MLB SUNDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Release Date
- 08/31/2025 07:00 PM
- Event Date
- 08/31/2025 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Phillies -150
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) and the Atlanta Braves (953) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Hurston Waldrep. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (79-57) has won the first three games of this series after their 3-2 victory at home against the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta (61-75) has lost three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PHILLIES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: With the money-line price on Philadelphia dropping into the -150 range in many spots in the last hour, I am comfortable investing in them as a featured play since it fits into my -150 price threshold. The Phillies should keep rolling tonight as they have won 29 of their last 46 home games after winning their last game. They have also won 8 of their last 13 home games after a win by one run. Additionally, they have won 40 of their last 57 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. They have also won 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have won 13 of their last 18 home games against fellow NL East rivals. Luzardo gets the ball, looking to improve his 12-6 record along with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he deserves better. Both his SIERA and xFIP projects an ERA of 3.52 and 3.35 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 3.55. He has been seeing better results lately. In his last six starts, he has enjoyed a 3.09 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He faces a Braves team without right-handed slugger Ronald Acuna that ranks just 16th in MLB since May 1st in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against left-handed pitchers. Atlanta has lost 14 of their last 19 road games after losing two or more games in a row. The Braves have also lost 22 of their last 32 games as a road underdog — and they have lost 10 of their last 13 road games as a money-line underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Waldrep, who has a 4-0 record along with a 0.90 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in his five games (four starts). The deeper metrics call for significant regression. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.90 and 3.70. His xERA sits at 3.21. In his 91 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, he had a 4.42 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP — and his xFIP indicated he deserved that ERA, sitting exactly at 4.42. The Phillies rank first and second in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: The Braves have lost 14 of their last 20 games on the road when playing with double-revenge. 10* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Philadelphia Phillies (954) and the Atlanta Braves (953) listing both starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Hurston Waldrep. Best of luck for us — Frank.
