- Analysis
- At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (758) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri Tigers (757) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA tournament. THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (25-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 84-62 loss against Virginia as a 3.5-point underdog in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last Saturday. Missouri (20-12) has lost three games in a row after their 78-72 loss against Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament last Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri should bounce-back from an unusually poor shooting effort against the Cavaliers last week. Miami (FL) only made 38.6% of their shots, which was the worst shooting effort in their last 29 games — and their 20.0% mark from behind the arc was the worst long-distance shooting percentage in their last eight contests. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss this season. Rookie head coach Jai Lucas’ team plays a bruising style of play inside the arc. They rank 27th in the nation by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc. They also pull down 37.0% of their missed shots, the 17th-best mark in the nation. Miami (FL) also forces turnovers in 18.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 83rd in the nation. The Hurricanes do not take many 3s — but they shoot high-percentage shots and generate additional scoring opportunities on the offensive glass and by forcing turnovers. This is an approach that travels. Miami (FL) ranks in the top 38 in the nation on the road in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are scoring +0.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. And when they choose to shoot from distance, they are making a healthy 35.2% of their shots from behind the arc on the road, ranking 76th best of the 365 teams in Division I. They also surrender -4.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when on the road — and they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss against a fellow SEC rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 16 games after a loss by six points or less since Dennis Gates took over as their head coach. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. The Tigers like to crash the offensive glass, where they are pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots, ranking 28th in the nation. But second-chance opportunities will not come easily against the Hurricanes, who rank 21st in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding 26.3% of their missed shots. If Missouri cannot get second-chance opportunities, things go south for them on offense, where things too often get sloppy. They turn the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions, ranking 267th in the nation. They were last in the SEC in turnover rate — and many of these gaffes are self-inflicted as they turn the ball over in 8.4% of their possessions from non-steals. They also blow too many points at the free throw line, where they are making only 68.6% of their shots, ranking 307th in the nation. On the road, they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions, ranking 265th. They only make 32.6% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 200th. They also see their shooting inside the arc drop by -5.2%, the 267th biggest decline from 2-point shooting at home. They are scoring -3.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. Defensively, stopping Miami (FL) on the glass is going to be a problem since they rank 221st in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 31.4% of their missed shots. In their last ten games, their opponents have rebounded 33.8% of their misses, ranking 312th in Division I. They also allow their opponents to nail 36.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 330th in the nation. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 140s — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Under Games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their 19 games played in March. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against teams that are winning 60-80% of their games — and the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 25* CBB Round of 64 Game of the Year with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (758) minus the point(s) versus the Missouri Tigers (757). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
