Nelly's Early Start ACC Delivery 16-7 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- SMU vs Wake Forest
- Release Date
- 10/24/2025 03:01 PM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 12:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Wake Forest +3 (-105)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- SMU didn’t look like an ACC contender going 2-2 in non-conference play to start the season, but the Mustangs are 3-0 in conference play after getting past Clemson last week. Only three teams in the ACC are without a conference loss at this point and SMU has outscored its conference opponents by 48 points. SMU will play Miami and Louisville at home in the coming weeks as a return trip to the ACC Championship game can’t be ruled out for last year’s finalists. SMU has faced a backup quarterback in two of three ACC wins however with the only exception the win against Stanford and that contest was a much closer game than the final score with a 96-yard interception return in the 4th quarter a major swing in the result. This is now a second straight road game for SMU and in the team’s toughest non-conference road game SMU lost 35-24 at TCU. In a transition season while predicted to finish near the bottom of the conference, Wake Forest is 4-2 overall as a bowl bid is realistic, though the record includes just a 1-2 ACC record. Wake Forest was off last week ahead of this big home game and in the last home game the Demon Deacons nearly beat undefeated Georgia Tech in a tough 30-29 finish, a game they easily could have won against a team that now sits in the top 10 of the polls. Wake Forest lost by 10 hosting NC State in the conference opener in a prime time game and that was a tie game in the 4th quarter. Those narrow losses keep Wake Forest modestly valued despite an impressive ground attack led by Demond Claiborne. SMU has good defensive results against the run for the season, but they allowed significant rushing production in both losses. Wake Forest has made things tough on opposing quarterbacks featuring a 105.1 QB Rating against which is the fourth best nationally and the numbers have been even better in recent weeks. In contrast SMU has a national ranking of 79th in opposing QB Rating. Jake Dickert has proven himself as a quality coach and off a bye week while SMU is coming off avenging its ACC title game defeat, the Demon Deacons are an appealing home underdog. SMU is also just 10-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2017. Robby Ashford sat out Wake Forest’s win over Oregon State, but he is probable to return, while Deshawn Purdie has played well and didn’t offer a drop off for the offense.
Thank you for playing with Nelly's and Best of Luck.
