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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 08/03/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Aug 03, 2024

The Saturday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:05 p.m. ET. Carlos Rodon takes the ball for the Yankees to face Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays. New York is a -185 money-line favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Chicago Cubs play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Cubs tap Jameson Taillon to pitch against the Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson. Chicago is a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8 at BetMGM. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 4:05 p.m. ET. Aaron Civale takes the mound for the Brewers to go against D.J. Herz for the Nationals. Milwaukee is a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Kansas City Royals play in Detroit against the Tigers at 6:10 p.m. ET. The Royals send out Michael Lorenzen to battle against a Tigers starting pitcher yet to be named. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:40 p.m. ET. Mitch Keller gets the start for the Pirates to challenge Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh is a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are in Texas to play the Rangers at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Red Sox turn to Tanner Houck to duel against a Rangers starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET. Bailey Ober gets the ball for the Twins to pitch against Garrett Crochet for the White Sox. Minnesota is a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Baseball Night in America on Fox features three games in its regional coverage at 7:15 p.m. ET. Houston plays at home against Tampa Bay with the Astros tapping Ronel Blanco to face the Rays’ Zach Littell. The Astros are a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Baltimore is at home against Cleveland with Zach Eflin making his second start since getting traded to the Orioles to battle against Joey Cantillo for the Guardians. The Orioles are a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Cincinnati is at home against San Francisco with the Reds sending out Hunter Greene to challenge the Giants’ Kyle Harrison. The Reds are a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves have yet to name their starting pitcher who will face the Marlins’ Kyle Tyler. Atlanta is a -250 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET. Martin Perez makes his debut for the Padres after being acquired from Pittsburgh to duel against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Rockies. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Oakland to play the A’s at 9:07 p.m. ET. The Dodgers debut their new starting pitcher Jack Flaherty who they picked up from Detroit to pitch against the A’s Mitch Spence. Los Angeles is a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. David Peterson gets the ball for the Mets to battle Jose Soriano for the Angels. New York is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Philadelphia Phillies at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Mariners turn to Bryce Miller to duel against the Phillies’ Kolby Allard. Seattle is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Week 9 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game.  The Saskatchewan Roughriders host the Edmonton Elks on the CBS Sports Network at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Roughriders are a 4-point favorite with a total of 51.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 08/02/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Aug 02, 2024

The Friday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET. Erick Fedde takes the mound for his debut with the Cardinals to pitch against Javier Assad for the Cubs. St. Louis is a -115 money-line road favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Arizona plays in Pittsburgh with the Diamondbacks tapping Brandon Pfaadt to face the Pirates' Luis L. Ortiz. The Diamondbacks are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Detroit hosts Kansas City on Apple TV+  with Tarik Skubal getting the ball for the Tigers to go against Cole Ragans for the Royals. The Tigers are a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Washington to play the Nationals on Apple TV+ at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Brewers send out the newly acquired Frankie Montas to challenge the Nationals’ Jake Irvin. Milwaukee is a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.The New York Yankees play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:05 p.m. ET. Marcus Stroman takes the hill for the Yankees to battle Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays. New York is a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. Cincinnati is at home against San Francisco with the Reds turning to Andrew Abbott to face a Giants’ starting pitcher yet to be named. The Reds are a -111 money-line favorite at BetOnline with a total of 9.5. Baltimore visits Cleveland with Dean Kremer getting the ball for the Orioles to pitch against Carlos Carrasco for the Guardians. The Orioles are a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves send out Spencer Schwellenbach to duel against a Marlins starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Boston Red Sox play in Texas against the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. Kutter Crawford gets the assignment for the Red Sox to go against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Rangers. Boston is a -120 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. Minnesota plays at home against Chicago with the Twins turning to Joe Ryan to pitch against the White Sox’s Davis Martin. The Twins are a -298 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston is at home against Tampa Bay with Yusei Kikuchi making his first start for the Astros to go against Shane Baz for the Rays. The Astros are a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Mets are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. The Mets send out Paul Blackburn to challenge an Angels’ starting pitcher yet to be named. Los Angeles is a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Three more MLB games start at 9:40 p.m. ET. Seattle hosts Philadelphia with Bryan Woo getting the ball for the Mariners to face Tyler Phillips for the Phillies. The Mariners are a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8. San Diego plays at home against Colorado with the Padres turning to Randy Vasquez to duel against the Rockies’ Austin Gombert. The Padres are a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Los Angeles travels to Oakland with Gavin Stone taking the mound for the Dodgers to pitch against Joey Estes for the A’s. The Dodgers are a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.Week 9 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Montreal Alouettes play in Hamilton Tiger-Cats on the CBS Sports Network at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Alouettes are a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 49. 

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2024 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Aug 01, 2024

2024 Southeastern Conference PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC WinnerTexas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC WinnerOle Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC WinnerAlabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC WinnerLSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC WinnerMissouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC WinnerTennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC WinnerTexas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC WinnerAuburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC WinnerOklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC WinnerKentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC WinnerArkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC WinnerFlorida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC WinnerSouth Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC WinnerMississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC WinnerVanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC WinnerCoaching ChangesAlabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer InMississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby InTexas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko InGeorgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NFL and CFL Previews and Odds - 08/01/24

