For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. AIR FORCE: Can the Falcons continue their level of excellence after winning ten games for the third straight time in a full season (excluding the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign)? This team has two-straight 10-3 seasons under head coach Troy Calhoun in his now 17th year with the program. The Falcons led the nation by holding their opponents to just 254.4. total YPG. Eight starters return from that unit along with nine of the thirteen players who logged in 250 or more snaps. Five starters are back on offense but they are replacing three-year starting quarterback Haaziq Daniels who expertly executed their “flexbone option” offense. APPALACHIAN STATE: Was the third season under head coach Shawn Clark a bump in the road or the first signs indicating a decline in the program? After inheriting an experienced team that finished 13-1 in 2019, the Mountaineers won 19 games in his first two seasons. But after a 6-6 campaign last year, they failed to finish over .500 for the first time since 2013. On the positive side, they did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +49 net YPG. A 2-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession held them back from reaching a bowl game. But only four of their wins were against FBS programs with two of their victories being against FCS programs. With only 11 starters returning with a hole at quarterback after two-year starter Chase Bryce graduated, the Mountaineers have their lowest returning production since the Scott Satterfield era back in 2018.ARIZONA: After a two-year stretch where they went a dismal 1-16, the Wildcats improved to 5-7 last season in their second year under head coach Jedd Fisch. Arizona did win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession, but they clearly took a step in the right direction, even if they were fortunate to pull out all three of those games. Eleven starters are back from that team, including eight on offense, headlined by junior quarterback Jayden de Laura. The Wildcats ranked 20th in the nation by generating 461.9 total Yards-Per-Game. The former Washington State transfer passed for 3685 yards last season, which was the third-most in program history. He threw 25 touchdown passes, but he needs to cut down on his turnovers after throwing 13 interceptions and losing another four fumbles. Three starters are back at wide receiver and tight end, but the offense did lose wide receiver Dorian Singer in the transfer portal to USC. All five starters return on the offensive line. The other side of the ball remains a work in progress. Arizona surrendered 467.7 total YPG, which resulted in 36.5 Points-Per-Game, ranking 124th and 125th in the FBS. Only three starters are back from that group, with the top tacklers from last year’s unit all moving on. Fisch did add seven defensive players in the transfer portal. In their seven losses, the Wildcats gave up 43.9 PPG — so improvement on that side of the ball seems necessary for this team to qualify for a bowl game. CALIFORNIA: Will head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal lead to the results on the field that will get him off the hot seat in his seventh year with the program? Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. EAST CAROLINA: After six straight losing seasons, the Pirates have a 15-10 record in the last two years after they followed up their 7-5 record last year with an 8-5 mark in 2022. Their 53-29 victory against Coastal Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl was their first postseason win since 2013 (and their first bowl game since 2015). Is this the new normal in the fifth season under head coach Mike Houston — or is the program likely to take a step back? They return only ten starters with both sides of the ball hit hard with attrition. The offensive ranks 130th in the FBS by returning just 16% of its offensive yardage production from last year — and they are replacing four-year starting quarterback Holton Ahlers. The defense has six starters back from lost eight of their top 12 tacklers along with 11 of the 18 players who took 200 or more snaps. HOUSTON: Is this a team that can remain competitive moving from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 this season? The Cougars finished 8-5 after a 23-16 win against UL-Louisiana in the Independence Bowl — and their 5-3 record in conference play could have been more with them outgaining those opponents by +76 YPG. But they allowed 32 or more points seven times — and now they lose eight of their top nine tacklers and 11 of the 20 players who logged in 200 or more snaps. After ranking 104th in the nation by allowing 421.8 total YPG, they will be playing even more powerful offenses in the Big 12. They also replace four-year starting quarterback Clayton Thune who moves on to the NFL. On the other hand, fifth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen is no stranger to the Big 12 after a successful run with West Virginia in that conference before his move to Houston. KANSAS STATE: Can the Wildcats beat top-tier teams with elite talent on their