TDG’s MLB FRIDAY NIGHT VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 09/18/2026 09:11 PM
- Event Date
- 09/18/2026 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Diego Padres -195
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Friday Night Vegas Jackpot is on the San Diego Padres with the money line versus the Miami Marlins at 9:40 pm et.
The San Diego Padres won for the tenth time in their previous twelve games with a 9-2 win at Colorado yesterday. The Padres have scored six or more runs in seven of their previous eight games. With an 84-69 record, they are in second place in the NL West, nine games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have won twenty-eight of their previous forty-two games after beating their previous opponent. They have won fourteen of their previous eighteen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -150 or higher, and they have won seven in a row at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite from -175 to -250. San Diego has beaten twenty-six of their previous forty at home against opponents with a losing record. They have a 46-29 record at home after winning twenty-three of their previous thirty-one games at Petco Park. In the last week, they are averaging 7.0 runs per game with a .325 batting average, a .373 on-base percentage, and a .558 slugging percentage in those six games. They are expected to face the Marlins’ Tyler Phillips tonight. The right-hander has a 5-6 record with a 3.55 era and a 1.33 whip in thirty-five appearances and eighteen starts. He has been fortunate to have an opponents batting average on the batted balls put into play of .265 against him. The MLB babip average is .287. He has also been getting breaks with a strand rate of 80.9%, despite the MLB left-on-base rate being 72.3. He is only striking out 18.9% of opposing hitters, ranking in the lowest 26th percentile. He is walking 10.1% of opposing hitters, ranking in the lowest 29th percentile. Hitters are getting a hard hit rate of 95 or more miles per hour in 42.7% of the batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 17th percentile. He has a 5.21 era and a 1.44 whip on the road this year. In his last two starts, he has a 5.19 era.
Miami has won four of their previous five games after a 4-3 win at Arizona on Wednesday. The Marlins’ 76-77 record puts them in third place in the NL East, 13 games behind Atlanta. They have a 31-44 record on the road, and they have won only four of their fifteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 7 or 7.5. They have pulled off only twenty-one upsets in their fifty-five games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog, and they are winless in their six road games as a money line underdog priced from +150 to +200. Miami is winless in their six games on the road this year against opponents with a winning percentage in the 54%-62% range. On the road, they are hitting .246 with a .319 on-base percentage and a .402 slugging percentage in those seventy-five games. The Marlins are expected to see Nick Pivetta on the mound for the Padres. After being injured for most of the year, the right-hander has a 2-2 record with a 3.60 era and a 1.00 whip in six starts. Last year for San Diego, he had a 13-5 record with a 2.87 era and a 0.99 whip in thirty-one starts. He has an elite 35.2% chase rate which is helping him strike out 31.0% of the hitters he has faced. Last year, he had a 2.36 era and a 0.86 whip in seventeen starts at home. In four starts at home this year, he has a 3.38 era and a 0.94 whip. Play San Diego with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