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Aug 01, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NFLX, MLB, and CFL action.The 2024 NFL preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The Houston Texans play against the Chicago Bears on ABC and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The Texans are a 1-point favorite with the total set at 31 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Major League Baseball has five games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians host the Baltimore Orioles. The Guardians are on a three-game winning streak after their 5-0 victory in Detroit against the Tigers on Wednesday. The Orioles have won two games in a row with their 10-4 win against Toronto yesterday. Ben Lively gets the ball for Cleveland to face a starting pitcher yet to be named for Baltimore. Both teams are priced as a money-line favorite at -110 at BetMGM.The Kansas City Royals travel to Detroit to play the Tigers. The Royals are on a three-game winning streak after their 10-3 win in Chicago against the White Sox on Wednesday. The Tigers have lost three games in a row after their defeat against the Guardians yesterday. Kansas City taps Seth Lugo to pitch against Detroit’s Keider Montero. The Royals are a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves are on a two-game winning streak after a 6-2 victory at Milwaukee yesterday. The Marlins ended a two-game losing streak with their 6-2 victory at Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Atlanta to go against Max Meyer for Miami. The Braves are a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Chicago Cubs are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Cubs ended their two-game losing streak with a 13-4 win at Cincinnati on Wednesday. The Cardinals have won two games in a row after their 10-1 victory against Texas yesterday. Chicago taps Shota Imanaga to challenge St. Louis’ Sonny Gray. The Cubs are a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under at BetMGM of 8. The Los Angeles Angels host the Colorado Rockies at 9:38 p.m. ET. The Angels lost for the fourth time in their last six games in a 2-1 loss at home to the Rockies yesterday. The Rockies ended a five-game losing streak with the victory. Carson Fulmer takes the hill for Los Angeles to battle Ryan Feltner for Colorado. The Angels are a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.Week 9 in the Canadian Football League kicks off with one game. The British Columbia Lions play in Winnipeg against the Blue Bombers at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Lions were on a five-game winning streak before their 25-24 upset loss at Calgary as a 4.5-point favorite back on July 21st. The Blue Bombers have lost two games in a row after their 16-14 loss in overtime at Toronto on Saturday. British Columbia is a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck — Frank.

