- Analysis
- Northern Iowa is the team I'm looking at here Friday for my NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year. You’ll see Northern Iowa listed around +9.5 right now while the total is being pushed down toward 131.5. That’s key because when the number is this low, possessions are more valuable, and it’s more difficult for the favorite to pull away. A spread around 10 points in a game that’s being lined in the low 130s automatically grants some inherent value to the underdog.
Style of play is the biggest reason why UNI will stay close. Northern Iowa plays at a slow pace, and several of the current game previews specifically mention the Panthers’ pack-line defense and methodical pace. One site projected UNI to play at just 65.3 possessions per game, which gets at why pace-of-play matters in these discussions. If the game features few possessions, it naturally benefits the underdog because there are fewer opportunities for the favorite to build a gap.
On top of playing slow, Northern Iowa can keep things close defensively. A New York Post preview says that the Panthers allow only 61.3 points per game, while another preview called UNI 24th in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to under 29% from three-point range. Against a St. John’s team that thrives on rhythm and momentum, that lets UNI dictate the game’s pace and force it into a grinder.
Conference and tournament history further favors UNI because of how Ben Jacobson wants his team to play. St. John’s own preview mentioned that UNI is known as “a sneaky dangerous NCAA tournament team” before citing multiple tournament upsets by the Panthers. History doesn’t predict the future, of course, but that dovetails with the pace argument by suggesting that Northern Iowa isn’t a timid 12-seed that will fold under pressure.
Nothing about this analysis is meant to undermine how good St. John’s is or that they shouldn’t be favored. The Red Storm are 28-6 overall, won the Big East regular season and tournament championships, and have gone 19-1 since January 3 according to their preview. They’re more than earned that line.
Game script is a silent assassin for UNI as well. If the Panthers lose, they’ll probably lose by forcing St. John’s to play keep-away on offense. The Red Storm win by dominating the inside, taking few threes, and imposing their will in the second half. Against a team like Northern Iowa that forces opponents to grind out every bucket, it’s hard to envision St. John’s pulling away by more than a few points.
UNI covers by playing low-tempo basketball, frustrating opponents with its half-court defense, keeping opponents off the three-point line, and keeping the overall possession count down. They might not win, but that keeps the score closer than this spread indicates. Think matchup-adjusted true contests, not blowouts.
Jim's Play: 765. Northern Iowa (NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year)
