25* CFB SEC UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Texas A&M vs LSU
- Release Date
- 10/25/2025 10:08 AM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 07:49 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Lsu +2.5 (-105)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. Texas A&M (7-0) has won their first seven games of the season after their 45-42 victory against Arkansas as an 8-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Aggies are primed to get exposed in this game after facing a soft schedule that has not included a ranked team from the SEC. They got outgained by the Razorbacks last week by -30 net yards after surrendering 527 yards in that game. Arkansas generated 8.4 Yards-Per-Carry against them while churning out 268 yards on the ground. They also gave up 13.1 Yards-Per-Play on passing downs. This was not the first time that an opponent exposed this Texas A&M defense. Notre Dame put up 440 yards and 40 points against them. The problems with the Aggies' defense starts with their tackling — they rank 115th in the Pro Football Focus tackling grade after missing 25 combined missed tackles in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida. They also rank 134th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. They stay on the road where they are just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 9 games on the road when favored since Mike Elko became their head coach — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season. LSU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games against SEC rivals after a straight-up loss on the road. Head coach Brian Kelly can take some solace in that his offense generated 6.63 Yards-Per-Play despite only having the ball on offense for 23:29 minutes of that game. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home after gaining 6.25 or more YPP. LSU has lost two games to Ole Miss and the Commodores last week — but they can keep their college football playoff hopes alive by winning the remainder of their games. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home from Weeks Five through Nine. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 19 games at home as an underdog, including four of those six games played since taking over the LSU program.
FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s meeting between these two teams in College Station by a 38-23 score as a 2-point home favorite — but the Tigers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing with revenge. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the LSU Tigers (180) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.
