25* ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- SOCCER
- Competition
- Arsenal vs Liverpool
- Release Date
- 08/31/2025 11:27 AM
- Event Date
- 08/31/2025 11:30 AM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Arsenal vs Liverpool Over 2.5 (-119)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (200113) and Liverpool (200114). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W2-D0-L0) comes off a 3-2 victory at Newcastle United in their last match in the English Premier League on Monday. Arsenal (W2-D0-L0) beat Leeds United by a 5-0 score in their most recent EPL match on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I am concerned about the Liverpool defense. Despite Newcastle’s Aaron Gordon getting issued a red card in the final moments of the first half, the Reds surrendered two goals in the second half despite the Magpies playing with only ten men. Liverpool has retooled their backline this season, with the biggest news being that Trent Alexander-Arnold left the club for Real Madrid. The Reds have two new fullbacks — and finding cohesion has been shaky in the preseason. They have conceded goals in each of their last seven matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered 14 combined goals during that span. In their two EPL matches so far this season, they have given up four goals, which ranks tied for fourth most in the league. The 3.54 expected Goals Allowed (xGA) in their two EPL matches is also the fourth most in the league. But led by Mohamed Salah, the Pool Boys' scoring attack remains explosive in the second season under manager Arne Slot. They scored 86 goals in their 38 matches for a 2.26 Goals-Per-Game average — and their expected Goals rose to 93.24. They have scored seven goals in their two EPL matches this month. When playing at home at Anfield last year in the EPL, Liverpool did surrender more than 1.0 expected goals per match. In their opening match at home against Bournemouth, the Reds gave up two goals and 1.7 xGA. Arsenal has scored six goals in the EPL so far this season — and their 4.07 expected Goals (xG) is the second most in the league. They have shut out both their opponents — but that may speak more about the attacking quality of Leeds United and the current mess that is Manchester United. Those two squads did generate 1.53 xG. The Gunners will be without Martin Odegaard on their back line, which will not help their cause. Their attack is without Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz due to injuries for this match, but manager Mikel Arteta has a balanced offensive squad — and they added Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres in the summer transfer portal. Arsenal averaged 1.9 xG last season in the EPL with little drop off when playing on the road, given their 1.8 xG in those 19 league contests.
FINAL TAKE: In the last seven matches between these two sides, the average combined goals scored was 3.57 — and both teams scored goals in six of those seven contests. Five of the last six EPL matches between these two teams finished with Over 2.5 Goals scored. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (200113) and Liverpool (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
