twice but missed a field goal and turned it over on fourth down at the one yard line. Additionally, it turned it over on fourth down on its final three possessions and on the night, it was inside North Texas territory nine times in 10 drives but came away with just three scores. The Mean Green punted on their first two possessions but were forced to punt only one other time after that and scored on five of their next six possessions not counting a kneel down before halftime while going 5-5 in redzone scoring opportunities.  Vanderbilt 63, Hawaii 10Hawaii took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards on eight plays to take a 7-0 lead and after Vanderbilt got nothing on its first two possessions, the Commodores scored two touchdowns, one on a fumble return to take the lead. The Warriors cut it to 14-10 and then it was all Vanderbilt. The Commodores got into Hawaii territory on its next nine possessions, scoring six touchdowns while failing on fourth down inside the Warriors 34-yard line three times. Overall, Vanderbilt won the yardage battle 601-358 despite running nine fewer plays as the rushing offense could not be stopped with 404 yards on 44 carries (9.2 ypc). The Warriors aired it out 55 times but averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt as going 5-20 on third and fourth down killed numerous drives in Vanderbilt territory. 

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Three Group of 5 Teams to Follow/Watch In the 2022 Season

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

We all know about the big names like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame. Of course those teams are going to be tremendous. Do you think the oddsmakers know that? Absolutely! I find it more valuable to try to look for teams who could make some noise that are off the radar a bit. Let’s take a look at three teams from Group of 5 conferences who I think you should be paying attention to going into the season.Air Force FalconsThe Mountain West is a strong conference, and I expect Air Force to be a true contender here. The Falcons are coached by Troy Calhoun, who is an underrated coach by many bettors. They have a veteran star signal caller in Haaziq Daniels. A great decision maker at quarterback is crucial in this triple option attack, and Air Force absolutely has that in Daniels. They are loaded in the backfield as well. Despite having an inexperienced offensive line last season, they led the nation in rushing yards. Look out for a ton of rushing yards this year! It’s also important to note that Air Force has a very favorable schedule. There’s only a game or two where there is even a chance they will be an underdog. The Falcons get Boise State at home, and they don’t have to play Fresno State. Toledo Rockets The Toledo Rockets went 7-6 last year despite having a much higher expected win percentage based on advanced statistics. They lost a bunch of very close games. The ball didn’t seem to bounce their way. Toledo has the most talent of any team in the Mid American Conference. DeQuan Finn is now the clear cut starter at quarterback, and he’s a great runner and a solid passer. Peny Boone transferred in from Maryland to be the starter at running back.The MAC is always wild, and I would expect no different this year. Those MACtion games in the middle of the week come in November can be about as good as you get. Toledo hasn’t made bettors money in the last three years on the whole, and I think that makes them undervalued coming into this season. Can the talent win out for the Rockets?Southern Miss Golden EaglesThe Southern Miss football program has a nice history, but last year the train went way off the tracks. The Golden Eagles went 3-9 and 4-8 ATS. They had so many quarterback injuries and talent issues that Frank Gore Jr. ended up playing quarterback at the end of the season. Gore is a good runner (one of the best in the Sun Belt), and Southern Miss will be happy to have him back at running back this season. Ty Keyes is said to be ready to go for the season at quarterback.The Southern Miss defense wasn’t bad last year. They were put in terrible spots consistently, but they did stand up and do a solid job given everything thrown their way. Ole Miss transfer Tylan Knight comes in and he should be star at linebacker. The secondary is very good as well. This team is off the radar of most people because they were so bad a year ago, but they are more talented than their record appeared. They could be one to watch on an against the spread basis this year!

