TOM'S 23-0 NCAA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Texas A&M vs LSU
- Release Date
- 10/24/2025 11:36 AM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 07:49 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Lsu +2.5 (-105)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #180 LSU (+) over Texas A&M at 7:30 PM EST
In a nasty mood off a seven-point road loss to No. 17 Vanderbilt and with blemishes in two of its last three games, LSU will step up in a big way and pull off the upset over undefeated Texas A&M on Saturday night. The Aggies escaped with a 45-42 road win over the Razorbacks last week and they won’t be as fortunate when they tackle the hungry Tigers in Baton Rouge. Let’s take a peek inside the numbers.
One thing you don’t want to do is fade the Bayou Bengals at home in a night game. Inside Tiger Stadium with the lights on and head coach Brian Kelly on the sidelines, LSU owns a stunning 20-1 SU record and has won by an average score of 40-17. Equally impressive, at home this season, the Tigers have won all four of their games against LA Tech, Florida, SE Louisiana, and South Carolina by an average of 20.5 points per game. In addition, in their own backyard arriving without momentum off a straight up loss, Coach Kelly and his players hold a powerful 35-5 SU and 19-14-1 ATS record in their last 40 games including an elite 21-5 SU and 16-9-1 ATS provided they are fighting a conference opponent.
Considering Texas A&M (-1.5) pounded LSU last year at home by the final of 38-23, this is going to be a difficult rematch for the Aggies. Overall, head coach Mike Elko and his squad have struggled in this series inking a dismal 4-10 SU and 2-12 ATS record. As a guest in this run, A&M falls to a miserable 0-6 SU and ATS and has lost by an average of 19.7 points per game. Additionally, in true road wars matched up against an opponent that holds a team won/loss percentage of .650 or higher, the Aggies own a horrible 26-64 SU and 25-64-1 ATS mark including a shocking 5-27 SU and 4-27-1 ATS in their last 32 provided they take the field off a pointspread loss. With those two parameters live and Coach Elko’s troops priced as a favorite or an underdog of +18 or less, this angle crashes to a jaw-dropping 3-21 SU and 0-23-1 ATS.
Coach Kelly has the burners turned on high in Baton Rouge right now and he knows an upset win over the No. 3 team in the country will turn off the gas temporarily. Take LSU. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
