TOM'S 11-0 NCAA TOURNEY PERFECT ANGLE PLAY
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Hofstra vs Alabama
- Release Date
- 03/20/2026 11:01 AM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 03:21 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Alabama -11.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #744 ALABAMA (-) over Hofstra at 3:15 PM EST
In a bad mood off that one-point loss to Mississippi in the SEC Tournament, Alabama will bounce back with a high-scoring effort in this NCAA Tournament battle. Hofstra enters this Big Dance contest off a win and cover over Monmouth in the CAA Conference Tournament championship and the Pride will struggle when they step way up in class and compete with the mighty Crimson Tide.
Technically, this is a highly profitable wagering spot for head coach Nate Oats and his players. Since 1992, NCAA Tournament Round 1 favorites priced at -10.5 or more hold an elite 39-1 SU and 28-11-1 ATS record provided they lost straight up as a favorite of -9 or more in their last game. If our "play on" side is battling an opponent that slips in off a pointspread win, this power angle tightens up to a spectacular 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS including a stunning 11-0 SU and ATS if we own a team won/loss percentage less than .840. That bodes well for the Elephants.
Hofstra is locked into a negative wagering spot in this First Round war. Since 1991, NCAA Tournament Round 1 teams that hold the No. 13 seed sport a stiff 17-85 SU and 41-60-1 ATS record provided they are facing a No. 4 seed that slips in without steam off a straight up loss. If our "play against" side is running the court against an opponent that owns a team won/loss percentage less than .780, this technical situation falls to a horrible 9-54 SU and 22-40-1 ATS. To make matters worse, the CAA champion has lost 12 straight in the Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament by an average of 13.3 points per game.
The Tide have scored 90 or more points in 20 games this season and their high-octane offense will be way too much for the Pride to clamp down. Take Alabama. Thanks, and best of luck, Tom.
