ASA SEC *GAME OF THE MONTH* DAY GAME! 80% RUN
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Texas vs Mississippi State
- Release Date
- 10/24/2025 01:41 AM
- Event Date
- 10/25/2025 04:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Mississippi State +7.5 (-121)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #176 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - Texas continues to be vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are just 2-5 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. On the other end, MSU has been and continues to be undervalued. They are 6-1 ATS this year and have already beaten a very good Arizona State team here and they took Tennessee to OT. The Vols had 2 defensive TD’s in that game and the Bulldogs still pushed them to overtime where they lost by 7. This will be the 2nd straight road game for the Horns. Last week they traveled to Kentucky, who we have rated as the worst team in the SEC, and squeaked out a 16-13 win in OT. Take a look at the stats in that game. Texas had a total of 179 yards (including the 2 OT’s) and Kentucky, whose offense isn’t great (94th in total offense), had 395 yards. The Horns offense is bad. They rank outside the top 70 in total offense, passing, rushing, and scoring. Their offensive line has been a disaster and QB Manning has been average at best. MSU is coming off a 2 point loss @ Florida last Saturday in a game they outgained the Gators. Their only non-competitive game was @ Texas A&M and that was the week after they came off their OT home loss vs Tennessee and had a number of guys on the shelf with injuries after that one. Their offense has been solid averaging over 400 YPG and 32 PPG. MSU’s defense has been solid holding 5 of their 7 opponents to 23 points or less. This is a huge home game for State while Texas has bigger fish to fry next weekend when they host top 10 Vanderbilt. We think this one stays close and wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulldogs pull the upset.