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WNBA Semifinal Observations After Road Teams Win Game 1

by Vegas Writer

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

The top four seeds are in the WNBA Final Four, and we're underway with the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces facing the fourth-seeded Seattle Storm, and the second-seeded and defending champion Chicago Sky taking on third-seeded Connecticut Sun.As we saw in both Game 1s, nobody is invincible at this point, as both road teams opened their series with wins.Here's a breakdown after the first game, looking at what needs to be done.No. 4 SEATTLE at No. 1 LAS VEGASSeattleBIGGEST STRENGTH: Breanna Stewart is phenomenal. It's no wonder the Associated Press made her the MVP this season, over Wilson. Her fundamentals are outstanding, and the mid-season addition of Tina Charles has helped form what might be the most formidable frontcourt left in the playoffs. Wilson is arguably the best defender in the league, but she cannot defend both Stewart and Charles. All due respect to Las Vegas' Kiah Stokes, she can't handle either Charles or Stewart for a full game.NEEDS SOME WORK: The Storm may have won on Sunday, but they did so despite their offense. The Aces held Seattle to 76 points. After Seattle opened a 26-15 lead in the first quarter, it scored just 17, 17, and 16 over the next three quarters. If it wasn't for Jewell Loyd's heroics, the Aces come back to win that game. Stewart was dominating in the first half but finished 9 of 17. Charles was just 6 of 18. Sue Bird was 1 for 6.X-FACTOR: The Storm might have the best bench left in the playoffs. Though it only provided four points on Sunday, what won't show up on the scoreboard is the defensive efforts from Briann January, Ezi Magbegor, or Epiphanny Prince. Seattle has to put its bench to work if it wants to steal Game 2.ATS FACTS: The Storm have now covered five of their last six on the road and seven of their last 10 overall. Flipside, when they play on two days rest they've failed to cover seven of their last 10. Long term, Seattle is mired in an 8-22 ATS slide against Western Conference foes. Despite a low-scoring Game 1, the Storm remain on a 7-1 over run, and have gone high in nine of their last 12 road games.Las VegasBIGGEST STRENGTH: Some would think otherwise, specifically when you have A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum in the lineup, but Chelsea Gray is the key component for this team. Gray is a seasoned veteran who knows how to run a championship offense. She won a title in Los Angeles, and there have been several times we've seen her close games for the Aces, with big fourth quarters whether it's scoring or dishing dimes.NEEDS SOME WORK: The first quarter doldrums. Though the Aces went 21-14-1 in the first quarter during the regular season, it's their tenacity or lack thereof, that has hindered them at times. Sunday's series opener saw the Storm smack the Aces around, both offensively and defensively. And when you're playing a championship-caliber team like the Storm, you cannot make mistakes early on and open the door.X-FACTOR: Wilson needs more touches, and coach Becky Hammon has to make adjustments when Seattle's switches leave mismatches in certain spots. At many times, Wilson was left without a lane to the paint or was defended well enough to limit her attempts. The MVP candidate took 0 shots in the first quarter and finished 3 of 10 from the field. This falls on Hammon to correct.ATS FACTS: The Aces will roll into Wednesday's second game riding a 6-1 ATS streak on two days rest, and a 4-1 ATS streak off an ATS loss. Problem for them is they've failed to cover 11 of their last 15 in Vegas. The Aces may boast the highest scoring offense in the league, but they've stayed under in 11 of their last 16.No. 3 CONNECTICUT at No. 2 CHICAGOConnecticutBIGGEST STRENGTH: Everybody raves about the starting lineup in Vegas, as they should. But let's not forget what the Sun bring to the floor for the opening tip. I mean, DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas, Courtney Williams, Jonquel Jones, Natisha Hiedeman ... right now, that's the best starting five in the playoffs. The attitude and chemistry that flow through this lineup are exactly what coach Curt Miller wants when making a run to the championship game.NEEDS SOME WORK: Miller mentioned postgame how much the Sun struggled to get Jones the ball due to how the Sky played her. Much like I said about the Hammon finding a way to get Wilson more touches and more shot attempts, the Sun would benefit greatly in Game 2, knowing Chicago will make adjustments if they find ways to free Jones for better shot attempts.X-FACTOR: Williams is a straight Dawg. One of the biggest moments in the game came with 5:13 to go when she and Chicago's Kahleah Copper received double technical fouls for refusing to let go of a called jump ball. It clearly set the tone for the rest of the game, as Williams wasn't about to be intimidated in Chicago. That 11-second tug-of-war was the key that reminded Connecticut to ride it out with a Dawg Mentality. Williams might be one of the littlest players on the Sun, but she's nasty when she's in game mode and will take you out of your game both mentally and physically.ATS FACTS: With Sunday's outright win, the Sun head into Game 2 on an 8-0 ATS run, and a 14-3 spread streak overall. It marked just their second cover in seven games against teams with a better than .500 record. Connecticut's games have run high in five of its last seven.ChicagoBIGGEST STRENGTH: Offensive efficiency is the Sky's specialty, but it seemed to be non-existent on Sunday. We saw Connecticut outscore Chicago 20-12 in the third quarter, and that might have been acceptable in the first quarter. But by the third, the most efficient offense in the league has to be better. The Sky simply couldn't find the consistency they've enjoyed all season, and they need to get back to their strengths with Allie Quigley, Courtney Vandersloot, and Candace Parker leading the charge.NEEDS SOME WORK: If there is one thing Chicago was able to boast this season, it was balanced with the right effort on both ends of the floor. But the Sky's defense was also inconsistent, and that is troublesome when you consider they went 4-0 against the Sun during the regular season. Connecticut was able to build an eight-point first-quarter lead by scoring 11 points off six Chicago turnovers, which couples with the Sky's offensive inconsistencies. If anything coach James Wade wants his team running the floor, and moving fast-paced, rather than getting into a tussle.X-FACTOR: Vandersloot didn't have her first assist until late in the fourth quarter and finished with only two. She had several good set-up passes her teammates couldn't knock down, but she was also defended well with limited space to operate. If Chicago wants to find its efficiency, it starts with Vandersloot.ATS FACTS: The Sky have answered losses quite well, having covered four of their last five after a SU loss. But, they've also failed to cover four of their last five at home. Chicago has eclipsed the number in 12 of its last 17 at home.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

