1st ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR >> INSANE 80-41!
- Handicapper
- William Burns
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- California Baptist vs Kansas
- Release Date
- 03/17/2026 11:20 PM
- Event Date
- 03/20/2026 10:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
California Baptist vs Kansas Under 138.5 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- (#767) California Baptist Lancers vs. (#768) Kansas Jayhawks | UNDER | .
This is a very intriguing matchup in my opinion. People love upsets in March and this could definitely be a game where the lower seed come come away with the win in the final moments. But, I'm taking a different approach as I find value in the total of this contest.
California Baptist is phenomenal defensively. With the 50th ranked defensive efficiency in the country, the Lancers also hold teams to very low percentages. Their effective FG% against ranks 15th nationally while they hold opponents to less than 30% from 3pt land which gives them the 6th best in the nation. More importantly, they know how to keep teams out of the paint as the average distance to the hoop on 2s that they allow is 6.4 feet away from the basket which ranks 75th.
Although Kansas plays faster between these two teams, the Jayhawks also are much better on the defensive end. The Jayhawks rank 10th in defensive efficiency and had a horrific offensive showing in their most recent game, scoring only 47 points against another strong defensive group in Houston. If Kansas can't knock down it's shot early, it could be on upset watch. But, even if the Jayhawks are able to score some early baskets, I expect them to slow the game down considering how big this game is.
One thing to note too is that Kansas ranks in the bottom half of the country (211th) in 2pt field goal percentage at 51.1%. With how good the Lancers are at defending the three ball, this is a great matchup for the defenses. This line is too high and I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down a tad before tip.
Burns' Prediction: 65-62 Kansas.
