CBK NCAA 20-Star Hi-Roller Total - Friday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Wright State vs Virginia
- Release Date
- 03/20/2026 11:33 AM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 01:50 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Wright State vs Virginia Under 147 (-115)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- UNDER appears the play in today’s 1st Round game between Wright State and Virginia. The line opened around Virginia -15 and has since jumped up to approximately -18.5 with a total in the 145 to 147 range. The favorite laying close to two scores is a game where NOT playing in a shootout is part of the prediction.
Spread-total correlations are always tempting spots to lean under and that is our biggest angle here. If Virginia is laying nearly 19 points I believe the 2nd half could very well come down to a slower, more half-court type game for the Racers. Blowout scores tend to depreciate overs because 1) the winning team doesn’t feel like they need to push the ball late and 2) the losing team is put in numerous half-court, set defense situations where scoring can be difficult. Sounds like a game script the line is laying us out to believe will happen.
Furthermore, Virginia just straight up takes games under control as the Cavaliers rank 68.4 PPG allowed. This isn’t a case where Virginia wants to absolutely bombard you with offense but the team does average 80.6 PPG. When UVA gets stops they excel at making opponents play through an ultra-efficient defense. If the Cavaliers are able to dictate playstyle and pace like they are accustomed to I doubt Wright State will score enough clean looks to allow the total to reach its mark.
Speaking of Wright State, yes the Raiders can score too. They average 80.7 PPG which is plenty good enough to push past Virginia’s opponents but that number is inflated by lesser defenses they see in the Horizon League. Keep in mind Wright State puts up 12.3 MORE POINTS PER GAME THAN VIRGINIA ALLOWS. Huge gap if you ask me and another reason to believe this game will stay underneath the number.
My ideal script for an under read goes a little something like this: Virginia gets themselves in front, Wright State struggles to score against Virginia’s bigger, more athletic defense and as the game progresses into the 2nd half things simply slow down. All the ingredients for a final score well below the projected point total.
Jim's Play: 755. Wright St / Virginia UNDER