The Monday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Miami against the Marlins to conclude their four-game weekend series. The Dodgers won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 8-1 victory on Sunday. They have the best record in MLB, with an 88-38 mark. The Marlins have lost three of four games to have their record drop to 55-72. Tony Gonsolin takes the ball for Los Angeles to pitch against Pablo Lopez for Miami. The Dodgers are a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 7 (all odds from DraftKings).The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds. The Cardinals won for the third time in their last four games with their 6-3 victory against Atlanta on Sunday night. They raised their record to 74-54 with the win. The Reds lost for the sixth time in their last seven games after their 3-2 loss in Washington on Sunday. Their record is 50-76. St. Louis taps Miles Mikolas to take the mound against Cincinnati’s Chase Anderson. The Cardinals are a -205 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago Cubs at 7:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays are on a three-game losing streak after an 8-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angeles on Sunday. Their record has fallen to 68-58. The Cubs lost for the third time in their last four games with a 9-7 loss at Milwaukee on Sunday. They have a 55-73 record. Jose Berrios takes the hill for Toronto to battle against Javier Assad for the Cubs. Milwaukee is a -215 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:40 PM ET. The Twins are on a three-game winning streak with their 8-3 victory against San Francisco on Sunday. They improved their record to 65-61 with the win. The Red Sox ended a two-game winning streak with a 12-4 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday. They are in last place in the AL East with a 62-66 record. The Twins turn to Dylan Bundy to pitch against the Red Sox’s Brayan Bello. Minnesota is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Milwaukee to play the Brewers at 8:10 PM ET. The Pirates ended a seven-game losing streak with a 5-0 upset victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. That win raised their record to 48-79. The Brewers won for the second time in a row yesterday with their win against the Cubs. They are in second place in the NL Central with a 67-59 record. Corbin Burnes is on the bump for Milwaukee against a starting pitcher yet to be named by Pittsburgh. The New York Yankees travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Yankees are on a two-game losing streak after their 4-1 loss in Oakland yesterday. Their record dropped to 78-50 with the losses. The Angels are on a three-game winning streak after their 8-3 victory at Toronto yesterday. Los Angeles improved their record to 55-73 in their disappointing season. New York taps Frankie Montas to duel against Los Angeles’ Jose Suarez. The Yankees are a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.The Philadelphia Phillies play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET. The Phillies’ six-game winning streak ended yesterday with their loss to the Pirates. Their record dropped to 72-56. The Diamondbacks won for the fourth time in their last five games after a 3-2 victory in Chicago against the White Sox. They have a 59-67 record. Ranger Suarez pitches for Philadelphia against Madison Bumgarner for Arizona. The Phillies are a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants have lost four straight and eight of their last ten games after their loss in Minnesota on Sunday. Their record has fallen to 61-65. The Padres’ two-game winning end yesterday in a 15-7 loss at Kansas City. They have a 70-59 record. The Giants tap Carlos Rodon to take the mound against the Padres’ Mike Clevinger. San Francisco is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.

