MLB MONDAY LATE SHOW BAILOUT
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Release Date
- 08/03/2026 08:06 PM
- Event Date
- 08/03/2026 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks -111
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 9:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907), listing both starting pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt and Michael King. THE SITUATION: Arizona (59-53) had won four games in a row before their 5-0 loss in Cleveland against the Guardians on Sunday. San Diego (58-54) has won three games in a row after their 5-4 win at home against San Francisco yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DIAMONDBACKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Arizona returns home, where they have won 15 of their last 24 home games after losing their last game. They return home after completing a ten-game road trip — and they have won 7 of their last 8 home games after playing three or more games in a row on the road. They have also won 31 of their 53 games at home this season — and they have won 22 of their last 34 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. The Diamondbacks have also won 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 5-1 record with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 19 games that includes nine starts. He flamed out in the starting rotation earlier in the season and got relegated to the bullpen before being sent down to the minors. He made some adjustments — and he has been more effective since his return to the majors and Arizona’s starting rotation at the end of June. In those six starts, he has a 2.50 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. One of his changes was to move his plant foot on the rubber one foot closer to first base. He is also using his cutter and fastball more. He has walked only four batters in those six starts — and he has not given up a home run in five starts. His good run should continue against this Padres team that ranks 21st and 19th in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers. San Diego has won eight of their last nine games — but they just completed a successful six-game home stand. The Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a win by one run. They have also lost 7 of their last 8 road games after playing three or more games in a row at home. Additionally, they have lost 12 of their last 18 games on the road. They counter with Michael King, who has a 6-7 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 22 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.45 and 4.42 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 4.58.
FINAL TAKE: The Diamondbacks rank eighth and ninth in MLB since July 3rd in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 10* MLB Monday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Arizona Diamondbacks (908) versus the San Diego Padres (907), listing both starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Michael King. Best of luck for us — Frank.
