Articles

If You're Getting Your Handicapping From TV or Radio Hosts, Get Ready to Go Broke!

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Sep 06, 2022

If caught my attention yesterday when a radio hosts sports wannabe handicapper was talking about how strong LSU’s late drinking fest in Baton Rouge was and the affect it would have on their game. He said the venue was an incredibly solid strong home venue.  NOTE: They we’re playing in New Orleans at the Superdome and Florida St won outright. So much for that information. Lol  An ESPN Handicapper was attempting to explain that if Buffalo went from -2 to -2.5 and -3 against the Rams that it indicated “sharp money”. Yes, that could be true. But he didn’t know. He had no idea. What if 80% of the tickets written on Buffalo were all from public money? That would have had the point spread going from -2 to -2.5 to -3. The exact same outcome as his “sharp money”  example. He wanted to be right but he had no clue.  There are counter tickets (public bets). There are betting apps (could be anyone). There’s the back room numbers where the actual dollars are added then sided and the numbers are adjusted. There’s a sector of huge offshore sports books where some of the biggest bets are made and are monitored by us. This is real informative. It follows the money. Not an ESPN opinion.  Another factor is the straight bets vs money line bets. The sports books don’t want to get sided so sometimes the lines move and other times they won’t change them if they’re in a favorable position.  Towards the end of the season, the point spread for that specific game must be calculated and measured against all the future bets the sports books have exposure.  In reality, the ESPN hosts that looks like he walked out of GQ is there for his look and speaking ability. Even if he’s played the game his opinions are slanted, taunted and not really his. The teleprompter queues the information entered and and loves to put in a “false narrative” that the Buffalo point spread is really moving. “Stay tuned after this word from Coors Beer, we’ll be right back.” And off to a commercial.  PS: You were part of their commercial; not for Vegas Inside Sharp Betting Information; but for SportsCenter much needed content.  If the information you demand is critical for your own pockets, come back to me all week long. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 09/06/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 06, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features action in MLB and the UEFA Champions League.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Mets travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET. Taijuan Walker takes the ball for the Mets to pitch against Mitch Keller for the Pirates. New York is a -215 money line road favorite, with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox at 6:40 PM ET. The Rays turn to Drew Rasmussen to pitch against the Red Sox’s Rich Hill. Tampa Bay is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:45 PM ET. Aaron Nola takes the hill for the Phillies to pitch against Jesus Luzardo for the Marlins. Philadelphia is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. New York plays at home against Minnesota on TBS, with the Yankees tapping Gerrit Cole to pitch against the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Yankees is a -195 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Toronto is at Baltimore with Mitch White pitching for the Blue Jays against Kyle Bradish for the Orioles. The Blue Jays are a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds at 7:40 PM ET. The Cubs turn to Wade Miley in their starting rotation to battle against the Reds’ Justin Dunn. Chicago is a -170 money line favorite. The St. Louis Cardinals are at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:45 PM ET. Jose Quintana takes the hill for the Cardinals to pitch against Paolo Espino for the Nationals. St. Louis is a -250 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Cleveland travels to Kansas City with the Guardians tapping Shane Bieber to pitch against the Royals’ Kris Bubic. The Guardians are a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Houston plays at home against Texas with Framber Valdez tapped to pitch for the Astros against Glenn Otto for the Rangers. The Astros are a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at Colorado against the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Brewers turn to Brandon Woodruff to pitch against the Rockies’ Chad Kohl. Milwaukee is a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 9:38 PM ET. Mike Mayers takes the ball for the Angels to duel against Eduardo Rodriguez for the Tigers. Los Angeles is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. San Diego hosts Arizona, with the Padres tapping Joe Musgrove to pitch against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. The Padres are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta visits Oakland with Kyle Wright taking the mound for the Braves to pitch against Cole Irvin for the A’s. The Braves are a -215 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Seattle is at home against Chicago, with the Mariners tapping Logan Gilbert to pitch against Johnny Cueto for the White Sox. The Mariners are a -150 money line with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the San Francisco Giants at 10:10 PM ET. Tyler Anderson takes the hill for the Dodgers against a starting pitcher that has yet to be named for the Giants. Matchday 1 in the UEFA Champions League has eight group stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Chelsea travels to Dinamo Zagreb as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Copenhagen as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. AC Milan plays at RB Salzburg as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Real Madrid visits Celtic as a -1 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. RB Leipzig hosts Shakhtar Donetsk as a -2 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Manchester City plays at Sevilla as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Paris Saint-Germain is at home against Juventus as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Benfica plays at home against Maccabi Haifa as a -2 goal line favorite with a total of 3. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games. 

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NCAAF Inside the Boxscores Week 1 (Part 1)

