- Analysis
- At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns to action after their 14-2 season that culminated in their 24-23 loss against Ohio State in the national championship game. Miami (FL) (0-0) comes off a 10-3 season that ended in a 42-411 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: I have considered the Fighting Irish “flat-track bullies” who too often fold when facing elite competition — but I concede this is a perspective that requires re-evaluation after they reached the National Championship Game before losing a closely contested contest against Ohio State by a 24-23 score. I consider their semifinals victory against Penn State as mostly a “someone had to win the Spiderman versus Spiderman pointing meme” result — but Notre Dame did beat Georgia to reach that game. We are in a new paradigm — and in a world where the bluest of blue bloods simply do not have the same elite depth, programs like the Fighting Irish are helped. No longer is an Alabama team going to be able to bring Tua Tagovailoa off the bench in the National Championship Game to replace Jalen Hurts and rally to win that game. Great players not getting playing time are going to go get paid with NIL money and get their playing time at competitive alternatives. I happen to think the Ohio State and Michigan teams that won the last two national championships ended an era of truly elite, talented teams. They were the final exceptions of a bygone era whose foundations were laid as the transition of this sport was underway. So while the elite are dropping back to Notre Dame’s level, it must be recognized that the Fighting Irish are poised to thrive in this new era. Head coach Marcus Freeman is winning the transfer portal. He’s a great recruiter — and players choosing to play in South Bend, generally, do not want to leave. He did lose a few players in the portal in the offseason — but these were players who lost their starting jobs. And Freeman is doing a great job in targeting key players in the transfer portal to fill holes. With their rabid alumni base, the Fighting Irish NIL program is strong. The result is what appears to be the ideal situation in this new era: strong recruiting classes, high retention of those players, and then targeted but aggressive transfer portal work. After not winning a major bowl game since 1993, Notre Dame accumulated high-profile wins in both the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl by beating Georgia and Penn State. Winning big games is what this is all about. Six starters return on offense — and the biggest question will be at quarterback. I criticized Freeman for bypassing younger quarterbacks for the quick sugar high fix of limited QBs like Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard — but he is likely turning to redshirt freshman C.J. Carr to run the offense this season. The grandson of former national champion-winning head coach Lloyd Carr at Michigan, he has elite arm talent and a high football IQ. I like this move — although the loss of Leonard’s success rate with the tush-push in short yardage situations may be underrated. The Irish have a spectacular backfield of juniors Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price, along with ball catcher Aneyas Williams. The offensive line should be one of the best in the county. The emergence of wide receiver junior Jaden Greathouse in the playoffs last year, along with some portal wins, is making the relative liability of the wide receiver room against the top competition into a strength. The Notre Dame defense has consistently been quite good. They recruit very well and now bring back 12 of the 20 players who played 200 or more snaps. They lose NFL talent with defensive tackle Rylie Mills, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Benjamin Morris, and safety Xavier Watts, along with captain at nose tackle Howard Cross III, all moving on — but the Irish have been able to reload on this side of the ball. Perhaps the bigger loss was defensive coordinator Al Golden, who replaced Lou Anarumo as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Freeman turned to Chris Ash to run his defense, who has a similar profile as Golden as a defensive coach with NFL experience, with a turn as a head coach in college. I credit Freeman for elevating this program to a level that should ensure consistent playoff berths, given their soft schedules as an independent. How will Notre Dame do against the big boys? In this new paradigm, I’m higher on their chances, yet retain a healthy skepticism of “I will believe it when I see it.” They should outclass Miami (FL). The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. And in their last 8 games on the road, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those contests. As some things change with the Hurricanes, other things frustratingly remain the same under head coach Mario Cristobal. In his fourth year with the program, he is doing a good job bringing talent into the program from both recruiting high school players and being aggressive in the transfer portal. But blown leads and game management remain significant problems. Two years ago, in their 7-6 campaign, in their four losses decided by seven points, the Miami (FL) blew a second-half lead in each contest. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech that season was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. The Hurricanes opened up last season by going 9-0. Then Miami lost on the road against Georgia Tech. At 10-1 and a berth in the ACC championship game on the line, they blew a 21-point lead at Syracuse in an upset loss that cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. Cristobal made another controversial decision with under four minutes left in the game, trailing by seven points, to take the ball out of quarterback Cam Ward’s hand and settle for a field goal on fourth down at the 10-yard line. While the odds of success in executing a fourth-and-10 are not high, were they much worse than the chances of the Miami defense stopping the Orange’s offense, which had scored touchdowns on four of their previous five possessions to take the lead? Besides, failing on fourth down requires the defense to step up as much as cutting the deficit to four points with the field goal, albeit with Syracuse pinned back deep on their side of the field. The Hurricanes then blew another lead in a 42-41 loss to Iowa State in the Pop Tarts Bowl (although Ward did not play in the second half of that game). Ward is gone to the NFL after leading a Miami offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense. Cristobal looked to the transfer portal as well to bring in Georgia quarterback Carson Beck for his final season. Beck bypassed the NFL to take what has been reported as a $4.2 million NIL deal — but he was not getting drafted before Day Three, so he is making more money this year by staying in school. South Beach was an attractive choice because his girlfriend played basketball for the Hurricanes —but the rumors are that the couple has since split up. Beck is also coming off elbow surgery on his throwing hand. With all this static, it is not given that he is a simple plug-and-play replacement for Ward. Decision-making was an issue last year as he threw 12 interceptions for Georgia. The wide receiver room lost their top five targets last season — it is a vastly more inexperienced room than the one Ward enjoyed. The defense continued to struggle against good teams as they surrendered 31 or more points six times. Cristobal turned to Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to run his defense after the Golden Gophers ranked fifth in the nation in total defense — but he is their third DC in four years. Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Cristobal added nine more players in the transfer portal, including five in the defensive secondary. Miami finally won 10 games under Cristobal -- but with big questions at wide receiver and the secondary, the likely downgrade at the quarterback position after Ward's spectacular season, and the proclivity to find ways to blow leads, it is difficult to expect an improvement on last year's results. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog under Cristobal. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games in the first half of the season in the Cristobal era.
FINAL TAKE: Heavy rain is expected at some point in this game — the latest weather report I saw calls for a heavy downpour around 9 PM ET. I think the inclement weather favors Notre Dame, which can rely on their running backs and great offensive line, along with their defense. The Hurricanes are an error-prone team — and the bad weather just adds to the chaos. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Miami (FL) ABC-TV Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (231) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.
