- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B Tournament Round One Game of the Year is on Purdue minus the points versus Queens-Charlotte at 7:35 pm et.
We usually do not back big favorites like this, yet we do not want to forego good opportunities in the first round of the NCAA tournament when an elite team finds itself in a mismatch against an overachieving mid-major. That is the case here with Queens-Charlotte. The Royals were 13-5 in the Atlantic Sun conference, which put them in third place going into the conference tournament, trailing Central Arkansas and Austin Peay. After beating the Governors in the semifinals, they outlasted Central Arkansas in overtime in the championship game, 98-93, to win the tournament and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history. It is a great story, yet Queens does not have a style of play like the Cinderellas that have pulled off upsets in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Those teams tend to be disruptive in some way, like forcing turnovers or crashing the glass for offensive rebounds. The Royals only forced turnovers in 15.0% of their opponents' possessions, ranking 286th in the nation. Their offensive rebounding rate of 30.4% ranks 184th. Queens’ best chance to beat the Boilermakers is to simply outscore them in a high-scoring affair. They average 84.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting with a 36.6% mark from 3-point land. Yet their scoring average away from home drops to 78.8 points per game on 45.2% shooting and a 33.3% clip from 3-point land. The Royals' problem is that they are not a good defensive team, even by Atlantic Sun conference standards. They ranked sixth in the conference in defensive efficiency. Nationally, they rank 320th in defensive efficiency. They give up 82.9 points per game on 46.6% shooting, and on the road, those numbers rise to 85.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting. Poor defensive play does not track in the profile of teams that give the really good major conference teams trouble. Queens was not competitive against these teams in their non-conference schedule. They did stay within 20 points in a 94-74 loss against Villanova. Yet Virginia beat them by 25 points, 94-69. Arkansas beat them by 28 points, 108-80. Auburn beat them by 41 points, 106-65. Even Wake Forest crushed them by 38 points, 111-73. The Royals' best non-conference victory was against a Sacred Heart team that finished under .500 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Queens covered the point spread once in their seven non-conference games. They have covered the point spread in four of their eleven games on the road this year when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They may be in a letdown spot after winning the Atlantic Sun tournament since they have covered the point spread in four of their previous eight games on the road after scoring 85 or more points in their previous game. They have covered the point spread once in their previous five games on the road after playing a game where they gave up 85 or more points.
Purdue opened the season on a 17-1 record before taking a step back in January during the rugged Big Ten schedule. Lapses on defense were the culprit, yet head coach Matt Painter refocused his team in time for the Big Ten conference tournament, where they held their opponents to only 66 points per game. The most points they gave up in those four games was the 72 points Michigan managed to score in the Boilermakers' 80-72 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog to win that tournament on Sunday. For the year, Purdue is giving up 70.1 points per game on 44.6% shooting, yet in their 7-0 record on neutral courts, they held their opponents to 64.4 points per game on 42.0% shooting and a 29.7% mark from 3-point range. The Boilermakers’ strength is their explosive scoring attack that averages 81.7 points per game on 49.9% shooting. They rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. High-scoring teams playing suspect defensive clubs set up the profile for blowouts in these first round games in the NCAA tournament. They beat Texas Tech, an NCAA tournament at-large team, by 30 points. They beat Auburn by 28 points. Even if Purdue is cold with their shooting, they will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities. Their offensive rebounding rate of 36.6% ranks 20th in the country. Queens’ defensive rebounding rate of 67.0% ranks 300th. Against non-conference opponents, Purdue averaged 86.7 points per game on 51.6% shooting and a 39.9% clip from 3-point land. They held those non-conference opponents to 66.9 points per game on 39.6% shooting. The Boilermakers got upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament by Fairleigh Dickinson back in 2023. Painter learned from that experience not to have his team play at a faster pace to take advantage of their offensive efficiency against mid-majors like that. They have covered the point spread in eight of their nine games in the NCAA tournament since that embarrassment. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in sixteen of their twenty-one first round games in a tournament under Painter, which includes twelve of the sixteen games in the NCAA tournament. Purdue has covered the point spread in seventeen of their previous twenty-three games against non-conference opponents, and they have covered the point spread in eighteen of their previous twenty-seven games against opponents with a winning percentage from 60% to 80%. Painter has learned from that upset loss against Fairleigh Dickinson, a team that is 38th in the country in defensive turnover rate and was inside the top 100 in offensive rebounding. That is not the profile of this Royals team, which was not competitive against their major power conference opponents, who would all be underdogs against the Boilermakers according to the oddsmakers. Play Purdue minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