by Matt Fargo

Monday, Sep 05, 2022

Inside the Boxscores is a weekly feature from Matt Fargo that has been widely recognized as one of the best summations in college football. He takes an in-depth look at each game and pulls out the most pertinent information that will help you handicap games in the future. College football is filled with quirky plays, misleading scores and surprise endings. Fargo takes you inside the action. Oklahoma St. 58, Central Michigan 44Central Michigan outgained Oklahoma St. 546-531 but those overall numbers are skewed. The Cowboys dominated the first half and after opening the second half with a touchdown to take a commanding 51-15 lead, most of the starters left the field and the Chippewas put up late garbage points and numbers. Over the next seven possessions, Central Michigan scored four touchdowns that accumulated nearly half of its total yardage output while the Cowboys punted on six of their final seven drives not counting the last kneel down possession that ended the game. Oklahoma St. had the ball for over 12 minutes less and ran 15 fewer plays which gave it a 7.3 to 6.2 yard per play advantage. Pittsburgh 38, West Virginia 31Pittsburgh won a back and forth game thanks to a 56-yard interception return for a touchdown with 2:58 remaining. West Virginia had one last opportunity and drove down to the Panthers 28-yard line before turning it over on downs. The Mountaineers won the yardage battle 404-384 as each team dominated one aspect. West Virginia had 190 rushing on 33 carries (5.8 ypc) while the Panthers had just 76 yards rushing on 38 carries (2.0 ypc) but Pittsburgh threw for 308 yards (19.3 yards per completion) compared to the Mountaineers passing for 214 yards (9.3 yards per completion). Pittsburgh scored 14 points off two turnovers, the other being a fumble resulting in only a 35-yard drive. Tennessee 59, Ball St. 10It was all Tennessee from the start as the Volunteers scored on six of seven first half possessions and nine of its first 10 before calling off the troops in the fourth quarter. The Volunteers outgained Ball St. 569-343 and took advantage early as they jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead thanks to an interception on the first play of the game and two fourth down stops that led to three scoring drives totaling only 103 yards and Ball St. managed only 86 total yards on its first seven possessions. The Cardinals could not run the ball, gaining only 74 yards on 27 carries (2.7 ypc) and overall, it committed 12 penalties for 83 yards, four of which led to first downs. Tennessee was a perfect 7-7 inside the redzone. Missouri 52, Louisiana Tech 24Louisiana Tech had the only points in the first quarter on a 33-yard field goal and then Missouri woke up by scoring 21 unanswered points. The Tigers returned an interception for a touchdown and used a short field on the other two scoring drives that accumulated just 77 total yards. The Bulldogs responded with a one-play, 75-yard touchdown pass to cut the deficit to 11 points but then Missouri tacked on 17 straight points to pull away. The Tigers outgained Louisiana Tech 558-344 with the rushing game being the difference as they had 323 yards on the ground on 50 carries (6.5 ypc) while holding the Bulldogs to eight yards rushing on 22 carries (0.4 ypc). Missouri did commit 10 penalties for 100 yards. Penn St. 35, Purdue 31The numbers were very even in this back and forth game that came down to the final minute. Penn St. built a 21-10 halftime lead that was culminated by a recovered fumble with 30 seconds remaining and turned it into a two-play, 82-yard touchdown drive in 28 seconds. Purdue came out of the second half and scored on two long touchdown drives to retake the lead while Penn St. went ahead again early in the fourth quarter. The Nittany Lions had a chance to make it a two-possession game but Purdue intercepted a pass for a 75-yard touchdown to take another lead but Penn St. was able to get the ball one last time with 2:22 left and went 80 yards on eight plays for the game-winning score. Minnesota 38, New Mexico St. 0The Golden Gophers completely dominated this game as they outgained New Mexico St. 485-91 while winning the first downs 31-6 and taking the time of possession by 29 minutes. Minnesota scored on its first six possessions which were all 59 yards or more and it did not punt until there was less than five minutes remaining in the game. Over half of the Aggies yards came on one possession in the third quarter as they went 54 yards but it resulted in an interception, the only time the whole game they crossed midfield. The Gophers were efficient in all aspects as they dominated the ground game (5.2 ypc to 1.8 ypc), completed 70 percent of their passes while allowing only 33 percent and went 11-14 on third down. Michigan St. 35, Western Michigan 13Michigan St. outgained the Broncos 430-334 but this game was still up for grabs late in the fourth quarter. Western Michigan fell behind 21-3 at halftime but was able to score 10 points in the third quarter to make it a one possession game and got the ball back early in the fourth quarter but were forced to punt and Michigan St. went 91 yards on eight plays to make it a 15-point game. The Spartans then made a fourth down stop near midfield and scored on a 43-yard touchdown pass to ice the game. Western Michigan won the time of possession by close to 15 minutes which resulted in 17 more plays yet overall managed just 4.6 yards per play compared to 7.7 yards per play for Michigan St. Old Dominion 20, Virginia Tech 17Points were a premium as both teams made crucial mistakes but it was Virginia Tech that stumbled too much. The Hokies jumped ahead 7-0 early in the first quarter and after three punts to open the game, Old Dominion picked off a pass which led to a field goal and then two possessions after that, the Monarchs returned a fumble 25 