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College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.CINCINNATI: My biggest question regarding the Bearcats in my deep dive on this team last year was if former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time? After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield, who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville, where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters were back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. The Bearcats were making their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. It was rough last year. Cincinnati dropped to 3-9 last season while winning only once in their nine games in conference play. They failed to score even 20 points in four of those losses to Big 12 opponents. Satterfield responded in the offseason by being extremely aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 14 new players on defense to complement four returning starters from a group that ranked 100th and 93rd in the FBS by allowing 30.0 Points-Per-Game and 402.8 total Yards-Per-Game. After losing defensive coordinator Bryan Brown, who took the same position at Ole Miss, Satterfield tapped longtime Iowa State linebacker coach Tyson Veldt to install the Cyclones’ 3-3-5 defense that usually rolls with three safeties. Transfer additions are also littered on offense, with the most impactful potentially being quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who passed for 1587 yards and added 276 rushing yards in ten games last year. The 6’3, 235-lb, redshirt sophomore has a big arm with scrambling abilities. He will be protected by an offensive line that returns its top six players. But banking on the transfer portal is precarious since team chemistry is never a given — and there is a reason these players from Power Four conferences decided the grass was greener on the other side of the street. Satterfield has middling results at Louisville, which is a comparable program to the Bearcats. Cincinnati should be this year simply because the 2024 season was destined for a step back. But things could go sideways pretty quickly. COASTAL CAROLINA: With quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to North Carolina State after leading the Chanticleer offense for the last four seasons, this is a new era for this program in the second year under head coach Tim Beck. Coastal Carolina finished 8-5 last season with McCall missing six games. The conventional wisdom is that this team is poised to take a step back after catching lightning in a bottle with McCall and previous head coach Jamey Chadwell who moved on to Liberty last year. Maybe. Beck, the previous offensive coordinator at North Carolina State, has 66 new players on campus. Welcome to the transfer portal era. Hasty conclusions one way or another will likely be hasty.COLORADO: The Buffaloes started last season hot by winning their first three games while scoring 41 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But the overwhelming hype then crashed to rock bottom with Colorado losing eight of their last nine games in a 4-8 campaign in their last year in the Pac-12. The offense collapsed from a lack of depth and eventually got exposed by opposing coaches. In the last month of the season, they scored only 20.3 PPG. The Buffaloes scored 37.8 PPG in their wins but only 23.4 PPG in their losses. Senior quarterback Shedeur Sanders is a good quarterback who threw for 3230 yards. Two-way player Travis Hunter is dynamic at wide receiver. But head coach Deion Sanders needs to address some basic fundamentals still with the roster. The offensive line remains a significant liability. The 56 sacks allowed were the second-most in the FBS, although Sanders deserves some of that blame for holding on to the ball too long (perhaps, justifiably, to make big plays). This offense could not run the ball either, as they ranked 130th in the BFS by averaging only 68.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Once again, Coach Prime was very aggressive in the transfer portal with several new additions to the skill positions. The offensive line was a complete rebuild from the portal and high school recruits. The defense remains a substantial problem. Colorado surrendered 453.3 total YPG, which resulted in 34.8 PPG, ranking 127th and 121st in the nation. The biggest is the defensive line as well. The Buffaloes ranked 107th in the nation by surrendering 176.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers generated 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry against them. Six starters are back from that unit, who will be joined by at least 23 transfers. No one can accuse Sanders of not pounding the pavement to improve the talent base. His new offensive and defensive coordinators, Pat Shurmur and Rob Livingstone, are veteran NFL coaches. But until the offensive line can protect the quarterback and that side of the ball can establish some kind of rushing attack while the defense can slow down teams, avoiding Hunter in the secondary by simply running the ball down their throat, Colorado is not going to be competitive as they make their return to the Big 12.FLORIDA ATLANTIC: The Owls were a disappointment last year under first-year head coach Tom Herman. After two straight 5-7 seasons that got Willie Targatt fired in his third year with the program, FAU was only 4-8 last year after dropping their final four games. Moving up to the American Athletic Conference from Conference USA proved difficult for this program which has lost 29 games in a row against Power Five competition. The offense took a step back under Herman as well with the Owls only scoring 23.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 87th in the nation, after scoring 29.8 PPG the year prior. A Week Three injury to starting quarterback Casey Thompson did not help matters as former Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson was not ready to run the offense. Herman is trying to be patient and improve the team’s in-state recruiting — but he was more aggressive with the transfer portal in the offseason in an attempt to improve the talent level of the roster. Six transfers add depth to the defensive line. Six more transfers bolster a wide receiver room that does not return a starter — and their best offensive player, LaJohntay Wester, left for Colorado. The quarterback room lost three players in the offseason — but Herman hopes he found an answer in dual-threat Cam Fancher who was a two-year starter at Marshall. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. in hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. But the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to the elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. GEORGIA TECH: Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. Georgia Tech upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia all on the road before beating Central Florida by a 30-17 score in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a 7-6 record (and 5-3 in the ACC). For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office. But a brutal schedule awaits with every opponent on the roster making the postseason last year. JACKSONVILLE STATE: Last year, I wondered if the Gamecocks could become the next debutante from the FCS to find immediate success at the FBS level. Not only did head coach Rich Rodriguez oversee a 9-4 record, they became the first former FCS program to win a bowl game in their first season (0-4 previously) when they survived giving up three defensive touchdowns in a 34-31 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl. No one will question Rodriguez’s offensive chops as one of the originators of zone reads and spread offenses. The surprising dynamic of last year’s team was just how good the defense is still despite the jump-up in competition to the FBS level and Conference USA. Jacksonville State held their opponents to 22.