25* MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAME OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Release Date
- 10/25/2025 08:44 AM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 08:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (921) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (922) listing both starting pitchers Yashinobu Yamamoto and Kevin Gausman in Game Two of the World Series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (102-71) lost the opening game of the World Series last night with their 11-4 loss on the road to the Blue Jays. Toronto (102-72) has won five of their last six games.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DODGERS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Of course, there are never any guarantees (or “locks”), but Game Two was the opportunity I circled since I loved the pitching matchup for the Dodgers — and after the Blue Jays blowout victory, not only has the money-line price on LA dropped below my -150 price threshold, but manager Dave Roberts did not use any of the best Dodgers’ relievers in a game they fell far behind by in the middle innings. Let’s attack! It is no shame losing on the road to a very good Toronto team — and I did have some concerns about Blake Snell in this matchup (one of the reasons why I passed on the game). But Los Angeles remains a team peaking at just the right time after failing to meet their very ambitious expectations in the regular season (by “only” winning the NL West). This remains a team that has won 14 of their last 16 games. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss. They have also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring four runs or less — and they have won 4 of their last 5 games after allowing eight or more runs in their last contest. After opening the season with a 36-40 record away from home, Los Angeles has won 9 of their last 10 games on the road even after last night’s setback. Yamamoto has been outstanding in the postseason with a 1.86 ERA, along with a 0.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .178. In 30 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 12-8 record along with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He was more effective on the road, where he had a 2.13 ERA along with a 0.89 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .168 in 18 starts as opposed to his 3.04 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in 12 starts at home. The deeper sabermetrics confirm his strong regular season. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.32 and 3.05. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 2.73. While those numbers are higher than his regular season ERA, it will work. The Blue Jays ranked fifth and fourth in the regular season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers, they did drop to 12th and 10th in those categories since August 1st. Toronto went on a scoring barrage last night. But they did not score at least a dozen runs — and when they have this season, they have then won eight of their next 11 games. But when the Blue Jays scored seven to 11 runs this season, they then lost 9 of their next 11 contests. Gausman takes the ball after posting a 2-1 record along with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in his three postseason starts. But both his SIERA and xFIP in these playoffs project an ERA of 5.15 and 5.19 moving forward — and this is consistent with his regular season numbers. In 32 starts in the regular season, the right-hander has a 10-11 record with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. His SIERA and XFIP called for an ERA of 3.77, respectively. His xERA was 3.70 in the regular season. He was not as effective at home either — he had a 3.86 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 16 starts at home in the regular season, as compared to his 3.33 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .195 in 16 starts on the road. Since the beginning of September, when the Dodgers started turning up the volume, they rank seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers — and they also rank seventh in MLB since September in those categories when playing on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have won 18 of their 24 games when Yamamoto is on the mound, and they are priced as a money-line favorite in the -115 to -165 range. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Year with the money-line on the Los Angeles Dodgers (921) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (922) listing both starting pitchers Yashinobu Yamamoto and Kevin Gausman. Best of luck for us — Frank.
