Matt Fargo - Houston vs Texas Tech

Fargo's CFB Friday Main Attraction 39-21 Run

Handicapper
Matt Fargo
League
NCAAF
Competition
Houston vs Texas Tech
Release Date
09/17/2026 05:23 PM
Event Date
09/18/2026 08:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Houston +7.5 (-105) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our CFB Friday Main Attraction. Houston is 2-0 while averaging 55 ppg, and the market has moved from Texas Tech around -13.5 at open to -7.5. They already have a common opponent as both have played Oregon St. Houston outgained Oregon St. 533-376, while Texas Tech allowed 417 passing yards to the Beavers and were outgained 472-352 overall. The Cougars came in a sleeper to win the Big 12 Conference following 10 wins last season and while we do not typically play the road revenge angle, Houston has the roster and motivation to get that payback or at least keep this one within reach. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points good passing team from last season with a completion pct of 58% or better, in weeks 0-3, after allowing 8 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2017. 10* (109) Houston Cougars

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