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NFL 2022/23 Preview

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is incredibly difficult, and hasn’t been accomplished since the 2003 and 2004 Patriots were laying the foundation for their dynasty. Even getting to the SB two straight times requires lots of talent and lots of breaks. This year the defending-champion Rams at least have the talent part locked down, and they have made a down payment on the luck portion as they compete in a weakened NFC and NFC West. Arizona may cause some trouble, but San Francisco hasn’t quite got its act together and for the first time in more than a decade Seattle will sit down at the table without Russell Wilson calling signals. Life would have been simpler for the Rams if Aaron Rodgers had followed through on threats to walk away and Tom Brady had extended his departure from two weeks to six months, but the Rams are – on paper – at least as strong as they were last year. Oddsmakers have listed the Rams at +1100 to win the SB for the second straight time, with an O/U win total of 10.5.---The Bills aren’t likely to win 11 straight division titles like the Patriots did between 2009 and 2019, but they have two in a row in their back pockets, and they’re heavy (-225) favorites to make it a hat trick. Buffalo just doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses on a deep roster. The O/U win total is set at 12, which will no doubt scare away some bettors. But if they cover that at 13-4, it likely will result in a home-field edge throughout the playoffs and give them a huge advantage on the road to the Super Bowl (the Bills are favored there, at +600). Such is the strength of the roster that the only concern is the loss of Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll, who is now the HC of the Giants. Strong-armed Josh Allen, an MVP candidate, will continue to lead the offense, while the defense with start five former first-round picks and again be among the best in the league.---Could there possibly be a more enticing opening day game than Bills vs. Rams in Los Angeles? Buffalo opened as a 1-point favorite, but early wagering has pushed the Bills to -2.5.---Futures bettors may be getting cold feet after watching the Packers flame out of the playoffs for two straight seasons, but come on. The Packers are still loaded, they still have Rodgers and they are among the Super Bowl favorites (+1140). Rodgers should have little trouble finding open receivers even after the trade of Pro Bowler Davante Adams, but with AR the issue always seems to be what’s happening off the field. Signing a three-year contract – even at age 37 -- may ease concerns somewhat, but with Rodgers you never know. Oddsmakers give him more than a puncher’s chance to win his third MVP, at +850 and behind Allen (+650), Patrick Mahomes (+750) and Brady (+800).---There’s a concern in New England that Year 3 of the post-Tom Brady Era won’t go any better than Years 1 or 2 – and could even be worse. The reconstructed offense has been a penalty-filled mess in the pre-season, second-year QB Mac Jones has been mediocre and no one even knows what coach is calling the plays. Patriot starters got pushed around by Raider reserve in the final exhibition, raising red flags from Maine to Connecticut. Oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, dropping NE to +4200 to win the Super Bowl after being listed at +3500 prior to the start of training camp. The Patriots are even a slight (+160) dog to make the playoffs, with the Over/Under win total at 8.5. The Pats face the headwinds of a loaded AFC and an improved AFC East. Bill Belichick has pulled rabbits out of his hat in the past, but the fact remains that his SU coaching without Brady under center is 51-66.

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Four College Football Coaching & Schematic Changes to Consider