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Zac Alley did such a good job that he impressed Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables to poach him as the Sooners’ next defensive coordinator. Rodriguez tapped long-time defensive analyst at Tulsa, Luke Olson, to run the defense this season. Rodriguez must replace a starting quarterback, his top two running backs, and his two top wide receivers from last year — but that is not as large a hurdle as it appears. He always rotates his players on both sides of the ball so experienced players return. He played the hot hand at quarterback last season — and former Nebraska transfer Logan Smothers is back after accounting for 13 touchdowns last year. Rodriguez also brought in several transfers including former UConn starter Zion Turner. Don’t underestimate Rodriguez’s ability to find dual-threat QBs and speedy players at the skill positions that fit his unique offense. He continues to find these players at the lower division levels — but now he has added several FBS and Power Five conference talent to fill these roles. Last year’s team was still dominated by players recruited to play at the FCS level. Now Rodriguez has assembled a roster of players primarily recruited by FBS rivals.MIAMI (FL): The criticism of the Hurricanes in the two seasons under head coach Mario Cristobal has been that the sum has rarely been greater than the parts. It is hard to argue with that. Despite improving the talent base through recruiting and using the transfer portal, Miami (FL) has just a 12-13 record in the last two years. The offense is scoring fewer points and gaining fewer yards than they were in the final season under previous head coach Manny Diaz. The other side of the ball has improved — the Hurricanes ranked 24th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 321.6 total Yards-Per-Game. However, Miami (FL) surrendered 32.4 Points-Per-Game against teams ranked in ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 50. Cristobal’s game management has been questionable. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. In their four losses decided by seven points, the Hurricanes blew a second-half lead in each contest. The defense returns only five of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. With five starters back, Cristobal brought in seven additional players in the transfer portal who have starting experience with FBS programs. This side of the ball lost three players to the NFL, including safeties Kamren Kinchens and James Williams. The offense returns five starters — but there is plenty of excitement for two impact transfers from the Pac-12. Running back Damien Martinez rushed for 1185 yards as an All-Pac 12 honoree for Oregon State. But the success of this team will depend on how effectively the coaching staff can put quarterback Cam Ward into a position to succeed. Originally a recruit at Incarnate Word, the fifth-year senior has passed for 6963 yards the last two seasons for Washington State while completing 65.5% of his passes with 48 touchdowns. Ward has a loaded wide receiver room. A question will be whether or not Cristobal and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will adapt their schemes to Ward’s skillset or ask him to fit into their system. MINNESOTA: There is a very good chance that the Golden Gophers will be better than their record as they draw a brutal schedule in the revamped Big Ten. After two straight 9-4 campaigns, Minnesota took a step back last year with a 6-7 record — although they did beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 30-24 score. The Golden Gophers could not pass the ball last season under sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. They ranked 123rd in the nation by averaging only 143.4 passing Yards-Per-Game. Kaliakmanis left for Rutgers as head coach P.J. Fleck brought in Max Brosmer who led the FCS in passing yards for New Hampshire last season. Brosmer grew into the job during spring practice and was named a team captain by his teammates. Fleck will still operate a run-first attack on offense with talented sophomore running back Darius Taylor who rushed for 808 yards in six games before getting injured. The offensive line is a strength with four starters returning. The defense took a step back last season after ranking eighth in total yards allowed in 2022 — they fell to 54th in the nation last season by giving up 368.4 total YPG. Eight starters return — but Fleck had to find a new defensive coordinator after Joe Rossi left to take the same job at Michigan State. Former James Madison defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman comes in after coaching linebackers at Rutgers last year. The ceiling for this program is not as high as several of their Big Ten opponents because Fleck is simply not able to recruit with those national powers at Minnesota — but the floor is pretty high under Fleck. If Brosmer offers a significant upgrade at quarterback and the defense improves from last year’s “floor,” the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous out. NEBRASKA: A new head coach, yet the same buzzard’s luck for the Cornhuskers, who have now endured seven straight losing seasons while posting a 5-21 record in their last 26 games decided by one scoring possession. Nebraska went 5-7 in the first season under head coach Matt Rhule after losing their last four games. Four of their losses were by just three points — and three of those losses were in games where a late interception set up their opponent to score on a game-ending field goal. In those three losses, the Cornhuskers only allowed 13 points in those contests — so the defense is not to blame. Under former Syracuse defensive coordinator Tony White, Nebraska ranked 13th and 11th in the nation by surrendering just 18.3 Points-Per-Game and 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Seven starters are back from that group, including three of the top four tacklers. The problem was on the other side of the ball, where the Cornhuskers ranked 120th by scoring 18.0 PPG and tied for 115th by generating just 312.8 total YPG. Rhule attacked this weakness, five-star blue-chipper Dylan Raiola, who was previously committed to Georgia. He should start under center immediately and stabilize a unit that led the nation with 31 turnovers last year. Rhule is committed to developing a winning culture in Lincoln that does not get dependent on the transfer portal. He brought in only eight transfer players, with only three of them seniors. In his previous successful stints at Temple and Baylor, those teams improved an average of five more wins in his second season. And while Rhule’s teams have just a 1-14 record in games decided by one possession in his Year One, that mark improves to 12-11 in Year Two under his leadership. The Cornhuskers only got outgained by -10.0 net YPG in Big Ten play last year despite a 3-6 record. The offense can only improve — and the defense should remain stout. But Nebraska football still has a hill to climb to change the losing mindset that has afflicted this program since the disastrous Scott Frost era. NEVADA: This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. After two straight 2-10 seasons, the program moved on from Wilson and brought in another defensive coach in Jeff Choate who had been the co-defensive coordinator at Texas for the last three seasons. On paper, the hire makes sense since Choate has been an assistant coach for Mountain West Conference programs — and he was the former head coach at Montana State before taking them to the FCS Semifinals in 2019. But it’s a Herculean assignment to revive a program that is one of the clear losers in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. Wilson was not able to clean up the defense that ranked 123rd in the FBS last year by allowing 441.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense collapsed the last two years — they scored 18.8 Points-Per-Game in 2022 before falling to 17.3 PPG (T-124th) last year. The Wolf Pack will be the underdog in almost all their games — but they could be dangerous relative to point spread expectations. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Nevada does have many blue-chip transfers come in from Power Five conferences looking to make a name for themselves in Reno. It could be worse, from a talent perspective. NORTH CAROLINA: Another season under head coach Mack Brown, and another underwhelming record. In his five seasons back with the program, the Tar Heels have not won more than nine games. They have reached only one ACC Championship Game. Despite having the number three pick in the April NFL Draft at quarterback in Drake Maye, North Carolina finished with only an 8-5 record including a 4-4 mark in conference play. Once again, the defense failed to meet expectations of their blue-chip potential as the unit ranked 94th in the nation by giving up 404.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Eight opponents scored at least 30 points against them. Brown relieved Gene Chizik of his duties after the season and tapped Geoff Collins to be his third defensive coordinator in four years. Seven starters return along with nine of the 16 players who were on the field for at least 300 snaps last season. Brown continued to be aggressive in the transfer portal as he brought in senior quarterback Max Johnson from Texas A&M. He will compete with redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell for the starting quarterback job after playing five games last year including their bowl game. Either way, the quarterback position is taking a step back. The wide receiver room is stacked and running back Omarion Hampton is a tackle-breaking machine who ran for 1504 yards last year. But the offensive line replaces five of their top six players on the depth chart.  