Team Del Genio - Mississippi vs Oklahoma

TDG’s NCAA-F SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

Handicapper

Team Del Genio

League

NCAAF

Competition

Mississippi vs Oklahoma

Release Date

10/25/2025 06:37 AM

Event Date

10/25/2025 12:00 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Oklahoma -4.5 (-115) (DraftKings)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

Our 25* NCAA-F SEC Game of the Month is on Oklahoma minus the points versus Mississippi at noon et. The Oklahoma Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry two weeks ago with a 26-7 victory against South Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last week. The Sooners' defense held the Gamecocks to only 224 yards. They remain firmly in the mix to reach the college football playoffs with their 6-1 record. They have beaten Michigan, Auburn, and the Gamecocks this year, and they get the opportunity this afternoon to add another high-quality win to their resume. Oklahoma has one of the best defenses in college football. They are only giving up 9.4 points per game and 213 yards per game. The most points and yards they have given up all year were the 23 points and the 299 yards that the Longhorns put up against them. The Sooners have covered the point spread in five of their last six games at home after playing a game where they did not give up more than 14 points. They have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games at home when playing on normal rest. They have covered the point spread in six straight home games after their previous game on the road. Part of what contributed to their loss to Texas was the right-hand injury to quarterback Josh Mateer. He returned for that game, yet was limited in his throwing accuracy. He was more effective last week by completing 18 of 26 passes for 150 yards with a touchdown and without any turnovers. Another week should help him get closer to 100% again. Against Michigan, he completed 21 of 34 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown pass, and he ran for another 76 yards with two more touchdowns from 19 carries. He was in the Heisman Trophy conversation after that game before injuring his throwing hand. Head coach Brent Venables will use the memory of the Sooners’ 26-14 loss at Ole Miss last season. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in ten of their previous fourteen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite. Mississippi began their season with six straight victories. Yet that streak got snapped last week in a 43-35 loss at Georgia. The Rebels gave up 510 yards in the loss. They also gave up 35 points to Arkansas before they fired their head coach, Sam Pittman. Last year, the Rebels ranked second in the country by giving up only 14.4 points per game. That team was supposed to compete for a national championship with Jaxson Dart at quarterback and two wide receivers who got drafted into the NFL. That defense lost five players to the NFL, and it shows. Losing important games in the second half of the season has become head coach Lane Kiffin’s trademark. They failed to make the playoff last year after getting upset on the road at Florida despite being a double-digit favorite. Mississippi has covered the point spread four times in their previous eleven games after the first month of the season. They have covered the point spread in three of their previous nine games after a loss on the road, and Kiffin’s teams in his head coaching career have covered the point spread in nine of their twenty-six games after losing on the road in their previous game. The quarterback position is unsettled heading into this game. Redshirt sophomore Austin Simmons began the year as the starter before getting injured. Senior Trinidad Chambliss, a transfer from Ferris State, has been better than expected and will get the start this afternoon, although Simmons is healthy again. Chambliss completed 19 of 36 passes last week against Georgia for 263 yards, yet Ole Miss only gained 351 yards in that game. Their defense could not get the Bulldogs off the field and controlled the time of possession for over 33 minutes. Oklahoma holds their opponents to 80 rushing yards per game, and the Rebels have covered the point spread in four of their previous eleven games against opponents who do not give up more than 120 rushing yards per game. Mississippi is 11-22-2 ats in their previous thirty-five games against conference opponents, and they have covered the point spread in three of their previous nine games on the road against SEC teams. Since Kiffin took over the program, the Rebels have covered the point spread just twice in their seven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog getting up to seven points. Play Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck - Team Del Genio.