Nelly’s Round of 64 Game of the Year 77% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Hofstra vs Alabama
- Release Date
- 03/19/2026 05:13 PM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 03:21 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Hofstra +11.5 (-108)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Teams like Alabama that are one-dimensional with a great offense and marginal defense don’t often make deep tournament runs and Nate Oats getting the Tide to the 2024 Final Four was a great exception. Last year’s Elite Eight team was a far better defensive team than this year’s Alabama team and was also the #1 offensive efficiency team in the nation. Alabama’s up-tempo pace is likely to be stalled by Hofstra, and the Tide are incredibly reliant on 3-point shooting, which can be less reliable in unfamiliar tournament settings in games at unusual times vs. unfamiliar opponents. Aden Holloway is also the team’s best 3-point shooter, hitting nearly 44 percent on a high-volume of 169 attempts and Holloway is expected to be absent Friday in Tampa. Alabama has plenty of depth, but the season 3-point success rate will be difficult to reach against a credible Hofstra defense. Hofstra plays at a deliberate pace of play and for the season is a stronger 3-point shooting team than Alabama while stronger in 3-point defense as well. The Pride are a good free throw shooting team and Alabama’s defense is one of the worst in the nation at creating turnovers. There is a clear disparity in the strengths of schedule between these teams, but Hofstra did beat two ACC teams on the road this season. The Pride lost five games in a row in January but are now11-1 since with only a four-point defeat vs. the regular season champion in the CAA. The conference has produced several competitive games in recent NCAA Tournament appearances and Alabama is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games as a favorite of 7.5 or more going back to mid-December while Alabama is 1-4 ATS in the Round of 64 under Nate Oats. Hofstra has 10 losses this season but at no point all season has Hofstra lost a game by more than eight points. The Holloway situation is reflected in this price, but it remains a double-digit underdog spread with the Pride capable of disrupting Alabama’s offensive pace that will already be impacted with the personnel changes. Hofstra has been a good rebounding team and while Alabama should have some matchup advantages inside, the Pride allowed just 44 percent on 2-point shots this season, the third best average in the nation.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