OKLAHOMA: The Sooners rebounded from their first losing season since 1998 to go 10-3 last year in the second season under head coach Brent Venables. The former defensive coordinator in Norman under Bob Stoops before coordinating the defense at Clemson under Dabo Swinney pulled off his third straight top-ten recruiting class. But his teams have lost seven of their ten games decided by one scoring possession. Now with Oklahoma making their debut in the SEC, I have concerns that the roster that Venables has assembled is not ready for that level of competition week in and week out. Holes on both sides of the line can be covered up in Big 12 play — but that won’t fly in this conference. The interior defensive linemen averaged 291 pounds in the spring game. The offensive line is being completely rebuilt with all five starters gone from last season. Venables has done a complete 180 flip from his criticism of Deion Sanders’ use of the transfer portal — and he brought in five transfers on the offensive line who have 114 career starts. Talent and certainly cohesion remain questions with that group. Venables turns to former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold at quarterback after senior Dillon Gabriel chose to spend his last season in college playing for Oregon. The wide receiver room is loaded — and the Sooners have a talented running back room. But this style of play with four wide receivers on the field most of the time may not be conducive to success in the SEC. The pass-happy attack does no favors for the defense either. Eleven of the top 13 tacklers return — and the linebackers and defensive backs appear to be elite, on paper. But this group ranked only 77th in the nation by surrendering 389.4 Yards-Per-Game last year with that group getting exposed often in the second half of the year. This was the unit Venables was supposed to fix — and he did fire defensive coordinator Ted Roof in the offseason. Defensive backs coach Jay Valai got promoted to co-defensive coordinator along with former aide at Clemson Zac Alley who ran the defense at Jacksonville State last season. With perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, there is a lot of pressure on this program and Venables, in particular. SMU: The Mustangs were very active in the transfer portal last offseason with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. Preston Stone developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the country — and the junior returns along with seven other starters on offense. But it was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC. While the Mustangs won all 11 of their games against Group of Five teams, all three of their losses last season were to Power Five conference foes — and they only averaged 14.0 Points-Per-Game in those games and never topped 17 points. They have lost nine of their last ten games against Power Five teams. TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16  is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 10-33 in the last four seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Third-year head coach Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure. Now Drayton is trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players developed then leaving the program for greener pastures. The Owls return only 10 starters with many of their best players entering the transfer portal. Quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice, although I’m not sure that loss is as bad as advertised. Temple only scored 21.1 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 107th in the FBS, under the son of the Hall of Famer’s leadership. Drayton has brought in 43 new players this season. The defense ranked 124th in the nation by surrendering 35.7 PPG. Five starters return — and Drayton added 20 transfer players. The problem is that Temple is on the wrong end of the talent transfer. Seven of those 20 transfers on defense are from junior college programs. And while diamonds in the rough can be found in the juco ranks, relying on these players is not the formula for success at the FBS level. Drayton seems to have improved the culture that sank under Carey. But after getting outgained by -67 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play in 2022, the Owls took a step back last year by getting outgained by -96 YPG. WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos fired head coach Tim Lester after a 5-7 record in 2022 which was the program’s first losing season since 2013. Lester oversaw a 37-32 record in Kalamazoo, but the administration may have been concerned about a stalling offense that scored 21 or fewer points in nine games. They tapped Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor as their new head coach banking on his resume that included stints in the NFL and Notre Dame as an assistant coach. Yet Western Michigan dropped to 4-8 last year with the offense scoring 17 or fewer points in five of their eight losses. Perhaps the Broncos were destined for an ugly rebuilding season with just ten starters returning last year. But now Taylor is replacing both his coordinators in his second season. Defensive coordinator Lou Esposito left the program after 11 seasons on staff to become the co-defensive coordinator at Memphis before eventually taking the defensive line coach job at Michigan. Offensive coordinator Billy Cosh left to become the head coach at Stony Brook. Did these coaches leave because these were better long-term opportunities? Or were they abandoning ship from a program in decline that lost seven games by 13 or more points and four by 24 or more points? Taylor has more experience this season with 17 returning starters including senior quarterback Hayden Wolff who completed 65.5% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and five interceptions. But after 22 previous starts at Old Dominion before transferring into the program onto a team that completed 49.9% of their passes, why wasn’t he given the keys to the offense before the last five games of the season? Taylor is trying to build a new identity for this team while taking his lumps in the transfer portal. What are the realistic expectations of this program in the world of NIL and the transfer portal?WISCONSIN: The Badgers come off a disappointing 7-6 season last year under first-year head coach Luke Fickell did not seem to get better results than the previous year’s team that all finished 7-6 which led to Paul Chryst getting fired in early October of that year. The excuses were flying. Injuries impacted the offense. Fickell was disappointed with some of the assistant coaches (that he fired) — so he brought in four new assistant coaches in the offseason. There was a focus in the offseason to get faster, longer, and more athletic on defense which Fickell attempted to address in the transfer portal. But there were deeper issues last year which Fickell will be held to account. Team chemistry hit rock bottom after a mid-November 14-point loss to Northwestern. The hiring of offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install his up-tempo Air Raid system seemed like an odd fit for this program that has enjoyed years of success as a physical team with great offensive lines and tough defenses that thrive in colder weather. The players struggled to pick up the new schemes that did not appear to be a great fit for the talent available. The unit lost their identity (for example, they rarely had the quarterback under center, leading to poor execution in short-yardage situations when being in shotgun was disadvantageous). An offense that ranked 76th in the nation by scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game two years ago took another step back by scoring only 23.5 PPG last year, ranking 91st in the FBS. Perhaps another year of learning the system will help things click this season. And, once again, Fickell used the portal to add talent at quarterback by tapping Tyler Van Dyke from Miami (FL). But like Tanner Mordecai coming in from SMU last year, is Fickell simply finding retreads from other programs? Van Dyke got benched by the Hurricanes near the end of the season after a four-game stretch where he turned the ball over 11 times. To his credit, he did not throw an interception in his final two games of the season while throwing for 617 yards — but questions about his consistency remain. With a brutal schedule that features Alabama in non-conference along with USC, Oregon, and Penn State, things could unravel quickly if chemistry issues remain or the offense does not improve. Best of luck  — Frank.

