CBK 2-Team Multi-Pack - Monday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Miami Florida vs Florida
- Release Date
- 11/01/2026 11:37 PM
- Event Date
- 11/02/2026 06:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Florida -4.5 (-112)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- I like Florida to cover against Miami on Monday night. The preseason No. 1 team against No. 14 Miami isn’t even being played in Gainesville, it’s being played on a neutral floor in Tampa.
Florida returns 4 starters and 81.8% of their scoring from last year’s 27-win SEC championship team. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Boogie Fland all return alongside Denzel Aberdeen who gives Florida another experienced guard. Continuity is huge in an opening night game when most teams with new pieces still haven’t figured out how to play with each other.
Florida should also greatly out-rebound Miami. The Gators led the nation in rebounding margin last season at +14.7 and were 2nd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Chinyelu averaged 11.2 rebounds per game and was the national Defensive Player of the Year. Add Condon and Haugh to that frontcourt and you’ve got a ton of size that can create second-chance points for Florida while also forcing Miami to end defensive possessions by securing rebounds.
Speaking of defense, the defensive matchup also heavily favors Florida. Florida ranked among the nation's best defensive teams a season ago and return nearly the entire core of that defense. Fland is a great on-ball defender while Chinyelu can clean up the paint. Miami returns plenty of offensive talent, but shooting efficiently against Florida’s length and experience for 40 minutes will be a tall task.
Speaking of offense, Florida also has plenty of ways to score the basketball. Haugh averaged 17.1 points per game, Condon 15.1, Fland 11.6 and Chinyelu 10.9 last season. If Miami wants to key in on stopping Florida inside the paint, Haugh and Condon will create looks for Fland, Aberdeen, and Urban Klavzar on the perimeter. Klavzar shot over 40% from three last season and gives Todd Golden another scoring option coming off the bench.
Miami should be good enough to keep this game competitive for long stretches, but Florida’s experience, ability to control the glass and defensive depth will wear down the Hurricanes as the game progresses. I expect Florida to really pull away in the 2nd half as they convert on offensive rebounds, transition buckets and free throws.
Jim's Play: 762. Florida