by Kyle Hunter

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

As a college football bettor, one of the first things you should do early in the season is look for teams making large changes. This can be head coaching changes or it can be coordinator changes. Looking for drastic changes can give you a chance to find value in the early season. Let’s take a look at four teams where there could be major changes this year.Pittsburgh PanthersPat Narduzzi is still here, but there’s a big change at offensive coordinator with Frank Cignetti taking over after Mark Whipple left for Nebraska. Pittsburgh was a pass heavy team under Whipple with Kenny Pickett at the helm. Cignetti has made it clear he wants Pittsburgh to be a run first team that controls the clock. The Panthers still have a great defense. Pickett is gone and Kedon Slovis takes over at quarterback. The Pitt offense should look a lot different this year.Washington HuskiesKalen DeBoer is a great offensive mind, and he steps in after the Jimmy Lake era flopped in a big way. DeBoer did some tremendous things at both Indiana and Fresno State. Michael Penix Jr. transfers in to Washington. The Huskies were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. I would expect a faster pace of play this season. Can Penix get back to his old form from before the injury? I wouldn’t expect as many defensive slog it out type games here as we have seen in recent seasons.New Mexico State AggiesJerry Kill takes over at New Mexico State. This is undeniably a very tough job. Kill is a quality coach, but it won’t be a quick fix. New Mexico State ranked 28th in the nation in tempo last year, and Kill has made it very clear they are going to slow down this year. New Mexico State is very weak at quarterback and they are going to do their best to run the football and control the clock. I would expect this team to go from top 30 in the country in tempo to bottom 30 in the country in tempo. Kansas State WildcatsCollin Klein takes over as the new offensive coordinator in Manhattan. I think Chris Klieman is an excellent coach. He has typically been seen as a defensive-minded guy who wants to keeps games lower scoring and grind out games. Klein has been quoted multiple times in the offseason as saying this team wants to play faster. Kansas State ranked 127th out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play last year. They bring in Adrian Martinez at quarterback, and that should make this team interesting to watch at the very least. Can he get his turnover problems under control? I’m still a little skeptical that Kansas State would want to play very fast, but I’ll be closely watching for changes here. 

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NFL Preseason Totals System

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

The NFL preseason was shortened to 3 games in 2021.  From a handicapping standpoint, that reduced the number of opportunities.  But there are still some good situations, if you let them come to you.  Indeed, there's a nice over/under situation on today's card.The game we are going to look at involves the New York Giants and New York Jets.  Both of these teams come into the game off back-to-back wins.  The Giants defeated New England, 23-21, in Week 1.  And then they bested the Bengals, 25-22, last week.  The Jets pulled off two upsets in their games.  They went into Philly, and won, 24-21, to open the preseason.  And then they upset Atlanta, 24-16, here at the Meadowlands, this past Monday.The Jets are currently favored in this game by 4.5 points, while the over/under is 38.The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  After all, each team has played back-to-back games that totaled 40+ points.But as is often the case in sports betting, the obvious play isn't always the profitable play.  Consider that, over the past 27 preseasons, NFL games have gone 'under' the total 67% of the time when the two teams each were off back-to-back games that totaled 40+ points!In fact, we saw an example of this last night when the Cincinnati Bengals hosted the Los Angeles Rams.  Cincinnati's first two games this preseason were a 36-23 loss to Arizona, and a 25-22 defeat at the NY Giants.  Similarly, the Rams opened their preseason with a high-scoring game -- a 29-22 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.  And then they fell last week, 24-20, to the Houston Texans.  The over/under in the Rams/Bengals game yesterday was installed at 37 points.  And the game easily sailed under the posted number when Cincinnati prevailed, 16-7.I look for another low-scoring game this afternoon in the Meadowlands.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 08/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NFLX, MLB, and EPL action.The NFLX preseason concludes this afternoon with two games. The New York Jets are the technical home team against the New York Giants on the NFL Network at 1 PM ET. The Jets are a 5-point favorite, with the total set at 38.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Detroit Lions on CBS at 4:30 PM ET. The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 39. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Miami to play the Marlins on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET. Julio Urias takes the ball for the Dodgers to pitch against Edward Cabrera for the Marlins. Los Angeles is a -260 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Cincinnati plays at Washington with the Reds tapping Nick Lodolo to battle against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The Reds are a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Tampa Bay is at Boston with Corey Kluber on the mound for the Rays against Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. The Rays are a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Philadelphia is at home against Pittsburgh with the Phillies tapping Noah Syndergaard to pitch against the Pirates’ Roansy Contreras. The Phillies are a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels at 1:37 PM ET. Ross Stripling pitches for the Blue Jays against Tucker Davidson for the Angels. Toronto is a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The New York Mets are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 1:40 PM ET. The Mets send out Max Scherzer to duel against the Rockies’ German Marquez. New York is a -340 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Five MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. San Diego travels to Kansas City with Sean Manaea taking the mound for the Padres to pitch against Jonathan Heasley for the Royals. The Padres are a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Minnesota is at home against San Francisco, with the Twins turning to Aaron Sanchez to pitch against the Giants’ Jakob Junis. The Twins are a -115 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee hosts Chicago with Eric Lauer pitching for the Brewers against Adrian Sampson for the Cubs. The Brewers are a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston plays at home against Baltimore, with the Astros tapping Justin Verlander to pitch against the Orioles’ Austin Voth. The Astros are a -255 money line favorite with a total of 7. Chicago hosts Arizona with Dylan Cease pitching for the White Sox against Zach Davies for the Diamondbacks. The White Sox are a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 2:35 PM ET. Kohei Arihara takes the ball for the Rangers to pitch against Drew Hutchison for the Tigers. Texas is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees visit Oakland against the A’s at 4:07 PM ET. The Yankees send Clarke Schmidt to the hill to pitch against the A’s Zach Logue. New York is a -215 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Seattle Mariners host the Cleveland Guardians at 4:10 PM ET. Robbie Ray pitches for the Mariners against Aaron Civale for the Guardians. Seattle is a -150 money line favorite with a total of 7. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the St. Louis Cardinals playing at home against the Atlanta Braves at 7:07 PM ET. The Cardinals tap Adam Wainwright to pitch against the Braves Jake Odorizzi. St. Louis is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Matchweek 3 in the English Premier League concludes with three matches. Two matches begin at 9 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts West Ham United on the USA Network as a 0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all EPL odds from BetMGM). Newcastle United travels to Wolverhampton in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham plays at Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 11:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Lance Lynn's Velocity is Back Up (But Proceed with Caution)

