2024 Conference USA Football Preview
by Matt Fargo
Tuesday, Jul 02, 20242024 Conference USA Conference Preview Regular Season Win Totals and C-USA Championship Odds (via DraftKings) Liberty: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/-200 C-USA WinnerJacksonville State: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115/+550 C-USA WinnerWestern Kentucky: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+450 C-USA WinnerFIU: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+10,000 C-USA WinnerLouisiana Tech: 5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,500 C-USA WinnerMiddle Tennessee: 5 Over -115 Under -105/+3,000 C-USA WinnerNew Mexico State: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+7,500 C-USA WinnerSam Houston: 4.5 Over -125 Under +105/+1,800 C-USA WinnerUTEP: 4 Over -125 Under +105/+6,000 C-USA WinnerKennesaw State: 2.5 Over +100 Under -120/+30,000 C-USA Winner Coaching Changes Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill Out ~ Derek Mason InNew Mexico State: Jerry Kill Out ~ Tony Sanchez InUTEP: Dana Dimel Out ~ Scotty Walden In Liberty Flames 13-1 ~ 8-0 C-USA ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8 Liberty entered the FBS in 2018 and it has yet to endure a losing season, putting together a 53-23 record following a 13-1 mark last season. The Flames blew through the regular season undefeated and then defeated New Mexico St. in the C-USA Championship Game before losing to Oregon 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl. Only two of the victories were by single digits so they dominated throughout and are the clear cut favorites to repeat this season and try and get a shot in the CFP although based on the bowl game last year, they may not be able to compete with the big boys. Second year head coach Jamey Chadwell is a hot commodity after leading Coastal Carolina to a 31-7 record prior to taking over at Liberty so another big season and he will be gone. Returning is quarterback Kaidon Salter who broke the school record with 44 touchdowns but he does lose four of his top five receivers. However, The Flames were the No. 1 rushing team and will rely on that again. Defensively, they were just average but that is all they needed and they should be better with eight starters back. Liberty played a very easy schedule last season and it is easy again in 2024, listed as the weakest slate in the country. The only nonconference test is at Appalachian St. and the two toughest C-USA games are at home. Jacksonville State Gamecocks 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 4 The Gamecocks entered their first season at the FBS level in 2023 and it was a surprisingly resounding success as they finished 9-4 which included a win over Louisiana 33-30 in overtime in the New Orleans Bowl, becoming the first team ever to win a bowl game in its first season moving up to D-1. It could be a challenge getting to nine wins again with the way the schedule is set up but an overall very weak conference will lend a hand in the success. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has had success throughout his career with only four losing campaigns in his 17 FBS seasons so the success last year should not be all that much of a surprise. Jacksonville St. had 15 starters back last season but it only has nine coming back this season and loses a lot in key areas. The offense was adequate last season but the Gamecocks have to replace their quarterback, three top running backs and two top receivers. There will be a quarterback battle between Logan Smothers, who saw decent action last season, and Connecticut transfer Zion Turner. The defense led the way with a strong pass rush and third down defense but the majority has to be replaced. They have two tough nonconference games against Coastal Carolina and at Louisville and they have to travel to both Liberty and Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8-5 ~ 5-3 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5 It was a third straight winning season for the Hilltoppers despite bringing back only 10 starters and the 8-5 record could have been better as two of the losses were by three points on the road. Western Kentucky has had winning seasons in 10 out of the last 13 following a 4-32 stretch from 2008-2010 which were three of its first four years at the FBS level. The Hilltoppers return their most starters since 2020 and the offense should be better with nine starters back following an inconsistent season where they were No. 53 overall and No. 48 in scoring. Western Kentucky does lose quarterback Austin Reed and top receiver Malachi Corley but three receivers with starting experience that combined for 1,244 yards are back and it got T.J. Finley from the transfer portal who threw for 3,439 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions at Texas St. after stops at LSU and Auburn. The running game will have to improve to take some pressure off after finishing No. 119 last season. The Hilltoppers return only five players on defense from a unit that was No. 110 overall and No. 94 in points allowed. They get Eastern Kentucky but the other three nonconference games are Alabama, Toledo and Boston College. They do not face Liberty or Jacksonville St. until the final two weeks which could be a big edge if healthy. FIU Panthers 4-8 ~ 1-7 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6 It was another disappointing season for the Panthers which suffered their fifth straight losing season as they were two wins away from bowl eligibility with four games left but lost all four of those, getting outscored 166-70 to finish 4-8. Florida International head coach Mike Macintyre is in his third season and while he is a well-known name mainly because of his time in Colorado from 2013-2018 but he has not had a ton of success with a career record of 54-81 in 11 seasons. While it is not a complete rebuild, the Panthers have 14 starters coming back and they are No. 3 in experience in C-USA, but the talent is not where it should be coming from where they come from. They were bad on both sides in 2023 with the passing offense ranking of No. 59 being the only unit to finish inside the top 100. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is very talented but he needs to be more efficient and accurate as he had an 11:11 TD:INT ration while completing just over 58 percent of his passes. The running game needs to improve behind a weak offensive line. The defense allowed 34 or more points seven times including 40 of more four times. The schedule is tame with tough trips to Indiana and Florida Atlantic and while most of C-USA is just as bad as the Panthers, the have to go to both Liberty and Jacksonville St. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5 A winning record and a bowl invite were pretty much guarantees for Louisiana Tech not so long ago as from 2011-2020, the Bulldogs had only one losing season that included eight bowl games (they turned down an invitation in 2012) but they have gone 3-9 in each of the last three seasons. Head coach Sonny Cumbie is in his third season after taking over for Skip Holtz and his job could be on the line should he put together another similar season in Ruston. He had success as offensive coordinator at TCU and Texas Tech and brought in the Air Raid offense which has had success, just not consistently. The Bulldogs were still average at No. 67 in total offense and No. 76 in scoring offense and now have to replace their quarterback, three top receivers and leading running back as well as both offensive tackles. There is not much experience at quarterback and there will likely be a short leash. While there was a lack on consistency on offense, the defense was bad most of the time as Louisiana Tech was No. 109 overall and No. 117 in scoring and they really stumbled down the stretch. This unit also has to replace six starters which may not be a bad thing. The Bulldogs have two tough nonconference games at NC State and Arkansas but in C-USA, they catch a break and miss Liberty entirely which is like a win. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-8 ~ 3-5 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3 Former Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill took this program to a bowl game ten times in his 18 seasons but it was not good enough as he was fired after a 4-8 finish last season. He had a losing record only seven times but he won more than eight games only once when the Blue Raiders went 10-3 in 2009 so now it will be up to former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason to try and advance the program. He was just 27-55 in seven seasons with the Commodores but coaching in the SEC on a perennial poor team and coaching in C-USA are two different things. The bad news is that it looks to be a rebuilding season as they have only seven starters back overall. Offensively, at least they get their quarterback, leading receiver and leading rusher back but they have to replace four starters along the offensive line although there is some experience. Middle Tennessee was No. 62 in total offense last season so that could be hard to replicate if the line does not progress. The Blue Raiders were not as good on defense and this is another situation where a lack of returnees from a bad unit may not be a horrible thing. They have a tough nonconference slate with games against Mississippi, Memphis and Duke and within the conference, they get Liberty and Western Kentucky at home. New Mexico State Aggies 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 3 New Mexico St. was the surprise of the conference last season as it opened with a bad loss at home against Massachusetts but then went on a 10-2 run which included a win at Auburn and made it to the C-USA Championship Game but lost to Liberty 49-35 before losing to Fresno St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. That was only the third bowl game for the Aggies since 1960 but it was the second in two years and now, they have to do it without head coach Jerry Kill who proved what a good coach he is by winning 17 games in his two years after the program won a combined 26 games in the previous 10 seasons. Tony Sanchez takes over after going 20-40 at UNLV from 2015-2019 in his only other head coaching experience and he is walking into a tough situation with New Mexico St. bringing back only eight starters. The biggest loss is at quarterback with Diego Pavia coming off a great season and there is little to no experience at the position. The Aggies also lost their top six receivers that accumulated 2,275 yards. Defensively is where they really overachieved as they had only four starters back and that drops to three for this season after finishing No. 46 in scoring defense. They have games at Texas A&M and a rematch at Fresno St. and the C-USA schedule is fairly frontloaded which is not ideal. Sam Houston Bearkats 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 4 San Houston St. was the other of the two teams entering C-USA and the Bearkats did not have the same success that Jacksonville St. had. They started very slow as the offense could not get going, managing more than 16 points only once in their first six games while starting 0-8. Sam Houston did win three of its last four games to produce some momentum heading into this season which is expected to be better. Head coach K.C. Keeler has a proven track record here and he will have this team ready but the Bearkats might still be a year away although anything can happen in this conference. Sam Houston ended up No. 119 in total offense and No. 118 in scoring offense and had a much better second half where is averaged 28.9 ppg over the final six games. A new quarterback will be taking over and it will be either Hunter Watson, a JUCO transfer who won a National Championship, or Jase Bauer, a transfer from Central Michigan. Overall, eight other starters are back including four along the offensive line. The defense kept some of the losses close but now they have to replace seven starters, each line needing multiple replacements. The nonconference schedule is sneaky hard with Rice, UCF and Texas St. and the only team they miss in the conference is Middle Tennessee. UTEP Miners 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 5 It has been an up and down stretch for UTEP which had a 2-34 stretch in 2017-2019 and was slowly starting to improve but bottomed back out at 3-9 last year and head coach Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons. UTEP hired Scotty Walden from Austin Peay where he went 26-14 in four seasons and he brought over a lot of his coaching staff and also lured a bunch of his players to join him which could give this team some cohesion early in the season considering the Miners only have nine of their own starters coming back. UTEP could not score last season as it averaged just under 20 ppg which was No. 119 in the country as they scored 14 or fewer points in six of their 12 games. Walden knows offense, his Austin Peay team was No. 14 in total offense in the FCS last season and this will be an improved unit despite the top four receivers moving on as the portal is helping out. The entire offensive line has to be replaced but two starters from Austin Peay will begin the process. Defensively, the Miners were very solid and they do have to replace some key players but the secondary will be the strength once again. Nebraska, Colorado St. and Tennessee make up 3/4 of the nonconference slate and while they only take on two of the top three teams in C-USA, both of those are on the road. Kennesaw State Owls 3-6 ~ 0-0 Ind ~ 2-4-0 ATS ~ 0-0-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9 Kennesaw St. is the newcomer to the conference in 2024 after having some success at the FCS level, albeit not in the last couple years. Last season was a throwaway one for the Owls as they played only nine games and redshirted numerous players after four games to give them that extra year which will eventually put them in a good place, just likely not this season. This program has only been around for nine years so the fact that seven of those resulted in winning seasons shows the coaching staff can take credit for that led by Brian Bohannon who has been here from the very start. Because of the redshirts, there is a lot of experience as the Owls are the fourth most experienced team in the conference but taking a step up is no easy task. Offensively, they run a pistol offense which can benefit them with the competition not having much experience going against that but there is not much experience at quarterback which can hurt early on. There is plenty of depth at running back and receiver to help make up for that. The defense can help carry them for a while with nine starters back on a unit that allowed just 17.9 ppg but again, they move up. The nonconference schedule is not horrible but the schedule makers did them no favors as four C-USA games are against teams coming off a bye.
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