2025 Big 12 Conference Preview
by Matt Fargo
Tuesday, Jul 08, 20252025 Big 12 Conference PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)Kansas State: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +550Arizona State: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +550Texas Tech: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +650Utah: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ Big 12 Winner +650Baylor: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +750BYU: 7.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +800TCU: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ Big 12 Winner +900Iowa State: 7.5 Over +105 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,300Kansas: 6.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,800Colorado: 6.5 Over +135 Under -160 ~ Big 12 Winner +2,200Cincinnati: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130 ~ Big 12 Winner +3,500Houston: 6.5 Over +120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +4,000UCF: 5.5 Over -120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +5,000Oklahoma State: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +6,000West Virginia: 5.5 Over +140 Under -170 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000Arizona: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000Coaching ChangesCentral Florida: Gus Malzahn Out ~ Scott Frost InWest Virginia: Neal Brown Out ~ Rich Rodriguez InKansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5Kansas St. concluded its third straight four-loss season, going a combined 28-12, its best three-season stretch since 2012-2014. The Wildcats opened last season 7-1 but lost three of their last four yet salvaged the season with a Rate Bowl win over Rutgers after erasing a 17-point deficit. Despite just 10 returning starters, they are the fifth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and come in as one of the favorites. The offense regressed last season but they bring back quarterback Avery Johnson who needs to be more accurate and his leading receiver Jayce Brown also returns. Despite losing running back DJ Giddens, Kansas St. has the No. 1 ranked running back unit in the conference. The defense remained steady and will be solid again as they bring back their top two tacklers and have the top ranked defensive line. Kansas St. closed the last two seasons with regular season losses against Iowa St. and it opens the season against the Cyclones in Dublin. Three nonconference games follow including Army and Arizona, the latter is being recorded as a nonconference game and in the Big 12, the Wildcats do have four road games, in addition to the neutral game, including at Baylor and Utah while missing Arizona St. altogether.Arizona State Sun Devils 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9The Sun Devils were the surprise of the conference last season and one of the biggest in the country as after consecutive 3-9 seasons, they finished 10-2 including 7-2 in the Big 12, rolled over Iowa St. in the championship game and took Texas to double overtime before losing in the Peach Bowl in the first round of the CFP. It was their first double-digit win season since 2014 and they finished inside the AP Top Ten for the first time since 1996. Despite the loss of running back Cam Skattebo, there is not expected to be a drop off as Arizona St. returns 17 starters. The offense improved by over 15 ppg and 107 ypg behind Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt who was second in the conference in passing efficiency. They brought in two big transfers at running back and receiver to join potential All American receiver Jordyn Tyson behind a strong offensive line. The defense also improved considerably and they are loaded once again with nine starters back and there is no weakness at any level. A game at Mississippi St. is the only nonconference speedbump and the Sun Devils benefit from five conference home games. The issue is that of the four road games, three are at Baylor, Utah and Iowa St. with the fourth being a tricky one at Colorado.Texas Tech Red Raiders 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11Make it four consecutive winning seasons for the Red Raiders, the longest streak since putting together 16 straight winning seasons that ended in 2010. They were taken to overtime in their opener last year against Abilene Christian and survived by a point but then lost to Washington St. so things were not looking good but won four straight before suffering back-to-back losses against Baylor and TCU before closing 3-1 prior to their 39-26 Liberty Bowl loss against Arkansas. Texas Tech comes in as the second most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference as they have 21 returning starters (11 of which are incoming transfers) and can contend if a couple upsets happen. The offense got back to the potent unit last season as it improved by over 10 ppg and 60 ypg behind quarterback Behren Morton who threw for 3,335 yards with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions and while he loses receiver Josh Kelly, the next two return along with transfer help. The defense took a big step back but this will be an improved unit with the return of five of the top six tacklers and transfers everywhere. The Red Raiders will easily go 3-0 in the nonconference but the Big 12 schedule is a beast with five road games, three at Utah, Arizona St. and Kansas St.Utah Utes 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7Last season was a disaster for Utah as it opened 4-0 but then injuries piled up and the Utes lost their next seven games, four by 13 points combined, before closing the season with a win over Central