yards for a touchdown to take a lead into halftime. The Hokies responded with 10 third quarter points, the touchdown coming by way of a fumble recovery at the Old Dominion 10-yard line and scoring three plays later. The Monarchs went 74 yards on nine plays for the game winning touchdown with 33 seconds left. The Hokies had five turnovers while committing 15 penalties. Duke 30, Temple 0This game was never in doubt as Duke outgained Temple 500-199 and the scoring margin could have been a lot bigger as the Blue Devils were just 1-9 on third down which led to six field goal attempts that resulted in three makes and three misses. Duke was very efficient in the passing game, offensively going 24-30 for 328 yards and a 13.7 average completion rate while on defense, it allowed under 50 percent completions for 114 yards and 3.9 yards per attempt. Temple managed only 65 yards rushing on 29 carries (2.2 ypc) but somehow managed six rushing first downs, half of its overall total. The Owls did not cross midfield until the second half as they had just 35 total yards in the first half. Indiana 23, Illinois 20Illinois outgained Indiana 448-362, had nine more first downs and controlled the clock for over 13 more minutes but had four turnovers. After falling behind 16-10 at halftime, the Illini intercepted a pass two plays into the second half that turned into the go ahead touchdown. They made it a four-point game late in the fourth quarter and after holding the Hoosiers to 85 total yards on their first six second half possessions, Indiana went 75 yards in 12 plays to score the game winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining. The Illinois offense sputtered late as it got into Indiana territory on four straight possessions but resulted in just one field goal as it had a fumble, and interception and a turnover on downs at the Indiana four-yard line. TCU 38, Colorado 13Colorado dominated the first half as it outgained the Horned Frogs 197-62 but it could manage only two field goals in five possessions as it turned it over on downs twice. The Buffaloes trailed 7-6 at the half as the lone TCU score came on a 60-yard punt return touchdown but then TCU took over. The Horned Frogs scored on their first five second half possessions, racking up 323 yards on those drives while the defense allowed 71 yards on the first four Colorado possessions of the half before the Buffaloes went 75 yards on eight plays for a garbage touchdown with just over a minute left. TCU did not have to throw much as it ran at will with 275 yards rushing on 30 carries (9.2 ypc) and overall averaged 7.8 yards per play. Ole Miss 28, Troy 10Mississippi jumped ahead 21-0 as Troy could get nothing going on offense as it managed only 59 total yards on its first five possessions before going 47 yards in its final first half drive that resulted in a field goal. The second half was bad for both teams as the Rebels scored a touchdown to open the half but their next five possessions ended with three turnovers and two punts while gaining only 57 yards. The Trojans had more production as they had six drives that totaled 220 yards but scored only one touchdown as they had a fumble, an interception and turned it over on downs three times. The Rebels had 266 yards rushing on 44 carries (6.0 ypc) while holding Troy to 60 yards on 33 carries (1.8 ypc). North Carolina 63, Appalachian St. 61The wildest game of the weekend took place here as exactly half of the 124 points were scored in the fourth quarter. Appalachian St. jumped ahead first and took a 21-7 lead early in the second quarter before North Carolina ran off 34 consecutive points to take a 20-point lead heading into the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers rallied. They scored touchdowns on all five possessions in the quarter and had a chance to take the lead with 31 seconds left after a touchdown but missed the two-point conversion. That forced an onsides kick which the Tar Heels ran in for a touchdown but the Mountaineers responded again with a quick score but failed another two-point try to tie. Appalachian St. won the yardage battle 649-567. Rutgers 22, Boston College 21Boston College led pretty much throughout as it scored the first touchdown and had a 21-12 lead midway through the third quarter before Rutgers made it a one possession game with a field goal to end the quarter. The Eagles were able to get the ball two more times in the fourth quarter but were forced to punt both times after gaining only two total yards. After the first punt, the Scarlet Knights got the ball at their own four-yard line and were able to go 96 yards in 12 plays for the go ahead touchdown. Boston College was forced to punt the second time from its own 10-yard line with 1:51 left and never got it back. Rutgers had 212 yards rushing (5.0 ypc) and Boston College managed just 29 yards rushing (1.0 ypc). NC State 21, East Carolina 20East Carolina threw an interception on its second play of the game but the defense forced a three and out and the offense recovered by going 70 yards on seven played to take the 7-0 lead. The NC State defense took over by forcing five punts, one blocked for a touchdown, and grabbing another interception on the next six Pirates drives to close the first half while the offense had two long drives to take a two-touchdown lead. Then it was the East Carolina defense that held its own as it did not allow a second half point and in five possessions, forced two punts, had an interception, recovered a fumble at the one-yard line and had a fourth down stop at the three-yard line. East Carolina missed an extra point and a game winning field goal with nine seconds left. Maryland 31, Buffalo 10Maryland outgained Buffalo 446-268 despite running 12 fewer plays as it nearly doubled up the Bulls in yards per play at 7.3 to 3.7. Buffalo did have more first downs (18-16) with half of those