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Will the Real Robbie Ray (for 2024) Please Stand Up?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

While there is a logjam in the National League wildcard race, the San Francisco Giants went into the final day in July only five games behind Arizona San Diego for the third and final wildcard spot. Don’t count manager Bob Melvin’s team out quite yet as they have endured several injuries this season. They may have one of the best starting rotations in baseball for the stretch run in the next two months. Logan Webb is steady and Blake Snell seems to have captured his outstanding form as he usually does midseason. Yet it was the return of Robbie Ray from Tommy John surgery that should have the San Francisco faithful excited. In his first game pitching for the Giants last Wednesday, the left-hander settled down from a wobbly first inning to give up only one earned run in five innings in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. There were several highly encouraging takeaways from that performance. His command was good as he walked only two batters. The velocity on his four-seam fastball reached 95.2 miler per hour which was his highest mark since July of 2022. All three of his pitches played a part in his 22 whiffs. He got nine whiffs from his four-seamer, another six from his slider, and then seven from his curveball. The velocity on his slider was up three to four miles per hour from 2022, peaking at 90 mph against the Dodgers. He added a wrinkle to his curveball with knuckle-curve variation. Ray is a former Cy Young award winner. If that effort was his new floor after only pitching once last year before his arm injury, then the sky is the limit for him and the Giants moving forward this season. In his last full season in 2022 for Seattle, Ray had a 12-12 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Those numbers look even better in hindsight since the baseball was livelier that season. He won the American League Cy Young Award the previous year with a 13-7 record, a 2.84 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He led the league with 248 strikeouts in his 193 1/3 innings. Pitching so well after his extended absence from facing Major League hitting gave many (including us) that he was poised for another strong effort against the Oakland A’s in his second start of the season on Tuesday. Yet Ray gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings before getting yanked by Melvin. He gave up seven hits and walked three batters. His whiff rate dropped to only eleven. His four-seam fastball was still upstairs, yet it was the decline of his curveball that was most noticeable from his excellent effort against the Dodgers. He only threw six of his fifteen curveballs for strikes. Did he just have a bad start against the A’s, or was the initial performance against the Dodgers the outlier performance? Certainly, the Giants want to know. So do bettors. It seems like his command of his curveball is key. If that pitch is being thrown for strikes, then hitters cannot sit on his four-seam fastball. If is not hitting the zone, even Oakland can rough him up.Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/31/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Miami Marlins at 12:10 p.m. ET. Taj Bradley gets the ball for the Rays to pitch against Roddery Munoz for the Marlins. Tampa Bay is a -250 money-line favorite at BetMGM with the total set at 7.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 12:35 p.m. ET. Baltimore plays at home against Toronto with the Orioles tapping Grayson Rodriguez to face the Blue Jays’ Paolo Espino. The Blue Jays are a -225 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. Philadelphia is at home against New York with Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound for the Phillies to go against Nestor Cortes, Jr. for the Yankees. The Phillies are a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5 (all further odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Minnesota Twins travel to New York to play the Mets at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Twins turn to Pablo Lopez to challenge the Mets’ Luis Severino. Minnesota is a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 2:10 p.m. ET. Atlanta plays in Milwaukee with Chris Sale getting the start for the Braves to battle against Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. The Braves are a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. Kansas City is in Chicago to play the White Sox with the Royals sending out Brady Singer to duel against the White Sox’s Drew Thorpe. The Royals are a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Texas Rangers at 2:15 p.m. ET. Michael McGreevy takes the mound for the Cardinals to pitch against Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. St. Louis is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Washington Nationals at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks tap Zac Gallen to face the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore. Arizona is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners visit Boston to play the Red Sox at 4:10 p.m. ET. George Kirby takes the ball for the Mariners to battle Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. Seattle is a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Reds send out Nick Loyola to challenge the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Cincinnati is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 8:10 p.m. ET. Framber Valdez takes the hill for the Astros to duel against Martin Perez for the Pirates. Houston is a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Padres turn to Dylan Cease to face the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. San Diego is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:38 p.m. ET. Davis Daniel gets the ball for the Angels to challenge Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -140 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants host the Oakland A’s at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Giants tap Logan Webb to pitch against the A’s Ross Stripling. San Francisco is a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jul 30, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET. Gavin Williams gets the ball for the Guardians to face a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Tigers. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles tap Corbin Burnes to take the mound to pitch against the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt. Baltimore is a -198 money-line favorite with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the New York Yankees at 6:40 p.m. ET. Aaron Nola gets sent out to the hill for the Phillies to go against Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Philadelphia is a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Rays turn to Jeffrey Springs to make his season debut coming off the injured list to challenge the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. Tampa Bay is a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. Chicago plays in Cincinnati with Justin Steele getting the starting assignment for the Cubs to battle a starting pitcher for the Reds yet to be determined. The Cubs are a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. New York hosts Minnesota with the Mets turning to Sean Manaea to duel against the Twins’ David Festa. The Mets are a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Seattle is in Boston with Luis Castillo taking the mound for the Mariners to face the recently acquired James Paxton for the Red Sox. The Mariners are a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. The Rangers send out Max Scherzer to pitch against the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn. Texas is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.Three ML games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. Kansas City plays in Chicago with Michael Wacha getting the start for the Royals to go against Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox. The Royals are a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta is in Milwaukee with neither the Braves nor the Brewers yet to declare their starting pitchers for that game. Houston plays at home against Pittsburgh with the Astros tapping Hunter Brown to duel against a Pirates’ starting pitcher yet to be named.The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:38 p.m. ET. Griffin Canning gets the ball for the Angels to challenge Cal Quantrill for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. Arizona hosts Washington with the Diamondbacks turning to Ryne Nelson to battle the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The Diamondbacks are a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Los Angeles is in San Diego with Tyler Glasnow taking the hill for the Dodgers to face Matt Waldron for the Padres. The Dodgers are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Giants send out Robbie Ray to make his second start of the season against the A’s J.P. Sears. San Francisco is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

