- Analysis
- At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Türkiye (225358) minus the goal-line versus Paraguay (225357) in Group D action in the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Türkiye (W0-D0-L1) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss against Australia in their opening match on Saturday. Paraguay (W0-D0-L1) attempts to rebound from a 4-1 loss against the USMNT last Friday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
REASONS TO TAKE TURKIYE MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Since I started handicapping the 2010 World Cup, which then led to getting invested in Women’s World Cups, Euros, Copa Americas, and CONCACAF Gold Cup (and even the 2019 African Cup of Nations), I learned the hard way that there is a rhythm to effectively analyzing Group Stage matches. Caution for the opening matches is usually prudent. For the second match, the challenge is assessing whether surprising early results were outliers or a canary in the coal mine that warrants a change in perspective regarding a squad. Moving forward after two matches, the answer to that question becomes clearer. One thing that is helpful for these second group stage matches is to assess how the earlier results of the day impact the urgency level of both sides. With the USMNT clinching a spot in the knockout stage, both of these teams will be playing out of desperation. The team with even more on the line is Paraguay because they are already -3 in goal differential, which is a tie-breaker. A loss for Los Guaranies would be devastating -- they would not only need to beat Australia next week, but they would likely need to do so by multiple goals to even put themselves into the conversation for the eight third-place bids for the 32 squads qualifying for the Knockout Stage. Even settling for a draw is risky, since it will demand a victory for the Aussies. This is critical for Paraguay because they will not be able to play their preferred style of playing without the ball and relying on the occasional counterattack if things are not going their way early in this match. They entered the World Cup with just one loss in their last 12 contests based on defensive solidarity. They had given up only 10 goals in their previous 18 matches with 10 clean sheets. In their World Cup qualifying matches, they upset Argentina despite only controlling possession 23% of the time. In eking out a draw with Brazil, they possessed the ball only 29% of the time. Even if this match is scoreless after 60 or so minutes, manager Gustavo Alfard will have to change the identity of his squad to try to earn the victory. They can’t win without controlling the ball — and they will be running out of time to rely on the occasional counter-attack. Paraguay scored only 14 goals in their 18 qualifying matches — and they got blanked nine times. Against the United States, they only generated 0.54 expected Goals (xG) with just one shot on target (which was their goal). They have to do more. The squad is less than 100% as well. Starting wing Ramon Sosa is a question with a knock, and Gustavo Caballero did not play against the Stars and Stripes due to a muscular issue. Türkiye deserved a better result against Australia. They won the xG battle by a 1.36 to 1.18 margin. They controlled possession 72% of the match. They had 30 shot attempts. Admittedly, they were not efficient with these shots, with players like Arda Guler, a 21-year-old for Real Madrid, pressing too much and taking shots from too far a distance. Only eight shots were on target. Manager Vincenzo Montella certainly addressed this. But they did fail to score on their two Big Chances (measured to result in goals at least 35% of the time). Sometimes, it’s just not a team’s night. One tweak Montella can do is start Juventus left-winger Kenan Yildez. After dealing with fitness issues at the end of his Serie A campaign, he was a second-half substitute against Australia — and he energized the Turkish attack. After generating only 0.44 xG on ten shots in the first half, the Crescent-Stars produced 0.92 xG and their two Big Chances in the second half from their 20 shots. Let’s remember that this Türkiye side is good. After failing to meet the hype around them in the 2020 European Championship, they reached the quarterfinals of the 2024 Euro. Since a rough 6-0 loss to Spain last September in World Cup qualifying matches across all competitions, they had then gone W7-D1-L0 in their next eight matches across all competitions before the loss to the Socceroos last week, including a redemptive 2-2 draw against Spain in November in another qualifying match. Led by their 32-year-old captain Hakan Calhanoglu of Inter Milan, this roster is complemented by exciting young talent like Guler and Yuldez. Nate Silver’s rethought Soccer Power Index, which embraces advanced analytics like xG, rebranded as PELE rankings now, places Türkiye 15th in the world. And while PELE ranks Paraguay at 23rd in the world, Los Guaranies does not have the luxury of playing in the style for much of this match that earned that ranking, unless they steal an early lead.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and Turkiye will control possession against Paraguay. I believe in the Regression Gods as the Crescent-Stars will eventually have their aggressive and one-sided activity rewarded. With a match against the USMNT pending, Montella cannot let his team settle for a draw. With both sides pressing for a win, expect Turkiye’s talent to prevail. 25* World Cup Group D Match of the Year with Türkiye (225358) minus the goal-line versus Paraguay (225357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