coming via the rush despite gaining only 108 yards on 38 carries (2.8 ypc). The Terrapins offense was inconsistent as they had three touchdown drives of 75 yards or more but also punted five times including four three and outs and additionally turned it over on downs and had an interception. The defense was much better as it did allow a 75-yard touchdown drive and an 85-yard field goal drive but forced seven punts where they allowed only 19 total net yards and Buffalo was just 5-18 on third and fourth down combined. Michigan 51, Colorado St. 7This game was never in doubt thanks to the Michigan defense that did not allow the Rams to cross midfield until late in the third quarter and allowed only 97 total yard up to that point. Colorado St. did generate 122 yards in garbage time where it managed its only score and while the Wolverines offense did score 51 points, scoring on eight of 10 possessions, they only had 440 total yards and a lot of those came late when the game was already decided as 190 yards were on their final three possessions. Michigan was forced into three field goals and finished the day just 3-10 on third down attempts as it struggled in long down spots. The running game was fine though as the Wolverines had 234 yards rushing on 40 carries (5.9 ypc). UCLA 45, Bowling Green 17The setting was ideal for Bowling Green as UCLA had no home field edge with a morning start and no fans and the Broncos took advantage early as they blocked an opening punt for a touchdown and built a 17-7 lead early in the second quarter until the Bruins took over. After that opening block debacle, UCLA got into Bowling Green territory on its last 13 possessions although it did score only seven times as it missed two field goals, threw an interception and turned it over on downs. Still, the Bruins outgained Bowling Green 626-162 so they did dominate overall, especially on the ground where they had 269 yards rushing on 45 carries (6.0 ypc) compared to 37 yards rushing on 25 carries (1.5 ypc) for the Falcons. Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 24Arkansas built two-touchdown leads on three separate occasions but the game was not decided until late. Cincinnati cut those leads to a touchdown each time as it put together scoring drives of 75, 71 and 75 yards, the last coming with 5:49 left which was plenty of time to get the ball back. The Razorbacks were able to pick up three first downs, two on third down conversions, and ran out the clock. Despite never holding a lead, Cincinnati was only outgained 447-427, had one more first down, 24-23, and held the ball longer but could not convert early in the game. The Bearcats were inside the Arkansas 30-yard line three times but missed two field goals and threw an interception which played into the first half shutout. Georgia 49, Oregon 3The Bulldogs started right where they left off as they outgained Oregon 571-313 with both sides executing nearly flawless. Offensively, the passing was outstanding with 439 yards on 14.6 yards per completion and while they rushed for only 132 yards, they did so at a 5.3 ypc clip. The defense was every much as impressive as Georgia nearly pitched a shutout with a bend and do not break result, allowing Oregon into the redzone only twice after allowing a combined 145 yards in over 13 minutes but giving up just the field goal and stopping the Ducks on fourth down at the two-yard line. Overall, the Bulldogs doubled up Oregon in yards per play at 9.2 to 4.6 and the one real negative was seven penalties for 75 yards. Oklahoma 45, UTEP 13Any doubts on Oklahoma were put to rest early as the Sooners took the opening kickoff 75 yards in five plays for a touchdown and overall, they scored three touchdowns on three first quarter possessions totaling 223 yards of offense. UTEP did score the next 10 points but Oklahoma took over again with 21 unanswered points before they traded fourth quarter field goals. As expected, the Sooners dominated on the ground, rushing for 259 yards on 38 carries (6.8 ypc) while holding the Miners to 28 yards rushing on 31 carries (0.9 ypc). Oklahoma was outpassed 288-233 but UTEP had over double the attempts and the Sooners had a big edge in completion average at 15.5 to 9.3 while throwing two touchdowns and allowing none. Arizona 38, San Diego St. 20Arizona jumped out an early 10-0 lead and increased that to 24-10 at halftime as it scored on four of six possessions but did commit two turnovers on the other two drives. The Wildcats took the opening kickoff of the second half 75 yards in five plays to increase the lead to 21 points and coasted the rest of the way. The only other San Diego St. touchdown came on an Arizona punt that was kicked into a lineman and picked up by the Aztecs for a touchdown. The Wildcats outgained San Diego St. 461-232 and had the first down edge 25-14 as the rushing yards were almost identical at 170-162 favoring San Diego St. but Arizona held the Aztecs to just 62 yards through the air on a mere seven completions. Houston 37, UTSA 35Houston escaped UTSA in triple overtime despite getting outgained 441-346 yet it held nearly an 11-minute advantage in time of possession. After a scoreless first quarter, the Cougars stopped UTSA on fourth down on its own 42-yard line and went 58 yards on 11 plays to take the 7-0 lead before the Roadrunners scored three consecutive touchdowns to take a 21-7 lead into the fourth quarter. Houston took its first possession 75 yards for a touchdown and then picked off a pass and scored one play later to tie the game. The Cougars forced a punt and drove 77 yards while taking up over 10 minutes and took the lead on a field goal with 23 seconds left but UTSA went 55 yards to send it to overtime with a tying field goal. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, and CFL Previews and Odds - 09/05/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 05, 2022

