TOM'S NCAA TOURNEY ROUND 1 GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- California Baptist vs Kansas
- Release Date
- 03/20/2026 11:03 AM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 10:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Kansas -13.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #768 KANSAS (-) over California Baptist at 9:45 PM EST
After getting blasted by 22 points in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinal game by Houston, Kansas will check into the Big Dance with something to prove. Match up against a California Baptist University squad that will be making its first appearance ever in the NCAA Tournament, head coach Bill Self and his boys will cruise to a comfortable win and cover.
One thing KU has historically done is bounce back off blowout losses. In fact, when coming off a blemish of 10 points or more, the Jayhawks hold a sensational 74-9 SU and 48-27 ATS record including a phenomenal 20-1 SU and 19-2 ATS mark in their last 21 provided they are facing a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .685 or higher. With those two parameters in play and Kansas holding a pointspread won/loss percentage of .440 or better, this situation improves to a spotless 12-0 SU and ATS. Also, in the First Round of the Big Dance, Rock-Chalk carries a 31-3 SU and 20-14 ATS tally including a solid 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS provided their opponent busts in off a SU and ATS victory.
Cal Baptist is locked into a negative wagering spot in this First Round war. Since 1991, NCAA Tournament Round 1 teams that hold the No. 13 seed sport a stiff 17-85 SU and 41-60-1 ATS record provided they are facing a No. 4 seed that slips in without steam off a straight up loss. If our "play against" side is running the court against an opponent that owns a team won/loss percentage less than .780, this technical situation falls to a horrible 9-54 SU and 22-40-1 ATS. Also, Also, in Round 1 of the Big Dance, teams that are competing against an opponent that arrives off a blowout loss of 20 points or more hold a disturbing 26-56 SU and 31-50-1 ATS mark including a shocking 9-35 SU and 13-30-1 ATS provided their foe was not priced as a hefty underdog of +6 or more. The Lancers are catching the Jayhawks off that 20-point beating by the Cougars and they fit this negative situation perfectly.
The Jayhawks own a tremendous 113-51 SU record in the NCAA Tournament (47-5 SU in the First Round) and they will totally dominate a Lancers bunch that will be dancing for the first time ever (joined Division 1 in 2018). Take Kansas. Thanks, and best of luck, Tom.