roster? Using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics for power rankings, they had a 1-3 record against top-ten teams and a 9-1 record against their remaining opponents. They did upset TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game — but the Horned Frogs were already destined to make the College Football Playoff with their undefeated record at the time. The Wildcats lost to Tulane (not an SP+ top-ten team but who did upset USC), Texas, and earlier to TCU — and they then got thumped in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama by a 45-20 score. Head coach Chris Klieman has put his fingerprint on the culture in Manhattan — his teams play smart and physical. But does the lack of blue-chippers on the roster limit the potential of his teams? This year’s group returns 13 starters — but they lost five players to the NFL which is a ton for this program. LIBERTY: Can first-year head coach Jamey Caldwell transfer his success at Coastal Carolina into this Liberty program playing in Conference USA? After four years of navigating Sun Belt Conference opponents with the Chanticleers, Caldwell is facing an upgrade in competition defending against his triple-option offense that is heavy on play-action. He did bring co-offensive coordinators Willy Korn and Newland Isaac with him from Coastal Carolina along with defensive line coach Skylor Magee who gets promoted to be the Flames’ defensive coordinator. This staff inherits only eight starters from the team that finished 8-5 last season with a four-game losing streak after a 21-19 loss to Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. MARSHALL: Can the Thundering Herd maintain their level of play from their final five games of the season with the average scoring in those five victories being 23.8-13.6 Points-Per-Game? They concluded their 9-4 season with a 28-14 victory against Connecticut in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Only 11 starters return from that group with the biggest hits being on defense where they have just four starters back. They lost six of their top nine tacklers and eight of the 14 players who logged in 300 or more snaps from the unit that held Sun Belt Conference opponents to 16.0 PPG. Sophomore Cam Fancher does return at quarterback after posting a 6-1 record after taking over as the starter in their final seven games. MEMPHIS: When teams are winning or losing a disproportionate number of one-possession games, the analytics community generally thinks that is simply a function of luck that will even out over time — but what if the Tigers' disappointing results in one-possession games are reflective of their culture and game management under head coach Ryan Silverfield? After losing all four of their games decided by one possession last season, they are just 2-8 in their last ten games decided by one scoring possession going into Silverfield’s fourth season with the program. The Tigers outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +54 net YPG but settled for a 3-5 conference record and a 7-6 record overall. Twelve starters return led by junior quarterback Seth Henigan who will be a three-year starter under center this season. NEW MEXICO: The Lobos were just 2-10 last season with a winless mark in their eight games against Mountain West Conference competition. They got outgained by -168 net Yards-Per-Game against MWC rivals. In his four years as the head coach for New Mexico, Danny Gonzales has a 7-24 record. The offense ranked 130th and 129th in the FBS by generating only 228.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 13.1 Points-Per-Game. The offense has ranked last in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings in two straight seasons. The defense lost their outstanding defensive coordinator, Rocky Long, as well as their top seven tacklers. Only five of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps are back from a solid group that ranked 45th in the nation by allowing only 360.2 total YPG. That group lost one player to the NFL — and five other potential All-Conference performers decided to take their services to other programs. OKLAHOMA STATE: Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull? They finished 7-6 last season with their 4-5 record in Big 12 play countered by them getting outgained by -79 YPG against conference opponents. They return 13 starters from that group but must replace four-year starting quarterback Spencer Sanders with his transfer to Ole Miss along with running back Dominic Richardson who transferred to Baylor. Their offense finished outside the top 40 in scoring for the third straight season after scoring 30.6 PPG, ranking 48th in the nation. They only averaged 125.5 rushing YPG, their lowest tally since 2001. On the defensive side of the ball, after ranking fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.4 YPG in 2021, they plummeted to 114th in the nation by giving up 435.7 YPG. The loss of long-time defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State last year was a big blow to the program. This appears to be a program that has lost its identity and lost its way in the 19th season under head coach Mike Gundy. The floor is high with this program under his guidance with 17 straight winning seasons — but after winning ten or more games from 2016 through 2018, they have won no more than eight games in four of their last five campaigns. The outlier season was in 2021-22 when they won the Fiesta Bowl to finish 12-2 — but that was a year where they were fortunate to have a 6-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. PITTSBURGH: Has head coach Pat Narduzzi raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season? The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. SMU: The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but are they taking one step forward for every two steps back? Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU.SOUTH ALABAMA: How high is the ceiling for the Jaguars after enjoying their best season at the FBS level by going 10-3 overall with a 7-1 record in the Sun Belt Conference? In the first two years under head coach Kane Wommack, the team settled for 4-7 and 5-7 records. Eighteen starters are back from a group that finished second in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +111 YPG. However, they were perhaps a bit fortunate two in five of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession. SOUTH CAROLINA: Can the Gamecocks continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season? They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: After winning only six games in his first two seasons for a 6-16 overall record, head coach Will Hall oversaw the Golden Eagles earning their first bowl victory since 2016 with a 38-24 win against Rice in the Lending Tree Bowl. Was that 7-6 campaign a momentary blip on the radar — or will this be the new normal for this program? The former Tulsa offensive coordinator built consistent winners at the Division II level with West Georgia and West Alabama last decade — so he has a track record of success. But his team was outgained by -38 net YPG in Sun Belt Conference play despite their 4-4 record. Fifteen starters are back from last season led by running back Frank Gore, Jr. — but solving the quarterback issue has remained a problem with Hall resorting to using Gore in the wildcat formation and even as an occasional passer in the past. Hall used the transfer portal to address this issue in the offseason by bringing in Billy Wiles from Clemson and Holman Edwards from Houston. SYRACUSE: Was the Orange’s first winning season in four years a mirage? Syracuse finished 7-6 despite losing six of their last seven games and getting outgained in ACC play by -32.6 net YPG despite a 4-4 conference record. Twelve starters return including senior quarterback Garrett Shrader — but depth is a concern for a program that had only won 11 combined games in the three previous years. Recruiting under head coach Dino Babers in his eighth year with the program has been a problem — and the Orange’s 6-20 straight-up record in November in his tenure may speak to the quality of the overall roster. TULANE: The Green Wave experienced the biggest one-season turnaround in the history of NCAA college football by rebounding from a 2-10 record in 2021 to a 12-2 mark last that culminated in their 46-45 victory against USC in the Cotton Bowl. Is this sustainable — or is a step back (or two) for this program unavoidable? While they had a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference, they only ranked fourth with a +43 net YPG clip in conference play. The defense lost their top-five tacklers and defensive coordinator Chris Hampton who took the same position at Oregon. But 14 starters are back including four-year starting quarterback Michael Pratt who threw 27 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. Head coach Willie Fritz is well-respected in coaching circles — and he may be seeing the fruits of his labor at a non-traditional power in his eighth year with the program. UCLA: Has the transfer market enabled some bad habits in head coach Chip Kelly's recruiting tactics? Kelly is aggressive in bringing in transfers on both sides of the ball — but his attention to detail in recruiting may be waning along the way. The concern with leaning too heavily on the transfer portal is that it risks eroding the culture in the program with so many swinging doors in and out with fewer players dedicating themselves to the program for three or four years. On the other hand, Kelly should be using every tool in the box to improve his defense that gave up 30 or more points eight times last year. After finally letting go of his long-time defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro last year, former Boston College defensive coordinator Bill McGovern was not the answer with Bruins ranking 86th in the nation by allowing 403.3 YPG. Kelly turned to the 32-year-old Baltimore Ravens’ safeties coach D’Anton Lynn to try to fix his defense this year. UNLV: Can first-year head coach Barry Odom instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas? The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football coach who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. UTAH STATE: Did injuries hold the Aggies back last season — or was this a team due to take a few steps back after their improbable 11-3 campaign two years ago that included winning the Mountain West Conference Championship Game in the first year under head coach Blake Anderson. That 2021 season was propped up a six upset victories and a 4-0 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. The team settled for a 6-7 record last year after losing to Memphis in the First Responder Bowl by a 38-10 score. Their incumbent quarterback Logan Bonner suffered a season-ending injury in September and only three starters on defense were available to start all 13 games. Nine starters return this season including senior quarterback Cooper Legas who started the final nine games of the season. But once again, the Aggies won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. Consistently winning close games is probably not sustainable. VIRGINIA TECH: Do we still not fully appreciate just how good legendary head coach Frank Beamer along with his outstanding defensive coordinator Bud Foster were over the years? Justin Fuente was only able to oversee a 43-31 record in his six years with the program before he was let go at the tail end of the 2021 season. The program tapped a former graduate assistant to Foster in Brent Pry who had success as the defensive coordinator at Penn State for 11 seasons — but the Hokies were only 3-8 last year. It is not a quick fix in Blacksburg after the roster talent declined during the Fuente era which begs the question as to how fragile the foundation was while Beamer and Foster propped things up with their outstanding coaching. WASHINGTON STATE: While Jake Dickert has led this team to consecutive 7-6 record in his first two seasons as the Cougars head coach, can he get his team to become more competitive against the best teams in the country? They lost all five of their contests against teams ranked in the top 20 in ESPN’s SP+ Power Rankings while giving up 34 Points-Per-Game and 7.0 Yards-Per-Play against those opponents. The offense has lagged as well against better competition — they only scored 12.5 PPG in their games against teams ranked in the SP+ top 40 defenses last year. There seems to be a talent deficit in those games with the Cougars appearing to be playing from behind in the transfer portal wars. Their 4-5 record in the Pac-12 last year is tempered by a -40 net YPG margin in those games. On the other hand, Dickert’s selective use of the transfer portal may have him striking the right balance for this program to establish and maintain the culture he wants to nurture in Pullman.WASHINGTON: The Huskies come off an 11-2 campaign where they won their final seven games in a row with their 27-20 victory against Texas in the Alamo Bowl. Fifteen starters return from that group to raise expectations very high for this program in the second season under head coach Kalen DeBoer. Sixth-year quarterback Michael Penix led the way after leading the FBS with 4641 passing yards last season. He has a great group of wide receivers returning as well in Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan, who are all expected to play at the next level. Washington ranked second in the nation by generating 515.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The issue is on the other side of the football. In their two losses, the Huskies gave up 85 combined points. The Huskies' defense did improve throughout the season — after surrendering 32.3 Points-Per-Game in their first six games against FBS opponents, they held their final six FBS opponents to 22.7 PPG, although a softer schedule that included California, Colorado, and Oregon State helped in putting up that improved mark. Eight starters are back on defense. Washington gave up 251.5 passing YPG, ranking 100th in the FBS. They ranked 115th in the nation in defensive turnover rate and 109th in generating havoc. If the defense can improve those numbers to get into the top half of the nation, they can challenge for a national championship. WEST VIRGINIA: Head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat — and do the Mountaineers have enough talent on the roster to turn things around in his fifth year with the program? They have just a 14-21 record in the Big 12 under his leadership which is contributing to them losing more good players to bigger programs than the talent they are acquiring in the transfer portal. While they were 3-6 in conference play, they got outgained by -90.7 net YPG in those contests. They lost 12 of the 19 players on defense that logged in 200 or more snaps. Graham Harrell moved to Purdue to become their offensive coordinator — so running backs coach Chad Scott became the fourth offense coordinator under Brown. What is left is a small roster that lacks physicality — and Brown continues to struggle to establish a firm foundation from year to year in Morgantown. WYOMING: Is this the year that the Cowboys take the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title? Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. Best of luck -- Frank.
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