The Monday Labor Day sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and CFL action.Week 1 of the college football season concludes with one game involving FBS opponents. Clemson plays Georgia Tech at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Tigers are a 23.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 51 (all odds from DraftKings).Major League Baseball has 13 games on its schedule. The New York Mets play at Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 12:35 PM ET. Taijuan Walker gets the ball for the Mets to pitch against Mitch Keller for the Pirates. New York is a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:05 PM ET. Toronto is at Baltimore in the first game of their doubleheader, with the Blue Jays turning to Kevin Gausman to pitch against an Orioles starting pitcher yet to be determined. New York plays at home against Minnesota with Jameson Taillon on the mound for the Yankees against Chris Archer for the Twins. The Yankees are a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. Toronto sends out Jose Berrios to pitch against a Baltimore starting pitcher yet to be named for the second game of their doubleheader at 4:05 PM ET. Two more MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. Milwaukee travels to Colorado with the Brewers tapping Freddie Peralta to pitch against the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner. Milwaukee is a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11. Boston plays at Tampa Bay with Michael Wacha pitching for the Red Sox against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Rays. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals at 4:15 PM ET. The Cardinals turn to Jack Flaherty to pitch against the Nationals’ Anibal Sanchez. St. Louis is a -255 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 6:40 PM ET. Seattle is at home against Chicago, with Marco Gonzales pitching for the Mariners against Lance Lynn for the White Sox. The Mariners are a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Arizona plays at San Diego with the Diamondbacks tapping Kyle Nelson to pitch against the Padres’ Blake Snell. The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers at 7:10 PM ET. Hunter Brown pitches for the Astros against Martin Perez for the Rangers. Houston is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Cleveland Guardians visit Kansas City to play the Royals at 8:10 PM ET. The Guardians send Triston McKenzie to the hill to pitch against the Royals’ Brady Singer. Cleveland is a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 9:38 PM ET. Jose Suarez takes the ball for the Angels against Tyler Alexander for the Tigers. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 10:10 PM ET. The Dodgers tap Andrew Heaney to battle against the Giants’ Logan Webb. Los Angles is a -195 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Week 13 in the Canadian Football League concludes with two games. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats play at home against the Toronto Argonauts at 1 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Calgary Stampeders host the Edmonton Eskimos at 4:30 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 04, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action.Week 1 of the college football season continues with one game involving FBS opponents. LSU hosts Florida State on ABC as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET. Ross Stripling takes the hill for the Blue Jays against J.T. Brubaker for the Pirates. Toronto is a -210 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds host the Colorado Rockies in the first game of their doubleheader at 12:10 PM ET. The Reds turn to Nick Lodolo in their starting rotation to pitch against the Rockies’ German Marquez. Cincinnati is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 8. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Baltimore plays at home against Oakland, with Spenser Watkins pitching for the Orioles against Adrian Martinez for the A’s. The Orioles are a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston is at home against Texas with the Rangers pitching Dane Dunning against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Red Sox. The Red Sox are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Atlanta hosts Miami with Max Fried on the mound for the Braves pitching against Pedro Lopez for the Marlins. The Braves are a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Three MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. New York plays at Toronto with the Yankees tapping Frankie Montas to pitch against the Blue Jays’ Shaun Armstrong. The Yankees are a -120 money line road favorite at Caesars with an over/under of 7. Detroit plays at home against Kansas City with Matt Manning pitching for the Tigers against the Royals’ Maximo Castillo. The Tigers are a -120 money line favorite with a total of 8. New York is at home against the Washington with the Mets pitching Carlos Carrasco against the Nationals’ Erick Fedde -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins at 2:10 PM ET. The White Sox pitch Johnny Cueto against Twins’ Dylan Bundy. Chicago is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. St. Louis host the Chicago Cubs at 2:15 PM ET. Miles Mikolas take the mound for the Cardinals to pitch against Marcus Stroman for the Cubs. St. Louis is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners visit the Cleveland Guardians at 2:40 PM ET. The Mariners tap George Kirby to pitch against the Guardians’ Cal Quantrill. Seattle is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Colorado Rockies travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 3:10 on the night cap of their doubleheader. Jose Urena takes the ball for the Rockies to pitch against Chase Anderson for the Reds. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. The San Francisco Giants are at home against the Philadelphia Phillies with the Padres turning to Carlos Rodon in their starting rotation to pitch against the Phillies Ranger Suarez. San Francisco is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Houston Astros visit the Los Angeles Angels at 4:07 PM ET. Jose Urquidy pitches for the Astros against Tucker Davidson for the Angels. Houston is a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers at 4:10 PM ET. The Diamondbacks turn to Zac Gallen in their starting rotation to pitch against the Brewers’  Jason Alexander. Arizona is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.MLB Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the Los Angeles Dodgers playing against the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers tap Ryan Period to pitch against the Padres’ Mike Clevinger. Los Angeles is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.Week 13 in the Canadian Football continues with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers play at Saskatchewan against the Roughriders at 6 PM ET. The Blue Bombers are a 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 44.5. Matchweek 6 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches on the USA Network. Brighton and Hove Albion are at home against Leicester City as a -0.5 goal line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 2.5. Arsenal plays at Manchester United at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em contest with a total of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 03, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and EPL action.Week 1 of the college football season continues with 33 games involving FBS opponents. Two games on national television kick off at Noon ET. Michigan hosts Colorado State on ABC as a 30.5-point favorite with the total set at 61 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Appalachian State plays at home against North Carolina on ESPNU as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5. Six more televised NCAAF games start at 3:30 PM ET. Tulsa travels to Wyoming on FS1 as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5. Arkansas plays at home against Cincinnati on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Houston visits UTSA on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 62. San Diego State is at home against Arizona on CBS as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Georgia plays in Atlanta against Oregon on ABC as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 54. Oklahoma hosts UTEP on Fox as a 30-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. BYU plays at South Florida on ESPNU at 4 PM ET as a 12-point road favorite with a total of 58.5. Utah plays at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Three more NCAAF games on national television begin at 7:30 PM ET. SMU travels to North Texas on the CBS Sports Network as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 67.5. Mississippi State is at home against Memphis on ESPNU as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. Ohio State hosts Notre Dame on ABC at 7:30 PM ET as a 16-point favorite with a total of 59.Oregon State plays at home against Boise State on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56. Washington is at home against Kent State on FS1 as a 23-point favorite with a total of 60. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Francisco to play the Giants as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Texas Rangers. Two more MLB games start at 6:10 PM ET. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -115 money line favored with a total of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays play at Pittsburgh against the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite at Caesars with a total of 8. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles host the Oakland A’s at 7:05 PM ET as a -220 money line favorite at Caesars with a total of 8. The New York Mets play at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:10 PM ET as a -425 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.Three MLB games begin at 7:15 PM ET. The St. Louis Cardinals are at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Fox’s regional coverage features two games. The Seattle Mariners play at Cleveland against the Guardians as a -160 money line road favorite at Caesars with an over/under of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:20 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Arizona to play the Diamondbacks at 8;10 PM ET as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Houston Astros as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres at 9:10 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 6 in the English Premier League has eight matches. Liverpool visits Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.5 goal line road favorite (all soccer odds from BetMGM) with a total of 3. Six matches start at 10 AM, including Brentford playing at home against Leeds United on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City is at Aston Villa on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. 