Florida. It was the first losing season for Utah since 2013 and that final win avoided a 4-8 record which would have been their worst record since 1989. The Utes are expected to rise back to the top as they are healthy, experienced and have one of the most favorable schedules in the country. The offense has 10 returning starters, four being transfer starters including quarterback, running back and wide receiver coming in from New Mexico, following new offensive coordinator Jason Beck arriving from the Lobos. The Cam Rising experiment is done as Devon Daniels takes over from his First Team All MWC season at New Mexico where he combined for nearly 4,000 passing and rushing yards. A huge turnaround is expected. The defense was as good as it was from the previous three seasons and should be even better with tons of experience. Utah opens at UCLA and then has Cal Poly and Wyoming and the Utes have only four conference road games and while they face Texas Tech, Arizona St. and Kansas St., all of those are at home with the toughest road game at Baylor.Baylor Bears 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8It was a tough start for Baylor last season as it opened 2-4 before winning its final six regular season games before falling 44-31 to LSU in the Texas Bowl. This comes after a brutal 2023 season for the Bears that went 3-9 with their two FBS wins by a combined four points so going back to the end of the 2022 season, that late season winning streak last year put an end to a 5-17 run and ultimately saved the job of head coach Dave Aranda who in 31-30 through his first five seasons and he might need a big campaign to stay around past 2025. Baylor is the third most experienced team in the conference and it starts with the offense that has 10 starters back led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson who threw for over 3,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions and he has each of his two top receivers and rushers back to go along with the second ranked offensive line in the Big 12. The defense was awful in 2023 but the Bears improved a good amount last season and will be even better as they are stacked at all three levels. Baylor opens with a pair of tough nonconference games, hosting Auburn and then travelling to SMU. The toughest road game in the Big 12 is at TCU as the Bears get Arizona St., Kansas St. and Utah all at home.BYU Cougars 11-2 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4BYU came into the Big 12 Conference in 2023 and went through expected growing pains as it went 2-7 including losses in its final five games but it did not take long for a rebound as the Cougars opened last season 9-0, including 6-0 in the conference, and moved into the AP Top Ten but suffered consecutive losses against Kansas and Arizona St. by a combined nine points but then rolled Houston in the season finale to finish 7-2 took out Colorado in the Alamo Bowl 36-14. They are not as experienced this season and have only eight total starters back but are still good enough to make some noise behind a favorable schedule. The offense got back to the offense of 2022 but took a hit in the offseason with quarterback Jake Retzlaff deciding to transfer following breaking the BYU Honor Code and now the job is up for grabs. There are not many pieces in place at the other skill positions with the offensive line also doing some rebuilding. The defense had it best year since 2020 and will be good again but expect some regression with only four returning starters. A 6-0 start is very possible with a game at Colorado being the tough one but then comes the onslaught with Utah, Iowa St., Texas Tech and TCU right after, the middle two on the road.TCU Horned Frogs 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8After its CFP run in 2022, TCU regressed as expected with a 5-7 record in 2023 but the Horned Frogs bounced back last year by going 9-4 including wins in six of its last seven games, a three-point loss at Baylor being the lone setback. It has been a roller coaster over the last decade in Fort Worth but head coach Sonny Dykes has the program going in the right direction after a slide at the end of the Gary Patterson era. It will likely take something special for TCU to make a huge run as the schedule is the biggest obstacle with it being ranked as the toughest in the conference. The offense is led by quarterback Josh Hoover who threw for a school record 3,949 yards last season to go along with 27 touchdowns and he should be just as electric as long as they can fill the void from losing Jack Bech. The run game was abysmal last season as they averaged only 3.7 ypc and lost their top two rushers so someone has to step up behind an offensive line returning three starters. The defense has improved each of the last four years as it allowed the fewest points and yards since 2020 and get eight starters back. North Carolina and SMU highlight the nonconference and they face five of the top six teams ahead of them in the Big 12, three on the road.Iowa State Cyclones 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6Iowa St. is a team that is lost in the shuffle as far as odds go and a big reason could be it has never won a Big 12 Championship. Or a Big 8. Or a Big 7. Or a Big 6. The Cyclones are coming off an 11-3 season, the first double-digit winning season in program history and the pieces are in place to make another deep run like last season where they lost in the championship game to Arizona St. 45-19. They have had only one losing conference record since 2017 but getting over the hump has been impossible, literally, since it has never happened. There is no reason to count them out despite the odds. The offense has seven starters back with quarterback Rocco Becht now in his third season as the starter and while he loses a pair of 1,100-yard receivers, he does have the No. 1 ranked running back and No. 2 ranked offensive line units in the conference. The defense has been consistent as it has allowed between 20.3 and 25.9 ppg every year since 2017. Six starters are back and while the top two tacklers are gone, we should see the consistency continue. Iowa St. hosts Iowa in the Cy-Hawk with that being the toughest nonconference game and in the Big 12, Kansas St., BYU, Arizona St. and TCU are the only tough games, with just TCU being on the road.Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 ~ 4-5 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5The Jayhawks put together that improbable 2023 season where they went 9-4, its first winning season since 2008 and the nine wins are only the fourth time in school history they have hit that mark. At 5-4, it was just their second winning conference record and last year was supposed to be an encore but Kansas lost it first five FBS games, four by 17 points combined, and was unable to get back to a bowl game for a third consecutive season. There is not a ton of experience (No. 77 in the country) and only five starters are back on each side of the ball but the Jayhawks are in position to get back to a bowl game. It all starts with quarterback Jalon Daniels who missed 10 games during that 2023 season and played all 12 games last year but was not efficient and every receiver that caught a pass is gone so there needs to be instant chemistry. Leading rusher Devin Neal is also gone as are three of the five offensive linemen. The defense has not been great the last two seasons but still a major improvement as they allowed under 400 ypg both seasons, the first time since 2009, but they lose their top six tacklers. A roadtrip to Missouri highlights the nonconference and in the Big 12, they only have to face four of the top eight, two at home and two on the road.Colorado Buffaloes 9-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 8It was a rough first year for head coach Deion Sanders as Colorado closed 1-8 and then got blown out by Nebraska in its first FBS game last season but the Buffaloes closed 8-2 over their final 10 regular season games and while the 36-14 loss in the Alamo Bowl was not an ideal ending to the season, it was still promising. 2025 can be considered a rebuild or a reload or a mix of both as there is not a lot of experience with only 11 starters back and replacing Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter is impossible. The offense had been consistent under Sanders in the two years with his kid at quarterback yet had one of the worst rushing offenses but that will change this year as they want more balance. They need it. They brought in quarterback Kaidon Salter from Liberty who threw for 5,850 yards while running for over 2,000 yards. The top four receivers are gone and the horrible offensive line is being overhauled by the transfer portal. The defense improved by 11.7 ppg and 101 ypg from 2023 and there is a lot more experience on that side to let the offense catch up. All three nonconference games are at home with Georgia Tech being the tough one and they have to face six of the top eight in the Big 12, missing Texas Tech and Baylor.Cincinnati Bearcats 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8The hottest coaching seat in the Big 12 Conference belongs to Scott Satterfield but in his defense, the Bearcats have not been very experienced and moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a tall order, ask Houston and Central Florida, so he could very well be safe for another season. But improvements have to come following an 8-16 record the last two seasons and this could be the season they get back to a bowl game. They have the most experienced team since the shift and the offense has a chance to be really good. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby returns after completing 64 percent of his passes, fourth best in the conference, while throwing for 2,813 touchdowns and 18 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Of his top five receivers, only tight end Joe Royer returns so there could be some chemistry issues early. Leading rusher Corey Kiner is gone but Wisconsin leading rusher Tawee Walker transferred in to run behind an above average offensive line. The defense improved from 2023 and should be even better with eight starters back with the strength being the front seven. They open in Kansas City against Nebraska so a 3-0 start is possible. They get five conference home games and three of those are against the top eight teams.Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 7Houston opened 1-4 in year one with head coach Willie Fritz including back-to-back shutout losses to Cincinnato and Iowa St. but the Cougars rallied to win three of four only to get blown out in their final three games to complete a second consecutive 4-8 season. This followed a 20-7 two-season run but that was in the AAC so the transition has not been an easy one. Houston was very inexperienced last season but is much more veteran now to go along with greater depth. Houston used Donovan Smith and Zeon Chriss at quarterback and both were identically bad as each threw for just over 800 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman will take over and will welcome the new surroundings after being benched last season. They also used a running back by committee with all three leading rushers back but still averaged only 3.8 ypc so the offensive line has to show up with four likely new