- Analysis
- At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). THE SITUATION: Ball State (3-4) has won two of their last three games after their 42-28 upset victory at home against Akron as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Northern Illinois (1-6) has lost six games in a row after their 48-21 loss at Ohio as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State upset the Bobcats team that just beat the Huskies by 27 points earlier this season by a 20-14 score despite being a 14-point underdog. Their opening two games were on the road at Power Four conference opponents Purdue and Auburn to begin the season. The Cardinals typically play better as the season moves forward. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset victory and now facing a fellow Mid-American Conference rival. Looking back, it turns out that the Cardinals’ Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 was simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season. Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since. Neu was fired with two games left in a season where they finished just 3-9. The Cardinals posted an 18-31 record overall and a 12-20 conference mark in the last four years since that triumph. The administration appears to have made a good hire in Butler head coach Mike Uremovich, who turned that struggling FCS program around with a 23-11 record in his three seasons. The former Temple and Northern Illinois offensive coordinator is a familiar face for high school coaches in Indiana — and he has experience coaching in the MAC. He reunited with defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles, who took over running the Ball State defense last year after serving as the Bulldogs' DC under Knowles. That unit was a disaster last season, ranking 131st and 124th in the nation by surrendering 40.1 Points-Per-Game and 454.9 total Yards-Per-Game. Three starters are back from that group — and Uremovich brought in ten transfers. Uremovich gave the keys to the offense to senior Kiael Kelly, who started the final six games under center in 2023. With redshirt freshman Kadin Semonza returning for his second season after taking his redshirt after starting the first four games in 2023, the coaching staff wanted to utilize Kelly’s athleticism by moving him to the secondary and then the wide receiver room. Uremovich’s reputation is that he adapts his offensive schemes to his talent — so returning to the run-heavy RPO approach used with Kelly in those final six games is likely. While he only completed 53% of his passes, he ran for 724 yards and seven touchdowns. More importantly, Ball State went 3-3 in his six starts — and their three losses were all decided by one scoring possession. Running the ball more will certainly help the defense, with the offense burning more time off the clock. The Cardinals executed that game plan last week with Kelly running the ball for 58 yards and scoring three touchdowns. He added another 121 yards in the air with a passing touchdown. Ball State should continue to improve in the second half of the season under Uremovich. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against MAC rivals. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois opens the season by beating an FBS opponent, Holy Cross. In their six losses since, all against FBS opponents, they are only scoring 11.2 Points-Per-Game. They have not been a resilient team following a setback under head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. Northern Illinois comes off an 8-5 season that was highlighted by their early September upset victory against Notre Dame. Their 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference was a disappointment. Only three starters are back with the roster hit hard by graduation and transfers. Both coordinators are new as well. Division II Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders will run the offense after overseeing a 27-3 record the last three seasons and generating 44 Points-Per-Game in his four-year tenure. Northern Illinois moved away from their power running game approach to an up-tempo spread offense that may be a better fit for their eventual move to the Mountain West Conference, in the long run. Considering that the Huskies have ranked 115th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ offensive rankings in two straight seasons, perhaps a change in philosophy on that side of the ball was warranted. But in the short run, it’s not working. They only gained 293 yards last week against the Bobcats. After only bringing 15 transfers from 2022 to 2024, Hammock brought in 13 transfers this year, probably out of necessity, given all the roster turnover. That’s not working either. As it is, Northern Illinois is just 5-32-2 ATS in their last 39 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home against teams with a losing record. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals are getting outscored by -13.3 Points-Per-Game (much of that coming from their -70 net point differential against Purdue and Auburn) — but the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams that were getting outscored by -10 or more PPG. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (157) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