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Ranking the Top 5 Quarterbacks in the NFL

by Vegas Writer

Monday, Jul 29, 2024

As NFL training camps are in full swing now, I started thinking about who my TOP 5 QUARTERBACKS are heading into the regular season. And while it pains me to leave Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott off the list, he didn't make the list. Nor did the Miami Dolphins' newest high-priced signal-caller, Tua Tagovailoa, or Houston Texans youngster C.J. Stroud.But those three would have fallen somewhere in the next three.Anyhoo, if you're looking to make some season-wide wagers, some sort of quarterback future prop wagers, here are my top five NFL quarterbacks:5. AARON RODGERS: This one might cause a little bit of controversy, but he's the guy who could very well take home the MVP award this season, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, he's in his 40s. Yes, he's coming off an Achilles injury. Yes, he plays for the, ahem, New York Jets. But we're talking about a four-time MVP Super Bowl champion and a guy who knows how to get it done. He does his best work too, when he has a chip on his shoulder. Rodgers not only has the resume to back up what I'm saying, but he is in a great situation with the Jets. He's got new protection as the Jets have replaced 60% of their offensive line. Rodgers was ranked the number one quarterback in the NFL when throwing from a clean pocket over the past three seasons in Green Bay. Fact is, when he has the protection, he performs well. He has a great defense on the other side, he's got a great complement of weapons, and he's got Nathaniel Hackett. When Hackett and Rodgers were in the same system, the veteran was able to get MVP awards.4. JOSH ALLEN: This one also might be a bit controversial, because you have people who think he's fallen from his star, and others who believe he should be higher. I have Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen at number four. We know how productive Allen is. He is a great passer. He's got a huge arm. We know how dangerous he can be on the move. He ranked third in QBR and passing touchdowns outside of the pocket last season, while accounting for 74% of his team's net yards. He cannot go any higher than four because of the lack of postseason success. I am waiting for him to break through and get to the Super Bowl. And not only that, the turnover numbers are too glaring for me, 78 interceptions and 59 fumbles since 2018 again. Those mistakes, and the fact that he hasn't broken through, puts him at number four for me.3. JOE BURROW: Heading to Cincinnati for number three is Joe Burrow. This might be a little controversial because I know there are people who want to see Allen ahead of the Bengals' gun-slinger. People tend to knock Burrow for his injuries, and I understand that, because he does constantly deal with injuries. He's dealt with a calf strain and wrist injuries this past season, but when he is healthy, you cannot debate me that Burrow is an unbelievable quarterback. His career completion percentage of 68% is the highest in NFL history through a player's first four seasons. If Burrow can stay healthy, the Bengals will always be a threat in the AFC.2. LAMAR JACKSON: Here is someone with the potential of being No. 1, but it'll be hard to supplant who's already there. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is No. 2 for me. The two-time MVP is the youngest two-time MVP award winner since the merger. He's unbelievable during the regular season. His career regular season winning percentage of .753 is almost identical to Tom Brady's, which was .754. He is a dynamic dual threat. We know what Jackson can do with his legs, we know what he can do with his arms, but he can't be any higher than because of the postseason. I've watched this guy become an incredible leader, and I watched him get to the AFC Championship game last season. But there's still some stuff left to be desired when it comes to Jackson and until he and the Ravens dethrone the Chiefs, he stays at No. 2.1. PATRICK MAHOMES: Is there any doubt about this? The No. 1 quarterback in the league coming into this season is certainly Kansas City Chiefs leader Patrick Mahomes. He is one of three players in NFL history with three Super Bowls and two MVPs. Tom Brady and Joe Montana, are the other two and they needed 11 and 12 years to get it done, respectively. Mahomes has done it in seven years, and during that span, 219 touchdown passes. 28,424 passing yards. Perspective, that's 284.24 football fields of passing yards. That's six miles of passing yards. Get the point?

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jul 29, 2024

The Monday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of their doubleheader at 3:05 p.m. ET. The recently acquired Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles after getting traded by Tampa Bay against Yariel Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Baltimore is a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 9 (all odds from DraftKings). The second game of their doubleheader starts at 6:05 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays call back up Bowden Francis from the minor leagues to pitch against a starting pitcher for the AL East first-place Orioles' starting pitcher yet to be named. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Cleveland travels to Detroit with Tanner Bibee taking the ball for the Guardians to face Jack Flaherty for the Tigers. The AL Central's first-place Guardians are a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Philadelphia plays at home against New York with the NL East's first-place squad tapping Zack Wheeler to battle against a Yankees pitcher yet to be determined. Three MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. New York is at home against Minnesota with Jose Quintana taking the mound for the Mets to go against Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins. The Mets are a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Boston hosts Seattle with the Red Sox turning to Nick Pivetta to challenge the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. The Red Sox are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Chicago plays at Cincinnati with the Cubs sending out Jameson Taillon to battle the Reds’ Carson Spiers. The Cubs are a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Texas Rangers are in St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Rangers to duel against Andrew Pallante for the Cardinals. Texas is a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. Kansas City visits Chicago, with the Royals turning to Alex Marsh to face the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. The Royals are a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Milwaukee plays at home against Atlanta, with Colin Rea getting the ball for the Brewers to pitch against Grant Holmes getting tapped out of the bullpen to make his first start of the season for the Braves. The Brewers are a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Pittsburgh plays in Houston with the Pirates turning to Paul Skenes to challenge the Astros’ Jake Bloss. The Pirates are a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the Washington Nationals to close the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks to battle against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. Arizona is a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.

