TOM'S 16-1 ATS NEARLY PERFECT BEST BET - FRI
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Miami Florida vs Wake Forest
- Release Date
- 09/17/2026 03:56 PM
- Event Date
- 09/18/2026 07:35 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Miami Florida -20.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #107 MIAMI (FL) (-) over Wake Forest at 7:30 PM EST
After opening the season with blowout wins over Stanford (45-6) and Florida A&M (77-7), Miami looks poised to extend its strong start with another commanding performance at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are also 2-0 SU after beating the Zips (38-16) and Boilermakers (38-36), but head coach Jake Dickert and his team face a major step up in competition against the powerful Hurricanes. Let’s examine the numbers.
Dating back to 2004, Miami and Wake Forest have crossed paths six times and the 'Canes won them all posting a 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS record. Equally impressive, since 2023, head coach Mario Cristobal and his boys have inked a respectable 32-12 SU and 24-16 ATS mark in their last 44 games including a strong 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS provided they are stepping up in class and fighting a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .600 or higher. With those two parameters live and Miami sliding in with steam off a straight up win, this angle jets to a 13-3 SU and ATS. Finally, in Game 3, road or neutral-site favorites of -9.5 points or more are 16-6-1 ATS when both teams enter at 2-0 SU, a trend that points toward the ’Canes.
Wake Forest's 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS run in its last 12 games is noted and respected. However, momentum has been a serious problem for the Demon Deacons. In fact, at home lined up against an opponent that arrives with steam off two or more straight up wins, Coach Dickert and his crew sport a stiff 14-48 SU and 20-42 ATS record including a horrendous 0-37 SU and 9-28 ATS provided they are priced as an underdog of +5.5 or more. With those two parameters in play and Wake slipping in off a true road game, this angle crashes to a miserable 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS. Finally, undefeated game three double-digit underdogs hold a surprising 2-38 SU and 12-28 ATS tally provided they check in off a pointspread loss. If our "play against" side is facing a foe that busts in off a blowout win of 26 points or more, this angle crashes to a filthy 0-17 SU and 1-16 ATS. That's going to be a problem for the Demon Deacons.
Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah has been a force for Miami and should find plenty of success against a Wake defense that gave up 29 first downs and 455 total yards to Purdue last Saturday. Take Miami. Thanks, and best of luck, Tom.