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NFL Football Futures Bet: Buffalo Bills to Win 2023 Super Bowl

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Sep 03, 2022

The NFL season will kick off in five days, so I'm back with my crystal ball to forecast which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.  Last year was not a good one for me in this Super Bowl futures department, as I had the Baltimore Ravens to win the 2022 championship.  Unfortunately, the Ravens would suffer injury-after-injury, including losses to their entire backfield.  Although they got off to an 8-3 record -- good enough for the top spot in the AFC -- they lost their last six games of the season, primarily due to QB Lamar Jackson's late-season injury which caused him to miss the final four games.  The experience of the Ravens last season should serve as a reminder that futures bets are awfully hard.  Yes, it's true that I've had spectacular success on my futures bets over the years.  But the fact remains that long-term bets are often spoiled by injuries.  Still, that won't deter me from pulling the trigger on a team this season, and I'm going with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  Currently, the Bills are +650 at PointsBet, and I think all the pieces are in place for Buffalo to finally break through to win its first championship.  Indeed, Buffalo was (in my opinion) the best team in the NFL last year.  Unfortunately, it left 13 seconds too many on the clock after it seemingly scored the game-winning TD against Kansas City.  Patrick Mahomes took advantage, and pulled a rabbit out of his hat for the Chiefs to tie the game.  And then KC proceeded to win in overtime, with Allen never touching the ball again.  One good thing did come out of that defeat, and that was the NFL changing its overtime rule for Playoff games.  Now, both teams will get at least one possession.However, the playoff format introduced last season will continue, and that is a key reason why I like Buffalo.  Now, only two teams in the league get an all-important bye into the quarterfinals.  So, it's critical to earn the #1 seed in the AFC and NFC conferences to reduce the number of games needed to win from four to just three.Buffalo has the decided advantage going into the season because it will enjoy an easier schedule than its biggest rival, Kansas City.  The Chiefs play in perhaps the most difficult division in football, and have to play the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders twice each.  In contrast, Buffalo's division rivals are the New York Jets, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.  And that's a key reason why Buffalo's Season Wins total has been posted at 11.5 wins, while Kansas City's is lower, at 10.5 wins.  If the Bills can snag the #1 seed, they'll surely be difficult to defeat at Highmark Stadium in the Playoffs, as they're 16-4 SU at home, and 12-6-2 ATS the past two seasons.  And they're 12-1 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs since 1981.  With last year's hard lesson always fresh in their mind, this post-season, the Bills won't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Instead, I expect them to not leave any room for error (not even 13 seconds), and believe they'll absolutely steamroll their opponents.  Take the Bills at +650 to win the 2023 Super Bowl. Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, EPL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 09/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Sep 02, 2022

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and EPL action.Week 1 of the college football season continues with five games involving FBS opponents. Two games kick off at 7 PM ET. Virginia Tech travels to Old Dominion on ESPNU as a 6.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 48 (all odds from DraftKings). Michigan State plays at home against Western Michigan on ESPN2 as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Duke hosts Temple at 7:30 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 51. Indiana is at home against Illinois on FS1 as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 47. TCU plays at Colorado on ESPN as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 59.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -245 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 6:40 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Oakland A’s at 7:05 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Five MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners visit Cleveland to play the Guardians as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Detroit Tigers host the Kansas City Royals, with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets play at home against the Washington Nationals as a -260 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Texas Rangers as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:20 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Minnesota Twins play at Chicago against the White Sox at 8:10 PM ET as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs at 8:15 PM ET as a -245 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the San Diego Padres at 10:10 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. The San Francisco Giants host the Philadelphia Phillies at 10:15 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Week 13 of the Canadian Football League begins with Montreal playing at home against Ottawa at 7:30 PM ET. The Alouettes are a 4-point favorite with a total of 49.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 01, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and EPL action.Week 1 of the college football season kicks off with six games involving FBS opponents. Three games start at 7 PM ET. Tennessee hosts Ball State as a 35.5-point favorite, with the total set at 66.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Pittsburgh plays at home against West Virginia on ESPN as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Oklahoma State is at home against Central Michigan on FS1 as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 58.Two more NCAAF games begin at 8 PM  ET. Penn State travels to Purdue on Fox as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 53. Missouri plays at home against Louisiana Tech on ESPNU as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 61.5. Minnesota hosts New Mexico State at 9 PM ET as a 36.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. The Seattle Mariners visit the Detroit Tigers at 1:10 PM ET. Logan Gilbert takes the ball for the Mariners against Eduardo Rodriguez for the Tigers. Seattle is a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 2:10 PM ET. The White Sox turn to Johnny Cueto in their starting rotation to pitch against the Royals’ Daniel Mengden. Chicago is a -225 money line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. The Washington Nationals host the Oakland A’s at 4:05 PM ET. Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals against Ken Waldichuk who got called up from the minors to get the start. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at New York against the Mets at 4:10 PM ET. The Dodgers tap Clayton Kershaw to battle against the Mets’ Chris Bassitt. Los Angeles is a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 6:10 PM ET. Shane Bieber takes the hill for the Guardians to pitch against Kyle Bradish for the Orioles. Cleveland is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Texas Rangers at 7:10 PM ET. The Red Sox tap Rich Hill to pitch against the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. Boston is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies at 7:20 PM ET. Spencer Strider takes the ball for the Braves to pitch against Chad Kuhl for the Rockies. Atlanta is a -390 money line favorite with a total of 8. The MLB card finishes at 9:40 PM ET with the Milwaukee Brewers playing at Arizona against the Diamondbacks. The Brewers send Brandon Woodruff to the mound to duel against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. Milwaukee is a -135 money line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 7.5. Matchweek 5 in the English Premier League concludes with Manchester United visiting Leicester City on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. The Red Devils are a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. 