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Copa Libertadores Futures 2024 (Knockout Rounds)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The 2024 Copa Libertadores group stage has ended and there are plenty of familiar faces left in this competition who always make deep runs in this tournament, but there have also been a few surprise teams making it out of the group stage as well. Now with the Round of 16 matches set and ready to begin on August 13, it is time to see who still has the best chance of making a deep run to the final to lift the trophy. To Win Outright Flamengo +350: Flamengo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the best chance to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo was picked as the team with the best chance to win in a Copa Libertadores article prior to the group stage starting, and they still have a very good chance at winning this competition as they have one of the more talented squads in all of South America. The price has not changed from +350 prior to the 2024 edition of the competition starting. Flamengo is currently one of the top teams in the Brasileirao this season, fighting for the title, and this is a competition they are going to be focused on winning as it is the most desired trophy by these bigger clubs. Flamengo has not won many trophies recently so motivation is going to be high in this tournament, and this is a competition they have had a lot of success in over recent years. They have appeared in the Final in 2 of the last 3 seasons, winning the trophy just 2 seasons ago, and they have won the competition twice in the last 5 seasons as well. Flamengo always makes a deep run in this tournament and with the talent they have in their squad, they are still the best team in the competition this season. There is value at this price for Flamengo to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +400: Palmeiras is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is another club that has had a lot of success in this tournament in recent years, making 2 appearances in the Final over the last 4 seasons and winning both times, but they have not made an appearance in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 2 seasons and their team is not as strong this season. They have won the Brasileirao Title the last 2 straight seasons, but they have lost some of their talent this year and have struggled in the league. They still topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16. They will have to face another club from Brasil in their first match, playing against Botafogo, and Botafogo has been a very good team over the last 2 seasons. Botafogo was leading the title race last season before allowing Palmeiras back in it late in the year, and Botafogo is right at the top of the table in the Brasileirao once again this season. They have also won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Palmeiras over the last 2 seasons, keeping them from scoring a goal in 2 of those matches as well. This is not a great price for a Palmeiras side that has a very tough opponent right in the Round of 16 as this team could see an early exit with their squad losing talent this year as well. Even if they do get by Botafogo, Palmeiras does not have the best squad in this competition and there are other teams that could give them trouble deeper in the tournament. Palmeiras is not the best option here to lift the trophy this season.  River Plate +450: River Plate is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is regarded as the best team in Argentina and they are definitely one of the bigger clubs with a very intimidating stadium to play in, but the results simply have not been there in any of their competitions this season to show that this is even the best team in Argentina. They struggled in the 1st phase of their domestic season as they barely topped the table by 1 point in the Copa de la Liga, but they also fizzled out in the 1st round of the playoffs, losing to the eventual champions Estudiantes. They were the clear favorite to win the LPF title this season as well, but they have struggled more in this 2nd phase of the season as they are currently sitting in 12th place after 7 matches this season in their own league table. They topped their group in the group stage of this competition at 5-1-0, but they were in a much weaker group with no clubs from Brasil or Argentina. They are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16 either as they have to face Talleres who is currently in 2nd place in the league table and has been one of the better teams in Argentina all year. River Plate has struggled against Talleres as well, losing 4 of their last 6 meetings with just 1 win in that span. River Plate does not have the best squad in this tournament so even if they get past Talleres in the first round, they are going to run into a better team eventually. They have not shown in their league matches this season either that they can dominate a stronger squad from their own league. There has only been 1 club from Argentina in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 4 seasons which was Boca Juniors last season and River Plate has not made an appearance there since 2019 when they were the runner up. They have only won the competition once in the last 8 seasons and that was back in 2018, but this is not going to be their year as they do not have the squad to do it. There is no real value in River Plate to win the competition this season.  Fluminense +700: Fluminense is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they did not play in a very strong group as there were no other clubs from Brasil or Argentina, the 2 strongest leagues in South America. They have also fallen completely out of form since the group stage and have struggled to get points in their own domestic league. Fluminense are actually the defending champions from last season as they beat Boca Juniors in the Final, but this is nowhere near the same quality team that had such a great season all around last year. They also have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 who they have struggled with a lot over the years. They will see Gremio in the Round of 16 and Gremio has not been a dominant team this season as they also lost some talent from last year, but they have been a wild card with their performances and they tend to dominate this Fluminense side. Gremio has won the last 7 straight meetings with Fluminense and Fluminense has failed to score a goal in 5 of those 7 matches. There is a very good chance that the defending champions go down in the Round of 16 but even if they do get past Gremio, they do not have the talent or depth in their squad to make a deep run in this competition. Even their win in this competition last season was the first time they have been back to the finals in 15 seasons. There is no value in Fluminense to win this competition and repeat as the champions.  Atlético Mineiro +800: Atlético Mineiro is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. They topped their group during the group stage at 5-0-1 and have been a very dominant team in this competition, but they have been starting to fall out of form recently in their domestic league. They recently hired a new manager and they have been starting to improve once again after a stretch of poor form, but they have still been very inconsistent in their matches. They have a very good squad with a lot of talent, but it has not been enough in this competition in recent years. They have struggled to get to the Final, making no appearances in the last 10 straight seasons, and they have even struggled to win the Brasileirao Title consistently. They have an easier matchup in the Round of 16, but they are still facing a club from Argentina that plays in a very strong league, and San Lorenzo also has a very good defense that can cause problems for this Atletico Mineiro attack. Even if Atletico Mineiro makes it past them, they will eventually run into a stronger team that takes them out as they usually go out before they can get to the Final. There are better teams in the tournament this year and Atletico Mineiro will fall short once again. There is no value in them to win this competition this season.  Botafogo +900: Botafogo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo does not have a history of going deep into this competition in recent years, but they have been improving a lot over the last 2 seasons. Last season, they were a huge threat in the Brasileirao all year as they led the table with a 10+ point lead for most of the season before collapsing in the final weeks, but they are back on top this season with one of the better teams in Brasil. They are going to be focused on going deep into this competition. They have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 as they are taking on Palmeiras who is one of the favorites to win the tournament, but Palmeiras has not been as good as their teams in previous years and Botafogo has actually beaten them twice in 3 matches over the last 2 seasons. Palmeiras has failed to score in 2 of those 3 meetings and Botafogo has a very good defense that is one of the best in Brasil. Botafogo has been steadily improving over the last few seasons and with the experience they gained from being one of the better teams in Brasil last year, they can draw from that in this competition and make a deep run. They have the talent in their squad and they have the defense to go far which will be very important in a competition like this. Botafogo is a true dark horse to win this competition this season, there is value in them to win at this price.  RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams in this competition and some that were not mentioned here, but in reality this competition has been dominated by a select few teams over the last few years so there is not going to be much room for these smaller clubs from weaker South American leagues to go deep. This competition has been dominated by clubs from Brasil and Argentina over the last few years as there has not been a club from another country in the last 7 straight Copa Libertadores Finals, and 9 of the 14 teams that have appeared in those finals have been from Brasil as well. Brasil is still the strongest league in all of South America with plenty of talented teams this year and it is very likely that the winner of this competition will come from the Brasileirao as they have in the last 5 straight Copa Libertadores Finals. Flamengo is still the best team in this competition and will be focused on winning trophies this year after falling short the last few seasons. Flamengo at +350 has value here as they are the most likely team to win the tournament this season, but Botafogo at +900 is also a very good dark horse as they have a great defense and will be a threat deep in the tournament. 

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