starters. The defense was pretty solid, finishing No. 25 overall and No. 40 in scoring and bring in a slew of transfers along with a new coordinator. Two nonconference games are on the road but they are at Rice and Oregon St. The Big 12 schedule is not bad as they miss Kansas St., Iowa St. and Utah and BYU.UCF Knights 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6The third of the three AAC transplants are the lone one to have made a bowl game in the first two years in the Big 12 as Central Florida made it to the Gasparilla Bowl in 2023 where it lost to Georgia Tech 30-17. The Knights fell to 4-8 last season as they started 3-0 but could not overcome a five-game losing streak right after that and they closed 1-7. It could be another rough season in the first under new head coach Scott Frost who is in his second stint in Orlando after coaching here in 2016 and 2017. Central Florida is the least experienced team in the conference and has only 10 total starters back including four on offense and only one that has started here. That comes from the offensive line which will be a work in progress that will hurt the normally potent running game to go along with the loss of RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,577 yards. Quarterback transfers Tayven Jackson and Cam Fancher will battle it out and will not have a single receiver that caught a pass last season. The top five tacklers are gone but they did a solid job in the transfer portal. Three home games make up the nonconference including North Carolina and the Knights have to play five Big 12 road games with four of those against teams in the top six.Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-9 ~ 0-9 Big 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6Losing at Oklahoma St. rarely happens. Actually, almost never as the 3-9 record last season was the first since 2005 and what made it more surprising was the fact Oklahoma St. came into the season as the most experienced team in the country and was a Big 12 favorite but bottomed out with nine straight losses following a 3-0 start. Head coach Mike Gundy gets a pass as he has 18 winning seasons sandwiched inside those two losing campaigns and while it could be another tough season, it should not be as bad. The offense is basically starting over at the skill positions. The leading quarterback contender is Zane Flores who has not taken a snap in two years because of a redshirt and an injury and there is basically zero experience behind him. The top three receivers who accounted for over 2,000 yards are gone as it running back Ollie Gordon who was an All American candidate but disappointed with just 880 yards. The defense was atrocious as the Cowboys allowed 500.6 ypg which was ahead of only Kent St. and help in on the way from the transfer portal but it is not enough. A trip to Oregon is a sure loss in the nonconference and it is too bad they cannot take advantage of an easy Big 12 schedule with Texas Tech being the only tough road game.West Virginia Mountaineers 6-7 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6It was not an awful six years under head coach Neal Brown, it just was not good enough. He finished with a 37-35 record and in comparison, prior to him, Dana Holgorsen was 44-32 in his final six seasons so it was not that much worse. However, four losing seasons under Brown were the same amount from 1995-2018, a span of 24 seasons so it was probably time. West Virginia hired Rich Rodriguez who coached here from 2001-2007 and only had one losing season which was his first while stringing together three straight 11-win campaigns. It is definitely rebuilding time. Nicco Marchiol is the likely starter at quarterback and he was decent in a pair of starts but the top three receivers are gone and he will be behind an offensive line that made zero starts at West Virginia last season. The star of the offense could be running back Jahiem White who rushed for 845 yards on 5.7 ypc. The defense is in worse shape as while six returning starters are listed, only one was in Morgantown who accounted for just two starts so this is going to be interesting. The Backyard Brawl is at home this season to go along with a tricky road game at Ohio and in the Big 12, they have to face five of the top seven teams, avoiding only Kansas St. and Baylor.Arizona Wildcats 4-8 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9It was five straight losing seasons for Arizona from 2018 to 2022, the longest streak since six straight from 2000-2005, but the Wildcats broke through with a 10-3 record in 2023 and head coach Jedd Fisch used that to move onto Washington which left Arizona scrambling and it settled on Brent Brennan who was put in a tough spot with not a ton to work with and playing in a new conference. It caught up late as the Wildcats closed 1-7 to complete a 4-8 season and things are not looking much better this season. The offense was inconsistent as quarterback Noah Fifita regressed after a sensational freshman year and that was with Tetairoa McMillan and his 1,319 yards and 84 catches still in the mix but he is off to the NFL so he needs another new favorite target. Their top rusher is also gone and only one offensive lineman is back that started here last season. The defense fell off as it allowed 10.7 ppg more than in 2023 but the top four tacklers are back including both safeties. The front seven is getting solid help from the transfer portal. Arizona opens with Hawaii and Weber St. at home before hosting Kansas St., which is being counted as a nonconference game and they have to face only four of the other top eight in the Big 12.
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