- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB NL Central Total of the Month is with the Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs over at 7:40 pm et.
The Chicago Cubs made it six victories in a row yesterday in a 5-4 victory at home against the Reds. They have scored five or more runs in six of their previous seven games. They have played five straight overs after winning six or more games in a row. At home, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game with a .263 batting average, a .359 slugging percentage, and a .434 slugging percentage this year. The Cubs have played six of their nine games at home at Wrigley Field over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite from -150 to -200. They should continue to score plenty of runs against Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abbott. The southpaw has a 1-2 record in seven starts with a 5.97 era and a 1.67 whip. It is a far cry from 2025 when he posted a 10-7 record with a 2.87 era and a 1.15 whip in 29 starts. Abbott’s velocity is down to 92.4 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball, ranking in the lowest 20th percentile. His strikeout rate of 15.2% of the batters he has faced is a career low. After striking out 26.1% of opposing hitters in his rookie season four years ago, there has been a steady decline in punch-outs for the 26-year-old. His strikeout rate last season was 21.8%. He does come off as his second quality start of the season after holding Colorado to two earned runs from six innings of work. The whiffs he got on his fastball was still too low. Despite pitching well against perhaps the worst-hitting team in the league against the Rockies, he still has an 8.68 era and a 1.87 whip in his previous four starts. With more batters putting balls into play, his expected batting average has risen to .297 this season, ranking in the lowest 12th percentile. Chicago has played eight of their ten games this year over the total against opponents using a left-handed starting pitcher. They have played five of their previous six games against National League opponents using a starting pitcher with an era of 5.40 or higher. At night, the Cubs are averaging 6.8 runs per game with a .292 batting average, a .381 on-base percentage, and a .473 slugging percentage. They have played nine of their thirteen games over the total at night this year.
Cincinnati is on a four-game losing streak, and they have played nine of their thirteen games over the total after a loss this year. They are averaging 4.1 runs per game this year despite .219/.305/.385 hitting splits. In night games, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game with improved .227/.316/.419 hitting splits. The Reds have played eleven of their eighteen games at night this year over the number. They face the Cubs' Jameson Taillon tonight. The right-hander has a 2-1 record in six starts with a 4.41 era and a 1.15 whip. In his last four starts, he has a 5.25 era. He is serving up too many home runs. He has had a gopher ball in five straight starts, and he has given up multiple home runs in three of those games. For the year, he is giving up 2.34 home runs per nine innings, which is a career high. The velocity on his fastball is in decline as well. At the peak of his career, the right-hander’s fastball was in the 95 miles per hour range. Last year, it dipped to below 93 mph. This year, his four-seamer is at 91.6 miles per hour, ranking in the lowest 13th percentile. Opposing hitters are getting a barrel rate on 12.5% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 13th percentile. What is very troubling is that his strand rate of 81.0% is unusually high. The MLB left-on-base average this year is 72.1%, and Taillon’s career strand rate is at 74.0%. Opposing hitters only have a .207 batting average on the balls they have put into play this year. The MLB babip average is .290, and the 34-year-old’s career babip is .283. Things can get worse for Taillon. The Reds have played eighteen of their previous twenty-eight games over the total against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher. Play the over.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
