Nelly’s Friday R64 Late Night Winner 77% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Missouri vs Miami Florida
- Release Date
- 03/19/2026 05:12 PM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 10:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Missouri +2.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Missouri was an NCAA bubble team most of the season and losing the final three games including a loss to fellow bubble team Oklahoma left some concern for the Tigers on Selection Sunday. Missouri landed comfortably in the field ahead of the First Four pairings and was also handed an ideal location draw playing in St. Louis despite being a #10 seed. Missouri has high-end wins over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee this season and while the loss count of 12 is high, most recent losses were competitive games to quality teams to erase a few blowout losses vs. top competition from early in the season. Turnovers and free throw shooting are concerns for the Missouri offense, but the Tigers have amazing size and are among the nation’s best inside scoring teams and 2-point defensive teams. Miami is also a team that struggles at the free throw line, and the Hurricanes take very few 3-point shots as an offense reliant on interior scoring faces a tough draw. Miami has a glowing 25-8 record but Miami didn’t beat any NCAA Tournament teams in an 11-2 non-conference start and in going 13-5 in the ACC, Miami produced only three wins vs. NCAA Tournament teams and two of those teams, NC State and SMU, were eliminated in the First Four as the early tournament returns for the ACC have not been positive. The win over North Carolina for Miami came in the game Caleb Wilson was injured in while Miami’s narrow ACC Tournament win over Louisville came with Mikel Brown sitting for the Cardinals as Miami lacks a full strength win over a team still standing in the NCAA Tournament despite the 25-win count for the season. This is the first NCAA Tournament game for Jai Lucas who must be commended for a strong first season leading the Hurricanes with the team going 7-24 in Jim Larranaga’s final season. These teams ultimately have rather similar strengths and weaknesses, but Missouri is catching points in quasi-home game, while having a clear size advantage and being less reliant on the inevitable 3-point variance that will occur in a tournament setting.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