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Aug 27, 2022

Lance Lynn has been a disappointment for much of the season for the Chicago White Sox. The 35-year-old right-hander was integral to the team’s playoff run last year when he posted an 11-6 record with a 2.69 era and a 1.07 whip in 28 starts. Yet the start of his 2022 season was delayed by his having surgery on his right knee to repair a torn tendon. When he finally got his season going in June after a stint on the 60-day injured list, he struggled to regain his velocity. Going into his fourteenth start of the season on Thursday (August 25th) on the road against Baltimore, the right-hander had a 3-5 record this season in thirteen starts with a 5.30 era and a 1.23 whip. We noted at the time that his velocity has been at its best all season this month. Yet his strikeout rate of 24.5% of the batters he had faced was the lowest in the last four seasons, and while he is striking out 9.17 batters per nine innings in his previous three starts (with the bump in velocity), that rate still represented a four-year low for him if extended to the entire season. Another concern for Lynn even with the return of his velocity has been in giving up too many home runs. Lynn had allowed 14 home runs this season at a rate of 1.77 home runs allowed per nine innings which is a career-high for him. In his previous three starts, he had given up another three home runs for a 1.52 home runs allowed per nine-inning rate which was an improvement yet still would be a career-high for him if extended to the entire season. These underlying issues played a role in our choosing the Orioles that night for our MLB Underdog of the Month. Fortunately, Baltimore won the game in extra innings, 3-2, after tying the game in the bottom of the ninth inning from a Kyle Stowers home run. At first glance, our take on Lynn may have looked to be off. He gave up only two runs, with just one of them being an earned run, in six innings. He struck out eight batters, representing 36.3% of the batters he faced. Yet Lynn’s gopher ball problems continued as he gave up a home run in the first inning to Anthony Santander (who later won the game with a homer in the bottom of the 11th inning). He is now allowing 1.75 home runs per nine innings having given up 15 bombs in his 77 1/3 innings. Lynn has given up eleven home runs in his last eight starts and eight homers in his last six starts. Perhaps bettors can talk themselves into dismissing those numbers because of his earlier velocity issues, but he has still given up four home runs in his last four starts in August even with his velocity back to normal. Lynn is pitching better than he was when returned from the injured list in June. Yet he is giving up too many home runs to then assume he has regained his form from last season. When it comes to backing the White Sox with Lynn on the mound, proceed with caution. Good luck - TDG.

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