- Analysis
- I’ll back Gonzaga to cover against Purdue on Monday. Continuity matters in college basketball, and Gonzaga has the advantage in that category against a Purdue team that’s undergoing a significant rebuild. The Boilermakers graduated Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, forcing Matt Painter to replace most of last year’s offensive production and, most notably, Smith’s ability to create for others. Purdue now has one of the least experienced backcourts in the country, and those young players will be asked to play big roles immediately against a nationally ranked opponent.
We got a taste of some of those concerns during Purdue’s exhibition against UConn. The Boilermakers got blown out 76-53, made only 32.8% of their field goals and shot 2-for-25 from three-point range. They committed 13 turnovers and were outrebounded 40-34. It’s just one exhibition game, but Purdue clearly had trouble creating quality shots once teams applied defensive pressure at a high level. Gonzaga has the length and athleticism to give the Boilermakers similar issues.
Another factor that could play a major role for Gonzaga is its frontcourt. Braden Huff and Izan Almansa give Mark Few options around the basket, while Purdue will likely need to lean heavily on 7-foot-3 Daniel Jacobsen. Gonzaga should look to attack Jacobsen early, make him have to defend ball screens and try to put him in foul trouble. If Purdue can’t consistently protect the rim, Gonzaga’s penetration will become much more difficult to contain.
The good news for Gonzaga fans is that the Bulldogs appear to be getting healthy at the perfect time. Xaivian Lee, Javon Bennett and Davis Fogle are all expected to be available for Monday’s game, which will give Few multiple ballhandlers and a ton of offensive versatility. Gonzaga rolled over Lewis-Clark State 91-59 in its final exhibition while shooting 56% from the field, recording 23 assists and turning 14 turnovers into 24 points.
Finally, this game is taking place in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena, so Purdue won’t have the massive home-court advantage it typically enjoys in Mackey Arena. Gonzaga is used to playing big neutral-site games, and Few’s teams have generally been incredibly prepared for early-season tournaments like this.
You can make a case for Purdue staying competitive in this game, and Matt Painter has had a huge edge in this series in the past (the Boilermakers have won all five previous matchups). But this isn’t last year’s Purdue team that Gonzaga smashed two times. The Boilermakers might have enough talent to keep things close for a while, but Gonzaga just looks deeper, more experienced and more comfortable offensively right now.
Jim's Play: 826. Gonzaga