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Pacific Classic Stakes Preview

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Sep 01, 2022

Ninety five percent of people who watch at least one horse race during the year are the casual sports fans who turn it on for the first Saturday in May (the Kentucky Derby).  It's a real shame that this weekend those same folks won't be tuned in to see the Pacific Classic Stakes, race # 9 at Del Mar Race track, because they would potentially be witnessing one of the greatest athletes in the country today -- equine or otherwise.  Race fans have longed for another Secretariat, Forego, John Henry, Zenyatta, etc. and we may finally have one in the four-year-son of Tapit named Flightline.  Below, we'll dig deeper into this freak of nature as well as some of the others in Saturday evening's big race -- which is basically the West Coast version of the Travers Stakes.  Contenders:  #5 Flightline.  This John Sadler-trained superstar is undefeated in four career starts.  He was not part of the Triple Crown series last year when he was a 3 YO because Flightline was a little slower to develop, but once he went to the track, he could not be stopped.  Nobody has really come close to beating him and it seems as though every subsequent race is more impressive than the last.  But Flightline is not without his doubters.  The main argument that he's not a sure thing today is the fact that all of his races have been at a distance of 8 furlongs (one mile) or shorter and he has never been around two turns in a race.  Against this group, it may not matter.  Regular rider Flavien Prat will be aboard for Sadler who won the Breeders Cup Classic a few years ago with Accelerate.  If he's successful today, that same Breeders Cup Classic (at the same distance as today) in November is likely next for this star. #2 Country Grammar.  The only other horse in the field who appears to be even a slight threat to Flightline is this Bob Baffert-trained son of Tonalist.  While Flightline is a 4 YO with four races, Country Grammar is a year older and has raced 11 times and earned over $10 Million.  An afterthought after finishing 5th in the Travers as a 3 YO, Country Grammar came around in his four-year-old season, finishing first in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita and second in the Californian (also at Santa Anita).  He has been even better this year with second place finishes in the San Diego Handicap and $20 Million Saudi Cup and a victory in the Dubai World Cup.  Where Flightline has some question marks on being able to get the 1 1/4 mile distance today, there are no such concerns with Country Grammar who has done it multiple times already.  Johnny Velasquez comes in from New York to take the ride.  Clearly the second choice and if Flightline fades, this one is your logical winner. Live Longshot:   #4 Express Train.  While there is likely no other winner of this race besides the two already mentioned, this son of Union Rags offers an intriguing choice underneath in the exactas.  John Sherrifs of Zenyatta fame trains Express Train who has been on quite a roll lately.  Since finishing 6th in this race last year, Express Train has three firsts, one second, and one third in his five races, all at Santa Anita.  He has a very nice record at this track however, with three wins and one second-place finish in five starts at Del Mar.  Express Train is 12-1 on the morning line and with two losses to #6 Stilleto Boy (20-1) on his resume, don't be surprised if he goes up from there before post time.  Regular rider Victor Espinoza climbs back aboard.  Use him underneath Flightline and Country Grammar.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie 

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Two Heisman Trophy Long Shot Bets (that both play on Thursday night)!

