Nelly's Sun Belt Game of the Month 16-7 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- UL Lafayette vs Troy
- Release Date
- 10/24/2025 02:53 PM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Ul Lafayette +9.5 (-112)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Troy is 3-0 in SBC play while +37 in scoring, averaging nearly 39 points per game to sit tied with Southern Miss in the SBC West standings. The Trojans are also just a win away from bowl eligibility in Gerad Parker’s second season after the team went 4-8 with only three SBC wins last season, following up a great two-season run under Jon Sumrall. Troy has two overtime wins along with last week’s road win at Monroe in SBC play, as it has been far from a dominant run for the Trojans to sit in contention in the division standings. Monroe outgained Troy last week but the Trojans pulled away thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. It has been a difficult season for Louisiana to sit at just 2-5 but the defense has stepped up with respectable low-scoring losses to the two division favorites in the past two SBC games before last week’s bye week. Holding James Madison to 24 points and Southern Miss to 22 points will likely hold up as strong performances for the Ragin’ Cajuns on defense. Injuries have forced Louisiana to play three quarterbacks significantly this season, but Lunch Winfield has proven to be the best option, now taking the bulk of the snaps so far in SBC play. With Winfield and his rushing ability added to a competent passing game, this has been a more competitive team compared to the results under Daniel Beale and Walker Howard earlier in the season. Louisiana has been the far more reliable rushing attack in comparing these teams, posting 4.9 yards per carry this season in contrast to just 3.0 yards per carry for the Trojans. Tucker Kilcrease has outperformed original Troy starting quarterback Goose Crowder this season, but a closer look reveals one amazing five-touchdown game in a high-scoring overtime win at Texas State and rather mediocre numbers in every other game. Troy is just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite under Parker while Louisiana is 6-3 ATS when dogged by seven or more points under Michael Desormeaux.
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