Nelly’s Monday Night NL Division Delivery
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Release Date
- 08/03/2026 07:03 AM
- Event Date
- 08/03/2026 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks -110
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Arizona and San Diego are just a game apart in the NL West standings and currently it is the difference between a wild card spot and being the first team out of the NL postseason picture. The Padres have made a recent surge with an 8-1 run in the past nine games but there has been a lot of close-game fortune on that run while not facing the best competition in drawing two of the NL’s worst teams last week. Brandon Pfaadt is on a dominant run since moving back into the Arizona rotation, posting a 1.85 ERA in six starts and Arizona is 6-0 in those games. The Diamondbacks are 31-22 at home this season and Pfaadt pitched well in a July win in San Diego about a month ago. Michael King has a 3.38 ERA but a 4.12 FIP and he has an elevated walk rate. In seven of his last 12 starts he has allowed at least three runs for a 4.74 FIP with a 4.30 ERA since late May. San Diego’s bullpen has a stronger profile than Arizona’s recent relief results, but the Padres had one-run results Saturday and Sunday with significant bullpen usage. Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitched in both games for a pitching staff that is already short-handed with a recent rash of injuries. Mason Miller may not be traded after all with San Diego’s recent run back into the playoff race but he blew a save opportunity on Saturday in a 30-pitch outing as the bullpen will start the week in less than ideal form. Arizona lost Sunday but didn’t need to use any key relievers for a team that is quietly 14-6 in the past 20 games. The Diamondbacks are 21-11 in NL West games this season with superior scoring numbers to San Diego and Monday’s matchup should favor the host in a pairing of division rivals that are playing well since the All-Star Break.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