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022

Call it the Island of Misfit Toys Bowl on the first Thursday night of the college football season when West Virginia travels to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh. Both these programs decided to turn to the transfer window in the offseason to help address the graduation of multi-year starting quarterbacks. And both of these quarterbacks were not only highly touted recruits coming out of high school, but both were once teammates together at USC. Both quarterbacks eventually decided to transfer amidst the chaos that has been the Trojans program under head coach Clay Helton the last few seasons. And both of these quarterbacks offer Long Shot odds at 200-1 to win the Heisman Trophy this year with their new team. Fourth-year head coach Neal Brown announced earlier this week that J.T. Daniels has won the job to be the Mountaineers' starting quarterback. It has been a bumpy journey for the former five-star recruit who began his college career in Los Angeles before a pit stop in Athens, Georgia before settling down now in Morgantown, West Virginia. Daniels graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back and he entered his sophomore season in a competition with Jack Sears, a redshirt sophomore who played well in his absence and thrived during spring practice. Daniels attended just 24 passes in 2019 before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the Trojans’ opening game against Fresno State. The injury created the opportunity for freshman Kedon Slovis to take over running the offense after winning the backup job. Slovis went on to complete 282 of 392 passes for 3502 yards with 30 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. With the highest completion percentage by a freshman of 71.9% in the history of NCAA football, Slovis cemented his place as the team’s starting moving forward. Both Daniels and Sears saw the writing on the wall and entered the transfer portal in the offseason. While Sears moved on to Boise State the next season, Daniels aimed higher by enrolling at the University of Georgia for the 2020 season as a redshirt sophomore. Coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. But when the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many expected Daniels to be the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season — and Smart tapped him as his first-string quarterback in their opening game showdown with Clemson. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. He also had an interception. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. Back at USC, Slovis followed up his freshman season by completing 177 of his 264 passes for 1921 yards with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But the Trojans disappointed their fans with an 8-4 record. He returned for his junior season in 2021 with the hopes of building off the promise of his freshman season — but he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart as the program looked to the future. When USC lured head coach Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma and he brought his star sophomore quarterback with him, Caleb Williams, the writing was on the wall. Slovis transferred to Pittsburgh to fill the shoes of a five-year starter, Kenny Pickett. With wide receiver Jordan Addison transferring to USC, he may not have the weapons needed to put up Heisman numbers. The Panthers also have a new offensive coordinator in Frank Cignetti, Jr. who has serious run-first tendencies from his time in the NFL as the offensive coordinator for the St. Louis Rams under head coach Jeff Fisher. But Slovis remains a senior with a career completion percentage of 68.3% with 58 touchdown passes in his three seasons. Pittsburgh was a team that scored 41.4 PPG and generated 486.6 total YPG last season — ranking 3rd and 5th in the nation. Slovis certainly had a better pedigree to challenge for a Heisman Trophy before Picket’s surprising campaign last year.Daniels may offer an even more intriguing case playing for West Virginia. He gets reunited with Graham Harrell as his offensive coordinator. Although Harrell’s first season as offensive coordinator at USC was the same year that Daniels got injured in the first game, there is already familiarity. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football — and head coach Neal Brown needs to make a splash with him firmly on the hot seat with a 17-18 record with the Mountaineers. Daniels has three returning starters at wide receiver to work with along with the benefit of an offensive line that returns all five starters. As of Monday when I visited the Westgate, both Daniels and Slovis were at 200-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy — the same odds as Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. With Alabama quarterback Bryce Young the favorite at 4-1 odds to repeat as the Heisman winner, this field seems wide open to me. Many bettors will prefer Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud or Williams at USC with Riley — but at 9-4 and 7-1 odds as of Monday at the Westgate, those are underlay values. On the other hand, I threw fliers on both Daniels and Slovis at 200-1 odds. In new environments and diminished expectations, both veteran quarterbacks could put up huge numbers while getting the benefit of the east coast media machine. They both have two mighty big chips on their shoulder after being cast away by USC. And they both get to make a strong initial impression on ESPN on Thursday night in front of a national audience. Best of luck — Frank.

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Kill Your Darlings: NFL Handicapping and Roster Realities

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Aug 31, 2022

When one attends film school to study screenwriting, it is all but inevitable that a professor will exclaim to a room of would-be writers that for success that they must be willing to “kill your darlings.” It has become a subject of folklore as to who first delivered this phrase. Stephen King has been quoted: “Kill your darlings, kill your darlings, even when it breaks your egocentric little scribbler’s heart, kill your darlings.” William Faulkner is supposed to have proclaimed: “In writing, you must kill all your darlings.” Scholars go back to 1914 when Arthur Quiller-Couch used the phrase “murder your darlings” when advising on writing style. The lesson coming from these writers is that one must beholden to a higher truth even if it comes at the expense of particular thoughts and ideas that one fancies. For the writer, there may be certain scenes or lines of dialogue that they find particularly clever — but that does not mean that the audience will share that sentiment. In the editing process, as final decisions are being made, the successful writer must be willing to be a harsh critic and remove these extraneous elements. Sports handicappers go through a similar process. We all have brewing ideas about how good or bad teams will be in the new NFL season. “Denver is a Super Bowl contender now that they have Russell Wilson under center!” Or, “New England is a mess since they do not even have an official offensive coordinator.” Things like this are interesting thoughts in the month of August. But successful handicappers must be willing to kill these darlings when looking at the specific circumstances of the game at hand — and then filter those thoughts with the actual point spread and total that have been assigned for that.Actual rosters — not the imagined ones in August — remain fluid even as the month turns to September. The 32 NFL teams cut down their rosters to 53 players on Tuesday. Teams have been scouring the waiver wire ever since looking for upgrades. Many teams' quarterbacks' rooms have completely changed. Some teams have picked up players in the last 24 hours will get significant playing time for them in Week One. The assumptions of August often get crushed by specific situations of September. Take the state of affairs regarding injuries, all coming from Pat Kirwan from his Moving the Chains afternoon show on Sirius NFL Radio. As of August 30th, there are 120 players on the Injured List. Feeling bullish this season about the Las Vegas Raiders? They lead the NFL with eight players already on their Injured List. There are another 29 players on the PUP list. Seven players are suspended. Another seven players are out due to non-football-related injuries. Thirty-three other players were waived because of injury. In all, 182 players are unavailable from that list -- a rough average of four-to-five per NFL team. The NFL will also have more rookies playing than ever before. More numbers from Kirwan, a former general manager for the New York Jets: 30 of the 32 1st round draft picks made teams as of Tuesday; 27 of the 32 picks from the 2nd round are on active rosters; 39 of 31 from the 3rd round; 37 of 38 from the 4th round; 31 of 36 from the 5th round; 26 of 43 from the 6th round; 26 of 41 from the 7th round. NFL teams have also signed 53 undrafted college free agents who made one of the 32 rosters. Kirwan put the previous average of undrafted free agents who make initial 53-man rosters in the 38-40 range. It is interesting that the 53 undrafted free agents that made rosters are more than the 52 players drafted in Rounds Six and Seven who made rosters. In total, 16.8% of the rosters after Tuesday’s cut-down deadline comprise of rookies. Maybe these rookies — and the injuries — will not impact that “sleeper” team who have fallen in love with this offseason. But to have consistent success this season in the NFL, when it comes to your initial thoughts in the preseason about how teams will fare, you better be willing to kill your darlings. Best of luck — Frank. 

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