Vegas Writer - Ball State vs Northern Illinois

VWs CFB MIDDAY POTENTIAL OUTRIGHT DOG SHOCKER

Handicapper
Vegas Writer
League
NCAAF
Competition
Ball State vs Northern Illinois
Release Date
10/25/2025 10:13 AM
Event Date
10/25/2025 03:30 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Ball State +6.5 (-110) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
I don't understand this line, and normally it would raise a red flag for me, seeing a bad team lay a touchdown. But I also see the points coming down a tad, as Northern Illinois has gone from laying 6.5 to 6, so be sure you're getting the best number possible. Fact is, Northern Illinois is simply going through the motions at this point. The Huskies have lost six straight since their season-opening 19-17 win over Holy Cross. NIU - which is an abysmal 5-24-1 ATS in their last 30 home games - is scoring 12.3 points per game, second-lowest nationally. Now you want me to believe it should be laying points to a team that is still hunting for bowl eligibility? The Cardinals arrive in DeKalb, Illinois with a 3-4 mark after upsetting Akron last week, and now come into this one with a relevant trend of 11-1 ATS in MAC play after an upset win. Ball State beat the Huskies as a 12.5-point underdog last season, and while that may reek of revenge, I don't think Northern Illinois has the offensive horses to even trot in this one. One area to brag on with the Cardinals is discipline, as they don't commit many mistakes, ranking tied for 14th nationally with just 4.57 penalties per game. The Huskies don't deserve to lay this many and I'll gladly take the points with Ball State.

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